“Apple’s Apple Watch is everywhere,” Andrew Tonner writes for The Motley Fool. “Unfortunately, the company’s underwhelming Spring Forward event last week suggests Apple’s next great product is more more sizzle than steak.”
MacDailyNews Take: We’ve iCal’ed that quote for future use!
“I think it’s worth addressing a significant question that has been largely absent from the discussion. What happens if Apple Watch fails?” Tonner writes. “Let’s start with the worst-case scenario — assessing how a complete flop on the Apple Watch’s part could impact the company’s sales and stock price… Apple Watch’s absolute failure could theoretically shave a mere 4.5% off Apple’s top-line fiscal 2015 growth rate, and that’s assuming the revenue growth figure I’m using here is updated to reflect analysts’ current estimates coming out of this week’s event. Given the impressive MacBook and Apple TV news, these estimates might lowball Apple’s estimated revenue. Again, this assumes zero Apple Watch sales, which we can probably all agree is far from likely.”
More “failure” scenarios in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Dude doesn’t get it and that’s why his quote above will be featured in our recaps of Apple Watch naysayers as each sales milestone is achieved.
With Apple’s manufacturing nearly on-demand principles, no new product can decrease their bottom line, and they can afford to R&D and launch any product they want. Not to mention, the Watch will be a success. Some poll said 69% of Americans won’t buy it.
Some people will wait to buy it until they see it in action in the wild. Just like how people saw “oh the iPad can do that?” and immediately wanted one. Also, does that survey indicate that 31% of Americans *do* want the watch? If so, that’s about 98 million watches. That sounds like a wildly successful number to me. These people can’t expect even half of Americans to buy it. Half of them are piece of shit Android settlers anyway, and Apple not only doesn’t want them, they completely shunned them by having a model starting at $10,000 just to get that community so concerned with cash to start talking about it.
Apple’s goal isn’t to be the most successful company or most successful products, it’s to have the best products, and for anyone who buys it they’ll get exactly that.
Yep. If it does “fail” it is only a lesson for the future.
That survey is mostly irrelevant, because they asked random people. Apple Watch is not targeting “generic” customers; it specifically targets iPhone owners, technically savvy mobile users who are above average in personal wealth. Potential customers for Apple Watch are ALREADY Apple’s customers (with 99% satisfaction rate). They all have an Apple ID, so Apple can do the ultimate in targeted advertising. At the time of Apple Watch release, there will be at least 300 million existing Apple customers with a compatible iPhone (5 or later). Probably closer to 350 million, after this current quarter of sales.
If only ONE out of 100 of those potential customers can’t wait until Apple Watch is released, and wants one as soon as possible, Apple has more than 3 million pre-orders before sales even begin. Think about it. Just 1% saying YES to Apple Watch makes it an early success. It’s MUCH more likely that at least 10% are “early adopters” and Apple sells (or has a waiting list for) 30 million or more by the end of June. And for the rest of the year, the likelihood of an iPhone customer buying an Apple Watch goes up, because the Apple Watch will be sitting there, on display, next to an iPhone. From the Apple Watch release date to the end of the year, Apple is likely to sell another 150 million new iPhones; if just 1-in-10 buys an Apple Watch with a new iPhone, that’s 15 million more right there. We’re using 10% to be conservative, meaning 9-in-10 (90%) don’t want one. What if 20% wants one (still just 1-in-5)? Or 30%…
These “experts” who imagine Apple Watch “flopping” don’t have any common sense, and can’t do basic math. Apple would not be releasing Apple Watch if there was even a remote change of failure. Success is guaranteed.
Way to go, ken1w! Your post was excellent.
That’s what everyone said about Microsoft back in the 90s, and it was true at the time. Just food for thought.
Nobody was highly anticipating new physical products from Microsoft year after year in any decade, let alone the 90’s.
M$ was the Kong of Vaporware!!! M$ is responsible for more vaporware than any other company; does anyone know if it holds the trademark for the term? 😀
Try, try again. The tech will get better, if that’s the issue. Its functionality can be replicated in a different type of wearable (or implantable), if that’s the issue. Or they’ll incorporate it into kitchen utensils. Whatever. Life will go on for Apple.
What happens if Motley Fool fails. Oh, wait…..
