“I’m highly skeptical of the data by Slice, and I also believe it’s not representative of the growth trajectory of Apple Watch,” Alex Cho writes for Seeking Alpha. “Volume does typically drop after the initial launch of any product, but given the supply constraints, the drop may have been more pronounced. I’ve said this in the past, and I’ll continue to reiterate that Apple’s most notorious risk factor is supply chain related. They either overestimate the available capacity, or underestimate the demand. In this case, Apple Watch sales were weak due to the lack of supply.”
“For all we know, Apple could have diverted supply away from the United States and sold more of its product into the Chinese retail channel. So just because we have a downward sloping graph in one regional market doesn’t mean the same pattern is playing out in China. For all we know, Chinese sales volume could be picking up,” Cho writes. “The data from Slice is primarily supplied by people who belong in the 18-25 and 25-34 age demographic, as evidenced by mobile app hour usage by demographic. For less known apps, the data is likely to skew even further to the younger demographic. However, iPhone ownership is distributed evenly with the age distribution of the United States. Therefore, Apple loyalists above the age of 35 may show similar buying behavior to those that belong in the younger age demographic. However, the younger demographic isn’t actually the largest demographic in the United States. In fact, the biggest demographic is 35+, therefore Slice’s data could be off by a wide margin.”
“Apple Watch volumes will surprise estimates once supply chain issues have been corrected. Getting reliable data will be difficult, and we can’t gain complete confidence from third-party data sources,” Cho writes. “However, Apple isn’t really required to breakdown the sales of the Apple Watch until it reaches 10% of consolidated revenue. So, we could be flying in the dark for a while.”
Much more in the full article – recommended – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Those who are interested in actually analyzing companies vs. fomenting low-information investor sentiment against them, are those who listen to what Apple’s management tells them:
Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. – Apple CEO Tim Cook, Q113 conference call with analysts, January 23, 2013
SEE ALSO:
Why Apple must sell one Apple Watch for every 20 iPhones or something – July 13, 2015
Apple Watch online sales in the U.S. estimated at 3 million through first 3 months – July 13, 2015
Apple to release Q315 earnings, webcast live conference call on July 21st – June 29, 2015
Morgan Stanley: 10% of iPhone 5 and higher owners will buy an Apple Watch – November 20, 2014
Problem with Slice Intelligence’s data point is that it doesn’t take in account for the fact that people can now buy the Watch in the stores.
What is worse is how bad the media took this information. Apple went from 175,000 watch units sold each in the week for the month of May down to 100,000 units sold each week for the month of June. This is estimated e-receipts, yet many are probably buying the watch onsite since they have been available for a few weeks in stores now.
At any rate incredible sales growth for a GEN 1 product.
Yes sales have have gone from really sh*t to just sh*t.
Yeah, the ‘shitty sales’ blow the crap out of the 2 YEAR sales of any other wearable device in history based on low estimates generated by idiots who gave an unknown company access to data mine their emails. That’s what I base my investing knowledge on.
Bottom line is, the Apple Watch is the best selling wearable computer in history by a very, very wide margin at this point and it’s only the version 1. Compare the first iPhone to the current and you’ll see where the future is heading. Eventually Apple Watch could do to the iPhone what the iPhone did to the iPod.
Who or what entity is fomenting all this BS? The market, not so much I think. The competition, yes I believe.
re “any other wearable device”
Not just ANY, but ALL. What is it exactly? I think the figure is that three days of Apple Watch sales exceeds that of ALL others added together – for the PREVIOUS YEAR.
Apple should just get Amazon to announce that the Apple Watch is a “success” and the press will believe it. 😉
It’s true. Anything that Jeff Bezos says is gospel. He’s a chip off the old Warren Buffett. These two people know all and never make any mistakes. It has been determined by Wall Street they are not mortals.
Think about this.
Have you noticed there are no Applewatch commerciasl on tv lately…and have not been for a good month or so now.
Now wouldnt you think if apple was desperate to sell watches they would advertise more not stop advertizing It.
Considering the online Apple Store still lists a 5-7 days to ship time for the Watch Sport, you’re still looking at 2 weeks to get one if you don’t go to a local Apple Store. That says the supply chain still hasn’t caught up with demand, and therefore Apple is selling every single unit it can make as fast (or faster) than it can make them. Exactly where’s the problem?
Exactly. I sold a senior psychotherapist a 42mm Space Gray WATCH SPORT today and she has to wait 9-12 more days to get it which means hers hasn’t even been built yet. So get off the BS idea sales have slowed and use common sense to know the production ramp UP is still happening and IF equilibrium is achieved by September it will NOT LAST because the tsunami of orders for MORE WATCHes is still to come alongside all the new 6S/Plus orders and the following Holiday season.⌚️💥👀😱😜
Remember when all the analysts agreed that initial iPhone 5C sales were very poor? The reality turned out to be entirely the opposite.
How many times are analysts allowed to be hopelessly wrong before they get ignored? There seems to be no limit.
Anyone know how Slice’s figures work out for other Apple products? That said clearly someone wanting to buy a watch is going to be somewhat different to wanting a phone or an iPod, most other than the new product bandwagon brigade are going to want to study, test, and check out all the variations in the shops and thus be far more likely to buy it in the shops I would say simply because you need to determine what the use will be for you which is not so obvious as compared to a phone or iPod, even an iPad that seems obvious. it certainly is not something I would consider ordering online unless i had physically sorted all that out first and having done all that in the shop then why not order it there unless you want time to think about it. Then again Apple users (particularly those buying the watch I should think) are not typical of the type who would share their data to the likes of Slice either.
What the hell do you mean “the likes of Slice” as if they’re some kind of Communist Conspiracy to steal your first born. I’ re been happily using Slice for years and all the Slice haters here are clueless about what it is as why Slice users love it.😡😰😩😖😝😏😡