“On October 15, 2013 Apple, Inc. (AAPL) sent out press invitations for an October 22 event to be held in San Francisco under the heading: ‘We still have a lot to cover,'” Bachar Samawi reports for Seeking Alpha. “For the event held on September 10, 2013 for the launch of the iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s and iOS7, Apple shares increased by 3.6% from one week prior to the sending of the invitations (whereby the invitations were sent out on September 3, 2013) to September 9, 2013, the day prior to the event. Yet, Apple shares reversed course and dropped by 11.1% in the week following the event, from $506.17 on September 9, 2013 to $450.12 on September 16, 2013. Will Apple shares reverse course again and drop following the October 22 event?”
“During the past 5 years there have been about 16 official Apple events, 6 of which included iPhone launches while 4 of which included iPad launches,” Samawi reports. “We examined Apple stock price movement surrounding the above events, from one week prior to the invitation date to one week following the actual event, as well as 90 days following the event.”
Samawi reports, “When we isolate iPhone events, Apple stock appreciated in 4 out 6 events in the week leading to the event (averaging -0.26% for all), 5 out of 6 occasions for the week following the event (averaging +0.6% for all), and 4 out of 5 occasions for the 90 days following the event (averaging +10.04%). When we isolate iPad event, Apple stock appreciated in 1 out 4 events in the week leading to the event (averaging -0.55% for all), 2 out of 4 occasions for the week following the event (averaging -2.24% for all), and 2 out of 4 occasions for the 90 days following the event (averaging +0.25%). Although past performance is no indication for future performance, it does seem that Apple stock performs well around iPhone events, with the exception of last year, while there is nothing conclusive for iPad events.”
Much more in the full article here.
I don’t care, I do about the product as a consumer.
This tail will never stop trying to wag the dog unless it’s ignored.
Who the fsck cares about the daily movement? Day traders.
Are you kidding? It seems to always drop after the event. The old saying – buy on the rumour, sell on the news.
However, Apple is stringing events now. The end of year follows soon after.
AAPL dropped after the iPhone5S announcement, BECAUSE OF S&P 500 REBALANCING. That the author fails to point this out identifies him as a totally clueless “will blog for food” writer.
Thanks
I think AAPL shares will drop after the event and will rise after the drop.
So when will the China Mobile deal be announced…?
If Apple does something good, it will be seen as not good enough; the price will drop.
If Apple does something seen as bad, the price will drop further.
If Apple does nothing, they will say that Apple is doomed and can’t innovate; the price will drop.
The take away from this, the price of AAPL will drop.
Apple is a stock like a swimmer in lead overshoes. Anything less that paddling at 120% will cause it to sink. Sad but true.
What’s ironic is that someone mentioned Netflix might end up cable boxes and the stock rose almost $25. I thought Apple was going to make some deals with the cable companies years ago and yet nothing has come of it so far. If Netflix can cut a deal and Apple can’t then there is something very, very wrong.
Netflix is a ponzi scheme. The keep spending more and more on content with marginal increase in subscribers. If can get the service on cable, then you might as well drop the stand alone subscription, thus no net gain for subscribers. I dropped my subs a long time ago. No decent first run movies. If it ix such a profitable model, why wouldn’t Apple just replicate it. At some point they might with the next gen Apple TV box.
… but it is hardly sufficient.
The stock does not rise or fall based on its perceived value. It is manipulated. The Big Boys sell lots of their shares the day before the announcement, causing the price to drop. Then they buy back a few days or a week later – at a much slower pace to help prevent the unprofitable (for them) rise in price.
Will the stock price rise or fall? My prediction: yes.
It’s going to drop, or course … One or two grown-up questions would be:
1) What will it be doing by Cmas time?
2) How far will it fall between January and the end of May 2014?
Fall.
By then people will be well aware that iOS 7 is a buggy piece of crap.
I am to the point of telling you to just F*CK OFF you stupid troll. Your worthless point has been made, repeatedly, on every damned thread you can lay your hands on.
STFU already. Vomiting over and over and over the same old crap is NOT opinion. It is BLUDGEONING. That makes you a plain old ordinary TROLL. Yes it does. So STFU already.
I hope I am annoying the hell out of you, just as you annoy all of us. Dickhead. 😛
Now back to my regularly scheduled Apple enjoyment. 😉
SHUT UP ‘Gary’!