Noob!
Surveys suggested some 40-60 million iPhone customers in the US will be interested in Apple Watch. It is a natural adjunct to an iPhone that enhances the whole experience of communicating.
The quantity sold in one month is likely to be at least 10% of that number. Take that Samsung.
Warning: Extreme /shjtt (satire/humor/joke/tall tale).
First of all the watch will fail. Apple could sell a billion of them in the first 6 months of its release and the pundits will consider it a failure. Heck Apple could become the world’s largest and most valuable company and there would still be pundits continuously chanting out the “Apple is doomed” mantra as they have done for years.
The price of Apple stock if the watch fails, it dropped the day after the announcement. The price of Apple’s stock has dropped so much since Tim Cook has taken the helm, it was put on the Down Jones Index.
Tim Cook of course would be toast as a CEO, and Jay Morrison would come back to MDN and be exonerated with “we were so wrong to doubt you Jay, please forgive us. I have a sister, would you come over and fornicate with her?”
Microsoft would reintroduce the Zune, calling it the Zune Sex (skipping a few virgins). Speaking of Microsoft, many if not most if not all of us regulars have read how the change in management in Microsoft is the equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. When it comes to Apple it will be rearranging icebergs for the Hapag Lloyd’s – Europa and though the MS Europa was awarded the title “best cruise ship in the world” for 12 consecutive years it will read like a disaster in the waiting.
The garbage people will complain that the landfill site for the soon to be defunct watch will be less than that of the Lisa and goodness knows that will get Greenpiece panties knotted.
In fact the market of the watch is so small only those criminals involved in torture and crimes against humanity will be interested in purchasing it because Apple’s encryption will be another backup to keep them safe from investigation. I might stay legal in the free and civilized world, you never know.
Remember folks this is all humor, so if you don’t find it funny that’s tough. The watch does not have a humor reader and you’ll probably have to ask Siri or Cortana to have the jokes explained.
Has any other watch failed? And if one did is it the end of time? I think these articles are crap, fud. Apple will sell all they make, because they will not make more than they can sell. These idiotic pundits forget that. Also part of the focus is on jewelry. Women I know, several dozen, average about 3 watches in their bracelet collections. Customizable armwear like this Apple Watch can replace a bunch of them, plus they are fun. The same was true of the iPhone with the cases, and now the Watch with the bands. Then come the killer apps. Or non-killer apps because you can be driving wearing one of these and conversing, and not die in a crash because you were texting? these are just a few of the attractive features of a well designed wrist accessory according to my social group but whatever. The technology writers just don’t seem to understand people.
Thanks for your post melanie, it put a smile back on my face as I’ve just found out that a lovely woman will no longer be posting here. I’m not sure of the reason but it has made me a little sad.
Anyway, believe it or not I actually found out a list of defunct watch makers, go figure.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Defunct_watchmaking_companies
I doubt this will be the case with Apple, as I consider this to be more a wearable computer than a watch. Your point is amazingly more on the ball than a lot of the pundits. Apple is making a foray into the fashion world and yes it’s a bit of a different market and yet women will be interested and will certainly be a powerful demographic interested in the watch.
This doom and gloom has become a mantra for many tech writers, possibly because it gives them hits or they are paid to write this anti Apple drivel. Nothing to worry about it goes with the territory.
Thanks for your post, it’s good to see women posting here and today particularly it has helps soothe my heart.
Enjoy.
What should happen:
A Brit and a Ball State Alumnus should be thrown out on their ear.
The Watch will be much like the original iPod. You’ll have to *use* it to *get* it.
New Mobile Computing Paradigm
Apple is not reinventing the watch, Apple is reinventing computing. Apple is selling a wrist computer that takes the space formerly reserved for use on a person’s wrist for a watch. It’s home screen is a watch face. Calling it a watch gives a person a frame of reference and feeling of familiarity.
Tethering the iPhone and Apple watch synergistically makes each function better where the sum of the two together is greater than either individually, i.e., 1+1>2.
Apple is selling to it’s own customers that already love and enjoy Apple products. Established customers will spread the word about the experience provided by the Apple watch + iPhone combination.
