iPhone, killer

“Searching for ‘iPhone killer’ returns millions of hits,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “It’s hard to remember any phone / product / service / platform / initiative / merger / startup which was not at some point considered an iPhone killer.”

“In reality, the killers seem to have all faded away while the iPhone continues. We could just shake our heads and move on, but a deeper analysis is possible,” Dediu writes. “iPhone’s (and hence Apple’s) ascent has not caused decline in its nominal competitors. When seen in the context of the graph above, the success of the iPhone has in fact been complementary to those companies who would be its killers.”

“Consider that the iPhone drives a large portion of Google’s revenues as it is the home to many Google services and engagement through the iPhone is higher than any other platform, including Google’s own,” Dediu writes. “iPhone users tend to make better customers. In exchange Google pays a great deal for traffic acquisition on iOS devices. The placement of search on Safari is probably the biggest single cost item on Google’s income statement (estimates are a few billion dollars a year).”

Much more, including the usual excellent graphs, in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we first wrote back on April 29, 2011:

iPhone, killer.

Here are some more quotes about iPhone for your schadenfreudian enjoyment:

• “[iPhone] just doesn’t matter anymore. There are now alternatives to the iPhone, which has been introduced everywhere else in the world. It’s no longer a novelty.” – Eamon Hoey, Hoey and Associates, April 30, 2008

• “We are not at all worried. We think we’ve got the one mobile platform you’ll use for the rest of your life. [Apple] are not going to catch up.” – Scott Rockfeld, Microsoft Mobile Communications Group Product Manager, April 01, 2008

• “Microsoft, with Windows Mobile/ActiveSync, Nokia with Intellisync, and Motorola with Good Technology have all fared poorly in the enterprise. We have no reason to expect otherwise from Apple.” – Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams analyst, March 07, 2008

• Motorola’s then-Chairman and then-CEO Ed Zander said his company was ready for competition from Apple’s iPhone, due out the following month. “How do you deal with that?” Zander was asked at the Software 2007 conference. Zander quickly retorted, “How do they deal with us?” – Ed Zander, May 10, 2007

• “The iPhone is going to be nothing more than a temporary novelty that will eventually wear off.” – Gundeep Hora, CoolTechZone Editor-in-Chief, April 02, 2007

• “Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone… What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it’s smart it will call the iPhone a ‘reference design’ and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else’s marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures… Otherwise I’d advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you’ll see.” – John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, March 28, 2007

• “Even if [the iPhone] is opened up to third parties, it is difficult to see how the installed base of iPhones can reach the level where it becomes a truly attractive service platform for operator and developer investment.” – Tony Cripps, Ovum Service Manager for Mobile User Experience, March 14, 2007

• “I’m more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular… iPhone may well become Apple’s next Newton.” – David Haskin, Computerworld, February 26, 2007

• “There’s an old saying — stick to your knitting — and Apple is not a mobile phone manufacturer, that’s not their knitting… I think people overreacted to it — there was not a lot of tremendously new stuff if you think about it.” – Greg Winn, Telstra’s operations chief, February 15, 2007

• “Consumers are not used to paying another couple hundred bucks more just because Apple makes a cool product. Some fans will buy [iPhone], but for the rest of us it’s a hard pill to swallow just to have the coolest thing.” – Neil Strother, NPD Group analyst, January 22, 2007

• “I can’t believe the hype being given to iPhone… I just have to wonder who will want one of these things (other than the religious faithful)… So please mark this post and come back in two years to see the results of my prediction: I predict they will not sell anywhere near the 10M Jobs predicts for 2008.” – Richard Sprague, Microsoft Senior Marketing Director, January 18, 2007

• “The iPhone’s willful disregard of the global handset market will come back to haunt Apple.” – Tero Kuittinen, RealMoney.com, January 18, 2007

• “[Apple’s iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine… So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot.” – Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, January 17, 2007

• “The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant… Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market… Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.” – Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, January 15, 2007

• “iPhone which doesn’t look, I mean to me, I’m looking at this thing and I think it’s kind of trending against, you know, what’s really going, what people are really liking on, in these phones nowadays, which are those little keypads. I mean, the Blackjack from Samsung, the Blackberry, obviously, you know kind of pushes this thing, the Palm, all these… And I guess some of these stocks went down on the Apple announcement, thinking that Apple could do no wrong, but I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it.” – John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, January 13, 2007