Currie you dumb f*ck you shut up. You sound like you should be on medication. Gary is right, iOS 7 is a piece of shit. So shut up, f*ck off to a corner and go f*ck yourself you dumb palook.
i think it is not hard to deduce from the quality and content of this discourse that the pair (or three) of you are destined for jobs as doorstops, paperweights, or hat racks!
Currie works at the local Ronald McDonald’s flipping burgers. I saw him working there while ordering my Big Mac at my local drive-through. He’s a fat git.
Hi Gary. Oh I forgot. Today you named yourself ‘Overpriced Junk’.
Do please go F*CK yourself, anonymous coward hater. And do please get all annoyed when I harp on what an asshole you are. Get lost.
There will be a slight drop after the 22nd then a rise into and thru the earnings call. Beating consensus and strong iPad sales will push the stock into the $520s. The chicken bones have spoken.
I thought Apple was more focused on bringing excellent products to the marketplace than manipulating its stock prices.
Will AAPL blahblahblah?
I don’t care. What I care about is Apple doing great work and providing excellent gear that we enjoy using. THAT is what makes Apple thrive.
Wringing our greedy little manipulative hands over how to screw AAPL day traders out of their hard earned money has NO appeal to me, ever. I look on those who DO plot and ploy about such things as parasites with no spiritual future. What a shame.
I hope all those day traders shorting Apple lose their shirt. I think Apple is going to blow away even the highest expectations and finally shut them all up. Really looking forward to see the new products coming out. I can really care less about Wall Street. They hate Apple and love Microsoft anyway. Speaking of Microsoft, compare those two charts over the past 10 years. Microsoft, flat as a pancake.
AAPL is very likely to drop as there is no justice for AAPL. We all see it , no justice !!
If history repeats itself:
The stock will drop after the announcement because some people are impossible to please.
And people will line up for iPads the day before they go on sale. The majority of those people will be pleased.
DOWN! Apple’s share price going down as usual. The tech industry’s hate for Apple is immense.
Apple hasn’t impressed anyone over the past couple years and most of the tech industry thinks Apple is behind the times. They keep expecting Apple to come out with some atomic-powered computers or having a Minority Report interface. I swear there is just no pleasing tech-heads anymore. Just mention the words Apple Special Events and you’ll hear a loud collective yawn. Every product Apple puts out is seen as merely a minor upgrade over the previous model. Most companies have been doing this for years but for some reason Apple isn’t allowed to do it this way.
Apple’s share price absolutely has to go down because the majority of Wall Street sees Apple as already being overpriced. Apple will never get the props of Google or Amazon or even Netflix. If Tim Cook says even one word at the special event, the share price will plummet. Wall Street hates to hear that man talk. I’ve already prepared myself for the inevitable. I just hope the share price doesn’t drop all the way down to $450 again. Profitable tech stocks don’t come any weaker than Apple.
You are starting to sound like a broken record. Who cares about perception when you’re well positioned.
Everything that Apple is doing is simply making their existing products better with the fanfare roll out of the newest version. It’s old, old news – doing what is expected, not exceeding expectations – more pixels, faster processors, sharper lenses, fingerprint log on, etc. – so what? The company, under Tim Cook, is stuck in neutral. So, AAPL languishes. It probably would be better if they quit making a big deal about incremental refreshes and updates to their products. Just do it, put it on the Apple.com home page and quit sending the team onto a stage in front of audiences that leave full of exuberance of nothing much to be exuberant about.
Regardless, I’m always excited to see what tweaks Apple has in store for its products. It’s fun. And if by chance, they announce something new, all the better. Look at Microsoft’s big announcement at their last event, a newly designed kickstand, weeeeee!
I wonder how many people are going to watch.
Catching Fire opens that day.
I buy Apple products as a matter of course. Wall Street can look after itself.
There is no justice on AAPL. Any bullshit that sounds logically correct can apply on Apple .
Headlines like this may make AAPL drop :
Check on Foxconn food supplier on orders cut implies Apple doesn’t need so many people to make iPhones so there is no need to order some much rice.
The analcysts are wrong as always. Their check from Jewsung won’t be seeing the light of day because Apple is BURNING them alive! Eat that, Sum Jung Eric Schmidt!
Will MDN come up with more silly news titles to post after October 22nd?
“Will the price rise or fall?”
What a stupid question.
The answer is ‘yes it will’!