“I am as pragmatic as the next guy when it comes to forecasting iPhone growth, but our research continues to show that Apple will still have a serious upside in iPhone growth with the iPhone 6 models well through this year, and very likely into next year, too,” Tim Bajarin writes for Re/code.
“We have very good ties to the supply chain and, if you have followed our iPhone predictions for each quarter over the last few years, you will find our iPhones predictions are pretty consistent with what Apple actually ship,” Bajarin writes. “There are three key reasons I am still optimistic about iPhone growth over this period and well into 2017-2018. The first lies in the fact Apple execs have stated that less than 20 percent of iPhone users have upgraded to the iPhone 6… There is another key issue that bodes well for Apple… In China there is a rising middle class that loves Apple. Apple products are status symbols in the country, and this demographic will drive sales of Apple products sky high in the next few years.”
“The second reason is due to what Apple calls ‘switchers.’ During the recent analysts call, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated, at least five times, that demand for iPhones by those switching from other smartphone platforms are very strong. This is not a trivial fact. Our own research shows that Apple is luring millions of Android smartphone users over to the iPhone and iOS, and we have no reason to believe this will not continue for the near future,” Bajarin writes. “As Android users move out of their two-year contracts, more and more of them will migrate to the iPhone platform. I see switchers continuing to help drive strong iPhone sales at least through early 2016.”
MacDailyNews Take: Apple is too polite (in public). In the interest of accuracy, we don’t call them “switchers,” we call them “extreme upgraders” or “red pill swallowers.” Welcome into the light, friends!
“The third reason goes under my ‘never underestimate Apple’ mantra,” Bajarin writes. “It is crazy to think Apple will not continue to innovate around the iPhone. ”
Tons more in the full article – very highly recommended, as usual – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Bajarin, as usual, is excellent. One of the very best, if not the best, Apple analysts ever.
What other company is going to keep up with Apple’s iPhone, much less beat it? Eight years on, and all the also-rans and wannabes have come up with are piss-poor facsimiles. Only Apple builds the whole widget.