“The Innovator’s Dilemma, a 1997 book by Harvard professor Clayton Christensen, made the point that successful companies can lose their way when they pay too much attention to legacy products and not enough attention to new stuff. They are making so much money they either don’t see a competitor rising up or are too complacent to feel threatened. In either case the incumbent generally loses and the upstart (usually one of many) generally wins,” Bob Cringely writes for I, Cringely. “The best way for successful companies to avoid this problem is by inventing the future before their competitors do.”
“We see this pattern over and over in high tech,” Cringely writes. “Remember Lotus? Remember Word Perfect? Remember Borland? And it’s not just in software. Remember IBM sticking too long with the 80286 processor? Remember the Osbourne Executive?”
Cringely writes, “Microsoft certainly faces this dilemma today, having nothing with which to replace Windows and Office. Some say Apple, too, is living now on the wrong side of the innovation curve, but I don’t think so. I think Cupertino has a plan… Apple in a sense is about to make the Macintosh deliberately obsolete. This doesn’t mean Apple is going out of the Mac business. Why would they drop a hardware platform that still delivers industry-leading profit margins? But a growing emphasis from here on out will be the role of iOS on the desktop.”
Much more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Mtnmnn” for the heads up.]
No, it won’t be iOS on the desktop. It will be mobile, mobile, mobile: Even Macs are mostly mobile devices — besides the laptops, AppleTVs and Mac Minis are very small and easily moved, iMacs being all in one and razor thin can be moved as well, and the new Mac Pros are very small and easily moved.
Apple’s future is definitely iOS-centric, but Mac OS X will remain separate but smoothly integrated. Why? Because there are just some things that are better and easier to do on a Mac than on an iOS device.
You state that Mac Minis, iMacs, AppleTVs, and Mac Pros are small, and therefore mobile. Are you kidding me. Unless you have a heck of a long extension cord there are most certainly not mobile devices.
Its Friday afternoon, you probably had a liquid lunch at the pub.
They’re not mobile, but they are relatively portable. Cords are irrelevant- they can be unplugged and brought along. The new Mac Pro can be removed and carried away far more easily than any legacy Mac. That is perhaps all Bizlaw was talking about. No one’s confusing a Mac tower with an iPhone in terms of the definition of mobile.
Of course when you look around at people who use laptop computers, they invariably are plugged in to the 120VAC wall outlet because they don’t trust their batteries or something. (I never did get that.) So, the long and the short of it, everyone thinks they need to plug in somewhere.
Not mobile, barely portable, the right term is: “Luggable”
Mobile, yes. A lot of iMacs are used by bands and some of the people I knew used them very often. I, myself, and friends have pluged a few 27 iMac’s in Starbucks as a central meeting point. One arm grab on the iMac and place down on a table, plug in, Bluetooth connect the rest- setup in less than five minutes. They are not notebook computers, they are all-in-ones, and watch the look on peoples faces- priceless. Yes, mobile- no for lapping them.
I had an internship once at a company where everyone used Windows desktops. The computer they had for me was particularly slow Dell. After a couple weeks, I decided enough was enough, and started bringing my 17″ iMac there and back each day. It all fit one portfolio style bag, was very easy to carry, and it took less than a minute to plug in the keyboard and power cable. It was portable enough – needing to plug in to an outlet isn’t much of problem most indoor places.
Hey, I’m not always so mobile myself! I have an iPhone, iPad, and an iMac, and the one that is most indispensable is the iMac. If it died, I’d get another, not a Mini or Macbook (unless they were additions). There are things only my 27-inch truck can do for me.
Didn’t the very first Macintosh have a handle of sorts?
If I look around my garage I can probably find the backpack that I carried my 128K around in.
These are my thoughts:
A7 is put into every Mac – it’s a “desktop class” 64 bit ARM chip that Apple has full control over.
OS X matures (Mavericks is already running on A7)
iOS & OS X live side by side – think Dashboard for iOS Apps, running inside OS X, but with full drag/drop support etc.
OS X & iOS merge to become a fully unified OS.
The iPhone/iPad or whatever Apple is producing in 10 years (let’s call it an iDevice) becomes a full desktop PC in your pocket. All you have on your desk is a monitor and input device. Your iDevice connects whilst still in your pocket and you do your “heavy lifting” work on the monitor/input device then walk away from the desk. Your iDevice then syncs everything to iCloud and you receive a phone call, answering it with the other iDevice around your wrist.