• “I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed.” – Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, January 11, 2007

• “Apple will launch a mobile phone in January, and it will become available during 2007. It will be a lovely bit of kit, a pleasure to behold, and its limited functionality will be easy to access and use. The Apple phone will be exclusive to one of the major networks in each territory and some customers will switch networks just to get it, but not as many as had been hoped. As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish. The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, it will take the iPod with it.” – Bill Ray, The Register, December 26, 2006

• “The economics of something like [an Apple iPhone] aren’t that compelling.” – Rod Bare, Morningstar analyst, December 08, 2006

• “Apple is slated to come out with a new phone… And it will largely fail…. Sales for the phone will skyrocket initially. However, things will calm down, and the Apple phone will take its place on the shelves with the random video cameras, cell phones, wireless routers and other would-be hits… When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players. Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don’t exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren’t clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good.” – Michael Kanellos, CNET, December 07, 2006

• “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” – Ed Colligan, Palm CEO, November 16, 2006


    1. All those observations from 2007/2008 sound eerily similar to what is being said about the Apple Watch.

      What they tell me is that critics of Apple products, by and large, are very good at stringing 500 words together in what appears to be a knowledgeable understanding of technology, consumer wants/needs, markets, etc., but, in fact, reveal that those writers know absolutely nothing about anything they write of.

      Knowing this, I predict (because of tech/media negativity), that in three years, all of those purveyors of negativity will be eating their words (if you can still find those nabobs of negativity).

      How can i say this? History. Since the announcement of the iPhone in January, 2007 (8 short years ago), Apple has launched several new initiatives that has taken the market value of Apple from less than $86 Billion, to more than $730 Billion today. That is a hugely large disconnect from the ill-informed rhetoric emanating from WS, competitors, and the media. A disconnect so large and consistent as to make the AppleWatch a near guaranteed success, and making AAPL a resounding BUY recommendation.

  1. Soon we will have a similar list of WRONG predictions for the Apple Watch. Will Apple bashers never learn?

    By the way, the next Newton is the iPad. Another of Apple’s dismal failures. Yup.

  2. The Apple Watch could be the iPhone killer. In the future, the content/data stored or accessed by the Apple Watch will be mirror-able across many surfaces.

  3. Wow…reading through that list of old “iPhone will fail because…” quotes, it makes me think a lot of these guys just copied and pasted their 2007/2008 iPhone articles, did a find and replace to turn “iPhone” into “Apple Watch”, and then republished them in 2015.

  4. I read most of the naysayer quotes at the time and bought every aapl share I could afford.

    $$$ richer I now see the pattern repeating with the watch (and all the other stuff rumoured: TV, car, pressure iPads, iPhones )…
    Apple has a firm base and pushing ahead and the naysayers needles are still stuck in the groove…

  5. “The placement of search on Safari is probably the biggest single cost item on Google’s income statement (estimates are a few billion dollars a year).”..

    So basically if Apple decides to not allow Google Search as a listed option on Safari, Google doesn’t need to pay Apple the few billion dollars per year, reducing Apple’s operating profits (I doubt there is any operating cost to Apple for this), and iOS users can still do Google searches if they want to (or Apple risks a search discrimination case) albeit a couple more steps to get to google.com first. Sounds to me like Apple is just as dependent on Google Search for their revenue as Google may be for iOS search users.

    1. Really? do you know some basic maths?

      Calculate the percentage of 1B with how much Apple is earning. It will be around 0.025% which is a rounding error.

      Call it anything dependent…come on think a bit more guys…

      1. Did a bit more research.. According to CNBC in March, if Apple drops Google the change will be reflected as follows Current: $1Billion Payment $7.8Billion revenue from being default; After Drop: $0 Payment, $3.9Billion revenue from iOS users with the assumption that 50% will return the setting to Google. End result will be about -$2.9Billion in revenue.. Expected to be a smaller loss in terms of profit. Article:http://www.cnbc.com/id/102472838

  6. Really? do you know some basic maths?

    Calculate the percentage of 1B with how much Apple is earning. It will be around 0.025% which is a rounding error.

    Call it anything dependent…come on think a bit more guys…

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