The word-of-mouth about the AW + iPhone experience will be reason enough to cause some people to switch to iPhone, with the intent to later purchase an Apple Watch
Pundits and analysts are attempting to compare a watch, to a wrist worn computer, i.e., Apples to Rolexes. The AWE 18 carat gold watch is in a class by itself, as a wrist worn computer, with a time related functions and applications.
How many watches does Apple been to sell to be deemed successful? Apple recently sold its 700,000,000th iPhone! If only 200,000,000 have an iPhone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, or 6+, that’s a large potential customer base. If 10% of 200,000,000 buy an Apple watch, that’s 20,000,000. And that’s only the present customer base and doesn’t include new Apple iPhone customers.
😀
It can’t fail.
Within 3 years everything Apple makes will be made better by the watch communicating the authentic identity of the wearer. The watch is the beginning of the era of person-aware computing.
Think of everything that can be improved if all of the computers around you (hundreds? thousands?) can know you. You get to decide who sees you, but let yourself be known to the supermarket, airport, car, house, phone, computer, alarm, traffic lights, vending machine, waitress, gas station, ticketing police officer, bar carding you, etc., and watch your life transform. Literally every computing device in existence will have the opportunity to change its behavior to make your life easier, more personal, and more rich.
Short of the onslaught of a nuclear winter it cannot fail. Because this is where the puck is headed. And Apple is at the head of the race, both with the watch itself, and with all the technologies necessary to leverage it.
Hold on to your butts.
Wow, you are completely clueless. “Short of the onslaught of a nuclear winter, it cannot fail.” Didn’t you get the memo? It isn’t nuclear winter anymore, it is global warming. God, I hate climate change deniers.
I don’t think it will fail, I just don’t think it will grow as quickly as iPhone and iPad did at first. I think it will sky rocket with subsequent generations.
I’m not constantly checking my phone for notifications as it is, so being able to see them quicker on my wrist is of no advantage to me. I can see lots of uses, but not enough yet to be blown away and buy one straight away. Once the product and apps for it mature and the sensors and battery life improve I’ll no doubt get one, I’m just really in no hurry.
A better question to ask is, what happens if it doesn’t fail? These analysts will be so pissed off that they don’t have an Apple failure to harp about for weeks and months. A lot of them got burned by their predictions about the iPhone failing, burned again by their iPad doom and gloom predictions, and then there were the predictions about the Apple stores failing too. They need a win.
Pundits Throughout The Ages:
“The hourglass will never replace the sundial.”
“The mechanical clock will never replace the hourglass.”
“Only a few people will ever buy/use a pocketwatch.”
“The wristwatch is unnecessary, we already have the pocketwatch.”
“The digitalwatch will never catch on.”
“The Apple watch will fail.”
😀
…there will be some very eccentric rich people that will run out and buy the latest Patek Philippe and not give it a second thought. Everybody else will be like me and my Newton Message Pad.
I read a Feb. 2015 article saying Apple confident on success of Apple Watch and ordered 5 to 6 million watches. However, the question raised was “What happens if Apple Watch “fails”?” Only one answer to that…
It’s battery life will have to improve, and if it was only a watch and an autonomous phone and cost $200 it would stand a better chance. I can’t see people liking that tiny little screen, unless the only thing it shows is video of the person you are talking to, like in “Dick Tracy”. The whole health aspect seems a bit too close to snake oil salesmanship, symptoms attributable to certain named conditions can also be symptoms of other conditions. Your tripsy gait and croupy voice does not automatically usher you into the Parkinson’s ward. It seemed an odd omission to not stipulate something along these lines during the keynote.
And I would also add, if you look at the commercials lately, it sure looks girly.
Yeah, it sucks to have a mere half of the population dictate your consumer choices.
If Apple Watch fails, Apple’s stock will explode higher because many fools would believe TC will be out the door. MSFT ships failed products year after year and a few months back hit new highs. AMZN ships failed phones and tablets and hits new highs. So why should it be different for Apple.
Steve said the PC is a truck and the tablet a car, then the Apple Watch is a sleek Italian sports car.
motor-scooter !-)
when you only need a quart of milk……
would you date a girl with apple watch?
If Apple watch fails, Cook will have no choice but to fix the email IMAP fail. Broken for two OS releases, hosing sys admins and enterprise customers, despite public promises of a fix.