It’s possible, and Apple will make it happen.
oh fine, give the sweaty monkey an idea right before he does the walk of shame out the door….
didn’t you get the memo? I’ll make sure you get a copy of the memo.
M$ and that sweaty ape have already tried it with W8 and it failed massively.
Apple are doing it right – one step at a time.
The diff between MS & Apple is Apple has a 20 year plan and is executing the underlying basics one by one by one knowing the ultimate goals they are reaching for. I see MS as reactive, not proactive.
Apple targeted programming tools, & UNIX OS, then hardware then, their own CPU design & optimization (Apple learns from every users actions), iCloud/software delivery, specialized graphics, optics and sensor design & software.
There is already more CPU power in the iPhone than a desktop a dozen years ago. That gives everyone a clue as to where we are going.
I’m pretty sure that is similar to what the full article predicts.
Let’s replace the monitor and input device by a touch hologram and now we have truly mobile!
May be we need to add another 10 years to your timeline though… 🙂
To heck with that, just put on a hat/visor that reads brain waves and optics that follow eye movement with HUD. No need to type anything!
Fool!!!
The future lies in rolling iOS and OSx into a swiss roll product (for lack of a better analogy). Where the hybrid OS intelligently determines what the hardware is and then configures it to operate on its specific parameters. A sample of which we see today in how the A7 chip off loads graphics intensive work to the M7.
This will mean that for years to come, Apple inc hardware will still be relevant as it will be able to utilize the modern OS by only calling on the hardware specific part of the OS.
Sorry to spill the beans Apple inc.
You are the fool. The M7 is a motion co-processor. Graphic intensive loads are not offloaded to it. Hard to take you seriously when you don;t even understand the basics…
@applecrumble:- Rock The Casbah!!!
Try understanding the basics whilst in a queue of oneself in front of an adobe hut with an Apple logo that you have quickly drawn and stuck on the front door, then drawn another logo 3 hours under a hot sun later to try to fool a UPS plane to drop of a box full of the latest Apple inc. merchandise in a town named after TC called TIMbuctoo! ah! ah!!
Just try it and then make the snide retort you have just done!
What the hell are you on about?
He just admitted to himself he f*cked up with this comment. Trying to segway – as if it would change the fact that he sounded ignoramus.
Sounds like he just downed a bottle of 110% proof Rum while exploring the hash Factory in the roof space.
Well fluthered as like, but not without Joycean sense, for the witted
The hell?
Thanks icla! you are spot on!! I should have just come clean instead of trying to hide out in TIMbuctoo in the vain hope that Apple inc. will open a store there and stuff it full of goodies for the intrepid who are prepared to travel to the ends of the earth to get them!.
The original iPod lives in every iteration of the iPhone, A phone (separate software for making and receiving calls) exists in every iteration of the iPhone, Web enabled device (computer) exists in every iteration of the iPhone and now with the launch of free Pages, Numbers and desktop class software available for the latest iteration of the iPhone the convergence of the various operating systems can now be observed happening, yet the clever implementation that allows phone calls to override the current operation by placing it into a holding pattern to continue after the call is ended at the point the operation was interrupted is an indication of how Apple inc. have kept the various OS’s independent yet inter-operational.
Remember Steve Job’s introduction of the iPhone back in 2007. An iPod, A Phone and an internet enabled device!
Three in one, each one independent, but together, a greater sum than the three alone.
ah But when Steve introduced this amazing 3n1 device he failed to say it really was a 4n1 device.
– an internet browser
– a phone
– a music player
– camera
Apple merely created the standards which smartphones would all be compared to at a price point none have bettered. And Apple continues to march alone in making innovative advancements on its devices with 64 bit handheld system, better security and free iWorks.
Yeah, you got your first line right; the rest, well…
iOS is growing towards OSX. little by little, …functionality wise. So the iOS is yearning to grow UP.
From an API perspective OS X and iOS are growing towards each other as much as they grow in opposite directions. iOS got to “fix” some old-style APIs from NeXT and so Apple appears to be migrating OS X towards those, while iOS gets some of the OS X routines now that iDevice hardware is getting more powerful.
Oddly enough, Clay Christensen appears on BBC Newsnight (a UK current affairs program) tonight commenting that Blackberry was dead, Nokia was dead and that Apple was next because of their closed proprietary system. To him the future was so-called “open” systems like Android.
