“In a report published Thursday, Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha commented on Apple Inc.’s near-term iPhone strength, driven by a better-than-expected mix of iPhone 6 Plus devices,” Jayson Derrick reports for Benzinga.
“Garcha estimated iPhone volume for March rose 38 percent year-over-year to 60 million,” Derrick reports. “The analyst noted that his installed base analysis shows total iPhone users of at least 400 million.”
“Garcha also stated that around 10 percent of the iPhone installed base are indicating a preference to ‘definitely’ purchasing an Apple Watch,” Derrick reports. “This suggests initial Watch volumes could be as high as high as 40 million (versus consensus estimates of 20 million) at an average selling price of over $800 (versus consensus estimates of $500).”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: 400 million seems very conservative and that 10% is before Apple Watch lands on the wrists of friends and coworkers. That percentage will rise dramatically after Apple Watch launches.
In a survey of 3,489 people conducted in April 2007, two months before Apple launched something called the “iPhone,” ChangeWave found that nearly one-in-10 respondents (9%) said they were likely to buy an iPhone once it became available.
Extrapolate.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]
Related article:
Apple Watch, the world’s first real smart watch, will be a massive hit – September 9, 2014
Not available on your poll I’ll buy my Apple Watch when the second edition comes out. Experience over the years shows edition two of an Apple device has many more features and is supported for many more years than a first edition.
Except during the time you wait for version 2 you will be missing the experience of wearing version 1 plus you might die before version 2 even ships. 😱💥😜🚀😰😳🎉
There’s always a better version coming next as the progress of technological development and unexpected breakthroughs makes today’s impossible possible next year. Waiting for better than is possible now is a stupid futile mentality – especially when the cost of entry is only a little over $500 (including AppleCare Plus and sales tax). 💵😳🎉💥
To call it stupid and futile says far more about you than it does about me. People with the IPad one have nothing, people with the IPad 2 have a product that is still useful.
I agree with Al. I’ve always waited for the second generation iPod, iPod Touch, iPhone, iMac, etc. and they’ve always been useful for much longer than the first generation products. My one mistake was the first gen iPad, which was obsolete soon thereafter. My wife and I still use our iPad 2’s regularly.
How much utility could you derive from first year ownership?
Combine that with knowing that there will be a resale market for Apple Watch v1.0, makes my buying decision today vs next year.
Yep, and to make it really easy Apple will probably have a trade-in program like they do with other products.
And pigs could fly if they had wings. I think it’s a bit early to start throwing big numbers around about Watch before even one unit is sold. I think this type of talk is raising expectations too high and if they’re not met it will only hurt shareholders. I think these analysts should be a little more conservative at this point.
I can’t speak to units sold, although there are several valid sales models that imply unit sales greater than 20 mm units during 2015. I’m personally modeling 15 mm.
ASP is another matter. There have been 2 published buying intent (by model) surveys that (when combined with signed Apple Watch retailers) strongly imply an ASP greater than $800.
Adding on to what Gregg said:
3 phases of the Watch
Set 1: This first quarter or two
Set 2: Holiday season
Set 3: Watch version 2
This is also known as:
Early Adopter
Early Majority
… tho I think the Early Majority phase is going to be ongoing for a long time.
I’m buying the Sport model this year, then buy the AppleWatch next year. I definitely DO NOT intend on spending $10k+ on the Edition model. If anyone thinks that impresses me, you are wrong! All I’m going to do is shake my head & say ” You could have bought more Apple Stock with the $9k+”.
If they can afford to buy an Edition, they probably already own a lot of AAPL.
It’s possible some will hold out for gen 2 or 3 of the Apple Watch. But many will buy knowing full well the future generations will get better and that they will upgrade anyway.
That’s what we already do with iPhones. The Apple Watch may just go into the budget every other year or so, all depending on how much they can improve it each year.
The most convincing thing to me is that if you finance the AppleWatch Sport for one year, the cost is only a dollar a day for one year on something that will probably last three years.
That is affordable for anyone with a job who drinks coffee.
Drink water and own an Apple Watch…small sacrifice. Many can do both.
Again, the Edition is targeting the non-necessity rich only. If you are complaining about the price, then you can’t afford it, but they will still sell bunch of those. I think the watch will sell for fashion first, quick data reader use second, and third, just the plain fact that folks are kinda bored with their current everyday gadgets and are ready to tinker, talk, and show something new. That alone will sell millions. It is the perfect Christmas gift and doesn’t require a contract, could be even drone shipped in size and weight, and is considered useful at first, even if you don’t use it much after. I am waiting to see if there are lines out the door like the iPhone…that will give good indication of the hype.
Wanna sell it big? Really big? Subsidize it. Cause that is how most people buy the phones. Lol.
You sound like an American, where the concept of putting money aside for future wants has ben replaced with finance everything, and get it today. If you’ve got the money to make the payments, you’ve got the money to set aside.
Nobody, that is debt free, goes bankrupt. Nobody.
Just so you know: born in Ohio, raised in California retired to Washington.
Yes. I take the clue from our government. How much US debt has increased from OBummer? Really, being in debt is the American way now. Nobody saves crap anymore. Interest rates for savings are non existent. I’m a good american and being in debt helps our economy. This isn’t 1950. LOL
How many watches does Apple have to sell to be deemed successful? Apple recently sold its 700,000,000th iPhone! Estimated customer base is 400,000,000+. If only 200,000,000 have an iPhone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, or 6+, that’s a large potential customer base. If 10% of 200,000,000 buy an watch, that’s 20,000,000. And that’s only the present customer base and doesn’t include new Apple iPhone customers.
Apple is selling to it’s own customers that already love and enjoy Apple products. Established customers will spread the word about the unique experience provided by the watch + iPhone.
The word-of-mouth about the W+ iPhone experience will be reason enough to cause some people to switch to iPhone, with the intent to later purchase an Watch. 😀