“According to the latest research from our WDE (Wearables) research service, the Apple Watch smartwatch will ship 15 million units worldwide in 2015,” Neil Mawston writes for Strategy Analytics. “Apple will quickly become the world’s number one smartwatch vendor with 55% global marketshare this year.”
“We forecast total global smartwatch shipments to grow 511 percent from 4.6 million units in 2014 to 28.1 million units in 2015,” Mawston writes. “Most of the smartwatch growth will come from the new Apple Watch, which we forecast to ship 15.4 million units worldwide in 2015. Apple will quickly become the world’s number one smartwatch vendor and capture 55% global marketshare this year.”
“The Apple Watch is the catalyst to ignite the global smartwatch market. Apple’s famous brand, loyal fan base, deep retail presence and extensive apps ecosystem will ensure healthy uptake for its Watch. However, Apple’s first-generation Watch is not yet perfect,” Mawston writes. “For example, Apple’s Watch hardware design is arguably less attractive than some rival models such as the Huawei Watch…”
MacDailyNews Take: Arguable by sightless Fragtard dog dish lovers paid off by Huawei, perhaps.
Mawston continues, “…battery life may not be as long as many traditional wristwatch owners are used to, and Apple’s premium pricing may be challenging for mass-market consumers. Apple will need to upgrade tangibly its second-generation Watch to stay ahead of competitors later this year.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Pfft. Battery life is what it is (sorry, Apple can’t change the laws of chemistry and physics) and it’ll be just fine for Apple Watch. As for “premium pricing,” Apple Watch Sport starts at $349. Any lower and you get into the type of low-value customers that Apple would rather leave to others. Apple makes aspirational products.
In short, this “research” from Strategy Analytics reeks of a setup.
See: Smashing Apple: Is Strategy Analytics in Samsung’s pocket? – August 3, 2013
Related articles:
Apple Watch wins gold in 2015 iF Design Awards: ‘An altogether extraordinary piece of design’ – March 5, 2015
Don’t stress about Apple Watch’s battery life – it’s a 500 year old issue – January 29, 2015
Apple Watch is already #1 in MINDSHARE.
Why? 100s of million of people who have fumbled and dropped their iPhones attempting to reach a call.
“Researcher: Apple to quickly become the world’s No. 1 smartwatch vendor”
I am not a “researcher”, I can give more correct prognosis right away: Apple to IMMEDIATELY become the world’s No. 1 smartwatch vendor”.
Apple prepares more than five millions units to start sales — which is already two and half times more than all of Android Wear watches and all of Pebbles sold from very beginning, combined.
Seriously, dissing the Watch’s design is just, well, idiotic, if not total proof of payola.
15.4 million… Where do they come up with these numbers? How about another decimal point in accuracy, just for kicks… 🙂 These “experts” don’t get it. Apple Watch isn’t selling to the general public (like the Huawei Watch), as a stand-alone product with no previous customer relations.
Apple Watch customers are ALREADY Apple customers, with very high satisfaction. They already own at least one recent iPhone (5 or later). They already have an Apple ID, with a linked credit card. Even the ones who don’t follow Apple news religiously will know all about Apple Watch, because Apple can directly contact them. These potential customers are generally “savvy” users of mobile tech (not afraid to try new things), and they are characterized as being above average in personal wealth.
If Apple ONLY sells 15 million Apple Watches by the end of 2015, that’s a “good” result. But it also means that ONLY about 1-in-30 of those enthusiastic potential Apple Watch customers decided to buy one. There is NO WAY the adoption rate will be so low.
Counting sales and waiting list, Apple will have more than 15 million orders by the end of the quarter ending June (assuming sales begin by the end of April).
Adoption rate may be lower than you think if there are still users that purchase devices 1-2 models behind since it is more affordable. The Apple watch will not have the same discounting when it is released.
I did not say the adoption rate would be any specific number. I said 1-in-30 is too low, based on the past collective behavior of Apple’s loyal customers.
Also, the majority of iPhone sales go to the latest available model. Those previous (now cheaper) iPhone models may as well not exist as choices. For Year Two, it’s possible that Apple will continue to sell last year’s Sport version of Apple Watch for $100 less, but probably NOT the higher end models. Or Apple may not use that practice at all for Apple Watch. We don’t know… Therefore, I don’t think “waiting until Apple Watch is more affordable” is a significant customer consideration for sales during the first year. Those iPhone (5 and later) customers will either want one or they won’t. Does anyone believe only 1 out of 30 will want one? Even 1 out of 10 seems too low.
I think you have to consider the possibility that iPhone6/6plus owners who already have ApplePay via their iPhone may have less interest in purchasing an Apple watch than someone owning a prior model that would require the Apple watch in order to use Apple Pay, a main selling point for the Apple watch over other smartwatches. There are going to be more smartwatches in the market in the next few months that will be compatible with both Android smartphones and iPhones which also may dilute sales due to the perceived ‘flexibility’ of the accessory device.
Apple Pay is just a secondary consideration, not a “main selling point.” I doubt most Apple Watch customers with a “big” iPhone will even think about Apple Pay, as they are making the decision to buy an Apple Watch. Even people with older iPhones will probably not think about Apple Pay as a primary reason, except for those who DO (which just adds another PRO to their list of reasons). Thanks for bring it up… 🙂
However, they will think about not having to pull out their iPhone from wherever it is being carried, every time they need to do some minor thing. And THAT will be a primary consideration. And THAT will affect owners of the new “big” iPhones more than previous iPhone owners.
No other “smart watch” will be able to interact with iPhone at the level of Apple Watch. It’s an extension of the iPhone user experience, not a separate product that sometimes interacts in limited ways. Apple will only allow Apple Watch to work at that fully integrated level with an iPhone.
Most iPhone customers will not be concerned with platform “flexibility” of Apple Watch. They’re not planning to switch to Android any time soon. Apple Watch is not an “accessory.” It will become a fully integrated part of the iPhone user experience, as app developers deploy its capabilities into their new AND EXISTING apps. And no other watch product will come close to Apple Watch in “flexibility” that actually matters… all the things it can do to with an iPhone.
Where do they come up with 15.4M Apple Watches sold? 95% of all statistics are made-up, this is one of them. 😀
I think the idea is that Apple products sell out their first ‘batch’ so it is reasonable that the first run of 15.4M will sell out. On the other hand this is the first time Apple is releasing a product that is handicapped by being depending on the purchase of another Apple product to make good use of it.
“According to the latest research from our WDE (Wearables) research service,”…..really? “Wearable Research Service” = two 23 year olds who were told to go scan the web for everything written by any half-wit and then come up with “something”
Correction:
Apple to quickly become the world’s No. 1 watch vendor
Damn! This officially puts Watch predictions all over the map of success and failure! This is as manic as sales predictions ever get. IOW: Time for FUN! I watch with baited breath. 😉