Just because you’re a Harvard professor doesn’t make you immune to rampant idiocy. Now remind me which college Monkey Boy graduated from…
=:~)
He’s been wrong before—spectacularly. Take a gander:
http://jeremy.linuxquestions.org/2007/06/28/clayton-christensens-innovators-dilemma-says-iphone-will-fail/
Said as he stood in line for his new iPhone? (For research, of course?)
I think those of us old enough lived through the 80s and 90s listening to l title else than that crap about MS had it so right and Apple was doomed. So the irony in this is doubled by the fact that MS and even Samsung are desperately urging to copy The Apple philosophy. So to say that Steve Balmer is brighter than this guy must be a new record. Sadly the BBC have become sadly the Taliban of anti Apple FUD over here led by the nose by BBC Tech and Rory Cellan Jones thief chief tech Corespondent. Just follow BBCtech or BBCClick on Twitter to get the real taste of their bias on the matter. The BBC Trust warned them some years ago to stop their Microsoft ass licking but little seems to have changed which is sad as back in the day they were Apple evangelists.
iOS 7 already unified the underpinnings of both operating systems via the 64-bit libraries. The codebase is “nearly identical”, according to Apple. Therefore, there’s no significant need to merge the two operating systems if developers can develop for both easily. Each has strengths not provided or needed by the other. I believe they will keep the two separate, but tightly aligned. Integration is the name of the game, after all, not a “do everything” clusterf*ck like MS tried to create.
I agree. IOS is great for a lot of things because it is simple. Apple have done away with obvious file structures, for instance, relying on search to find things. I have spent the morning working on accounts on my Mac, where the only way to find the documents or files I want is by navigating the file structure. Many thousands of documents with meaningless names derive their meaning from the structure itself: how can i tell whether scan0001374.jpg is the bank statement page I want, except by where it is in the structure?
Apple pursued a separate approach for mobile – Microsoft merged them. We all know how that worked out…
I think a brilliant move by Apple would be to put an A-class chip into Macs alongside the existing Intel processors. Talk about a killer machine! Killer performance!
I so do not want OSX and iOS to merge and become a unified OS. A little cross pollination is nice but I do not want to have my desktop OS as locked down as iOS is.
I agree but I so wish I could use some of my iOS apps on my Mac, widgets seem totally redundant now as no one seems to be committing to them any more so are clearly a dead end. Having to go through he browser all the time is a poor alternative.
My dream is a portable computer that you can drop kick without breaking.
Panasonic ToughBook. One amazing piece of hardware.
One can’t figure out why Apple doesn’t buy Panasonic and build Mac Toughbooks as well as acquire Panasonic’s formidable display technologies, but Timmy thinks he knows best. Apple continues to support the competition by buying its displays from LG and Samsung, both copycats who hurt Apple every chance they get.
Cringely’s take on the future of computing is no better than yours or mine.
Apple “gets” mobile in all its levels of ambiguity: They continue to refine a class-leading OS; are deeply involved in system architecture and design down to the chip level; and invest heavily in the future by building out their data centers.
My take is that Apple is uniquely positioned to continue to be the lead dog for some time to come. We’ll see.
Stupid question but considering how powerful the new A7 is how far off in the future is an iPad that could run OSX?
Its not a power issue: OS/X could run on a 3GS probably… But Apple would have to compile the OS to run on Arm’s chipset. From what I have read, the ARM instruction set is very similar to that of Intel, and it would not surprise me to learn that Apple has been testing OS/X on their A series processors for some time.
But the Mac does a different job. Rendering HD film clips imposes different loads on a system than watching a movie. The Intel processor in the newMac Pro will handle the film render better than the A7, probably…
and apparently a bunch of suckers sold their AAPL today.
BLN says I quit!
This is all well and good but the need for desktops in the graphics, audio, editing and visual effects trade won’t go away nor will it ever be done exclusively on mobile devices. But that need is a very small part of the market.
A very small part of the market????????
Yeah, the Mac is small,its only responsible for 99.9% of the content created for iOS.
Maybe you don’t understand it if you are not a content creator.
Think a little bit. They are different tools for different purposes and I defy you to tell me that you can use a screwdriver where you need a wrench……..not that people don’t try!
Of course a screwdriver can be used to scare the next door neighbor into loaning you his wrench.
If you have ever been chased by a screwdriver wielding neighbor, you’d understand these things.
