“It’s the number Wall Street is most curious about, and the one Tim Cook is least likely to reveal next Tuesday, when Apple delivers its quarterly earnings report,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
“‘I’m not very anxious in reporting a lot of numbers on Apple Watch,’ said Cook last fall, ‘because competitors look for it,'” P.E.D. reports. “So unless he changes his mind, the Street will have to make with do the estimates of Apple watchers and the contradictory results from analyses of consumer e-mail receipts—one showing Watch sales soaring, the second—swiftly denounced by Apple aficionados—showing them falling off a cliff.”
P.E.D. reports, “Today the average of the 27 analysts we’ve heard from—14 professionals and 13 independents—is a bit under 4.1 million.”
All of the analysts’ individual estimates, ranging from 2.85 million – 5.7 million, in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Maybe we’ll find out something about Apple Watch on Tuesday or maybe we won’t. If Apple wants to regain control of the narrative, they’ll at least give the analysts something useful (doesn’t have to be hard data).
For example: “We’ve sold more than X million Watches and demand continues to outstrip supply.”
I’m gonna go with more than the pundits think and a bit less than MDN thinks.
Do you want some maple syrup with that waffle TM?
ha ha I see what you did here. I also see the majority of “voters” at MDN have an IQ lower than an amoeba.
WAFL data usually correlates with mature rather new product categories, silly!
“If Apple wants to regain control of the narrative…” Dang that’s funny, thinking Apple has any interest whatsoever in this “narrative”. They’ve already played this chess match out like a year ago.
I would say a lot lot less, never saw anybody wear Apple watch on the train here in Chicago so far.
Chicago is notoriously financially challenged. What areas do you live in?
http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/December-2014/Why-Have-Poor-Neighborhoods-Grown-So-Much-in-the-Last-40-Years/
I know that they sold at least one Watch and I am happily wearing it. All these Apple haters can’t stand the thought of Apple knocking another one out of the park. (Oh yeah, the haters still think that Apple has never once had a success because they haven’t taken all the sales of all the computer devices in the world.)
Make that at least two sold, I’ve got mine.
I got my WATCH SPORT April 28 and I sold one Monday that the buyer receiver Thursday. So that’s two more.😃⌚️
Mine makes one more.
I see a trend developing…
But the Financial Times just ran a story saying time is running out on the Watch and quoted two people who returned theirs. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f328df7c-2e04-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev,traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3gOanjloL
I wonder how long it took them to track down two people who had returned a Watch? Like a lot of articles posted, I was unable to read it without paying. Not happening.
Lest we forget, the astounding “other category” spike will be telling, but maybe not to analists that couldn’t analyze their way out of a pile of dogshit.
I think this demand for sales numbers is entirely reasonable.
After all, it’s only the same as they demand from all other companies.
Oh, wait… /s
SWAG: 3B us$ = 3.75m units @ 800 US$ ASP
That’s way higher than the average selling price. I think the ASP is nearer $500. I’m feeling math challenged today. But just divide whatever the “other” category dollar increase is by $500 and we’ll have a clue how many were sold. Can’t wait to see all the math gymnastics different analysts perform after 1:30 pm Pacific Tuesday.😱⌚️💥😜
$800 is in line with what David Bressler estimated from two April polls of US Watch buyers.
http://davidbressler.com/2015/04/12/apple-watch-asp-is-really-high/
I used the $800 ASP to account for what I think is a larger Chinese luxury market, where shipments were reportedly increased at the expense of Apple store inventories. The revenue of $3b I think I got from Horace Dediu at Asymco.
One thing to expect Tuesday is no reporting of Watch total revenue or unit sales, much less a breakdown by model, those being the competitive intel held close to the vest of Tim Cook. Thus, unit sales will remain a guessing game within a game.
Dividing by $500 will give a “can’t be any greater than”, but that is at least one way to parametrize.
-hh
Apple has already said they’re not going to disclose Watch details so who cares? I think it’s silly to analyze the numbers from Wall Street analysts when we’re not going to have anything factual to compare them to.
Apple Watch owners seem particularly smug that they are the only persons that “get” the Apple Watch. Maybe others “get it” too and find little value in purchasing an Apple Watch.
Apple fanboys also deride persons who don’t “get it” as if those who don’t “get it” are too stupid to appreciate Apple Watch. Yet these same fanboys haven’t the intelligence to provide a objective and cogent set of reasons why they consider their purchase an intelligent choice. Of course, the fanboys rationalize their lack of a effective defense of their purchase because the rest if the world is too dense to comprehend their actions. This is pathetic in so many ways.
I think the reasons have been posted, Fred; perhaps you aren’t reading them.
Primarily, notifications: it is very handy to be tapped when a phone call or text message comes in. Similarly, I just drove a trip with Apple Maps; it tapped me whenever I needed to make a turn. I liked that because Siri is hard to hear when driving in a convertible.
Some like the exercise component of Watch, controlling Apple Music with it, MLB scores at a glance. There are as many reasons as there are apps.
A FitBit gives you some of these features and is cheaper, if you only want those features. Samsung Gear is obviously for that ecosystem. Pebble is for those who want a wearable that is “geeky” but doesn’t really do much.
Biggest factor against it is cost; however, it is half the cost of a phone, and you are going to buy a watch less often than a phone.
The biggest plus, or minus depending on your perspective, is to be part of a developing platform. If you want a world that is fully developed, you bought your first iPhone at a 5 or 6, and should wait several years for Watch. If you like being part of a developing world, you bought one of the original iPhones, and you need to be getting an Watch if you don’t already have one.
I sneer at the smugness of Porsche owners. Not because they “get it” and I don’t, but rather because they did get it and I can’t.