For close device data transfer now, we are operating at RF frequencies right now. These happen to require highly sophisticated RF circuitry and a good amount of power.
My bet, which is admittedly a guess, is that between the Infrared and ultraviolet, we will get hardware that communicates via these higher frequencies for devices in close proximity to each other within a decade. Data transfer rates could be much higher as in optical fiber now.
Setting your iPhone near your laptop, desktop or router could allow fiber optic speeds.
The question will likely become, do you need a laptop/desktop or just a large screen & keyboard which connects to your iPhone?
I’d still like to see an iWatch. Apple will do a watch right. Not like that cluster-f@$k Google put out. I thing some sort of Apple TV is in the pipeline as well that will seamlessly and elegantly integrate with all Apple devices. We’re already seeing this with the Apple TV hookup device. It will go from a hobby to an industry kick-ass device. A pair of Apple made Bluetooth stereo headphones would be nice. Time Cook says Apple has all sorts of cool new products in development. I believe him and can’t wait to see what they’ve been secretly working on for the past five years.
Tonight, on BBC News in England, Christesen said Apple will soon go the way of Palm, RIMM and Nokia because they are too complacent with their phone model strategy.
Unbelievable BS from a Harvard pro
It’s not the secret of iOS7 but the secret of communications. Communications between devices, content providers and between people.
The best computer is the one you do not see. The most useful purpose of computers is to communicate.
The secret side effect of using iOS 7 is that all guys will start using pink panties and bras and grow boobs after 3 months of usage, like Jonny already does.
And that’s just the start…
You might be onto something. Jony I’ve is gay in real life. If you don’t like it, than you can replace your iPhone with an Apple Newton, and get an old pizza box Performa, with Netscape, and dial-up, for that extra “retro” feel. You guys are more pathetic than the ones who moan about music being junk ever since Britney Spears made love to Madonna.
Jony Ive has a wife and two kids….just saying…
Oh, sorry, I actually meant Tim Cook. My point still stands though…
The secret to iOS is that it makes these fools spout out anti-Apple FUD. They sound like those classic rock fans who thinks music started to suck after 1999, but in this case, it is “classic iOS” fans who thinks that iOS started to suck as soon as iOS 7 was released. Unreal. I don’t remember this much complaining once Mac OS 9 changed over to Mac OS X.
That’s because from s usability perspective, OSX was an improvement over OS9. From an aesthetic point of view, it was better as well (it just looked better, more sophisticated, more advanced).
iOS7 is a step backward from iOS6 in all these ways. It has some better features and it’s different (the latter is all it takes for some people). Win8 got about the same level of ‘it’s great’ comments from fans of ‘new’ as iOS7 is getting now, but eventually the reality set in.
The reality of iOS7 is it’s a childish looking mess of an operating system. They could have put the same feature upgrades in iOS6, got rid of some of the skeumorphic stuff, and been hailed as heroes by everybody. Instead they panicked, copied all the worst aspects of Android (flat sticker looking icons), Win8 (font so thin as to be illegible), & added a dash of button removal & background/foregrounds blurring together.
If Maps & skeumorphism got Forstall fired, Ive should at least be given a demerit in his ‘official record’.
Though I agree mostly, about the direction of iOS7. I miss the skeumorphism look. And disagree that Ives, thinks the transformation is a more consistent look. Just look at the number of remaining Apple Apps untouched still. Keynotes, find my phone… etc. most are still skeumorphism in appearance. And I dread the iOS7 look coming to OSX. Ugh.
Nevertheless, iOS7 it still is a great update… yet, beyond the cosmetics – under the hood its genius shines, being 32 and 64 bit, Multipath TCP, and advancing in security regarding finger print scanning. Other than that, Scott was let go for NOT signing Tims’ public apology on Maps.
Remember Lotus? Remember Word Perfect? Remember Borland?
Remember Cringley? No? I didn’t think so…
I still need to use WordPerfect for creative projects; it’s the only reason I have Parallels to run Windows on my Macs. It is far superior to Word and I hate to admit, Pages. And I’ve been a Beta tester (oops! there goes that confidentiality clause!) for their new idea to bring WordPerfect back to Macs and now even to iOS. Unfortunately they’re going the lazy route of a web-based virtualization on their servers (like the iWork in the cloud beta for Windows users) but with a monthly/yearly charge a lá Windows 365. But it lags and looks more than a decade dated. Unless they redesign from the ground up for OS X and iOS, they’re going to lose the legal market soon which is the only market keeping the product afloat. Fools.
Nisus Writer is fairly nice
I just realized that it is not about the chip at all. Apple knows this also. The chip is what makes Apple magic possible. SJ talked about that in 1983 speech. He explained almost exactly the APP store 30 years ago. History is always more clear in hindsight. SJ had incredible foresight. He could see how the currently impossible would be possible soon. He explained it out for all to hear almost 30 years ago and the crowd back then obviously felt his energy for something we all could only dream about. It was amazing just to transmit zeros and ones over a regular landline in 1983. But when he spoke about computers and music, he pondered on how many people walk into a music store and ask the clerk what music should I buy? (why listen to what a computer salesman says then?) Today I was brought to tears as I thought back across the years and wondered to myself how proud Steve would be of his child today. They did him proud. iTunes radio is un freaking believable. I know there are other choices. iTunes Radio makes choices disappear like Treo’s after the first iPhone. He used terms industrial design and shit design. He spoke of the liberal arts and fonts, hard work and fun. He told us that in a matter of a few years we would spend more time on computers than in our cars. Apple has not lost it’s way. Wing nuts with an ax to grind about everything are clueless about Apple when they claim Apple has lost it’s shine. These people at Apple will not stray anytime soon. I think they are keeping their powder dry and their cards close to the vest. The only thing I think that Tim Cook could do to raise the spirits of the faithful higher is to project a decade in advance of the things we might see that are not possible today. IE iAuto, iPaint that can be programmed to specific color for home or auto use?? Maybe a home energy solution to unhook from power grid? Home security, robotics….endless stuff. That is why people cheered on SJ. He could tell us what we would like in the future that we had no idea was possible. Now with iTunes radio I no longer have to think about the concept of my music. Their library of millions allows me to enjoy commercial free radio anywhere at anytime including on my iPhone for about 25$ a year. Dinner at Chili’s tonight was only $26 thanks to a coupon for free desert I found in Passbook!! Guy had never seen one, but they sure honored it as well as one my wife had for a free Appetizer. THANK YOU APPLE!!! YOU STILL ROCK!!
Nice!
Only reason for Tim Cook’s reluctance to spin Jobsian visions of future tech is that exactly such is being worked on in the labs now, and not a whisper of intent must reach the ears embedded in every wall.
This is a new era of IP theft, and Apple must protect its signal advantage as never before, even when that means failing to feed the faithful’s appetite for visions of sparkling wonder—until they’re ready to ship.
iOS on the desktop is the stupidest idea I have ever heard. Has this guy not witnessed the horrid Windows 8? Well, sorry, nothing Apple can do will ever change the fact that the precision GUI on a desktop is fundamentally different than a touchscreen GUI.
Moreover, iOS is so locked down and consumer-oriented. OS X is where creators live. Long may it be so.
You nailed it. I said something somewhat similar below.
The Innovator’s Dilemma, a 1997 book by Harvard professor Clayton Christensen
I haven’t read it, but considering the date of publication, I’m willing to bet he used Eastman Kodak as an example of how to do things WRONG. By 1997 it was blatantly clear that Kodak’s management, several teams worth over time, was clueless and self-destructive. Kodak had already dug its grave by 1997.
As for this all-too-typical Cringely remark:
But a growing emphasis from here on out will be the role of iOS on the desktop.
He got his terminology wrong AND/OR he’s off in the ozone if he thinks iOS will ever be a ‘desktop’ OS. It is specifically a TOUCH OS. Some of it can be ported to OS X. Some NEVER could be. I swear he operates on only half his brain lobes.
It will be software that is appropriate to the device you are using. Apple aren’t going to be getting out of the Mac business because at this moment in time they don’t have Xcode on iOS so developers couldn’t make apps if they went mobile only.
I fervently hope that mxnt41 an Derek Currie are right. Using iOS 7 is like staring directly into a floodlight. I’m terrified of the prospect of Apple might be blinded by it too, but in a different way.
I’m scared that they might put so much iOS into OS X that it becomes a Tonka Toy Mac, easy for first-timers but simplistic for second-timers. I’ve used it many more times than twice. For example, I cringe at the idea of dumbing OS X Pages down to match iOS Pages. That would be useless for everything I do. I’ve tried. I could switch to a grown-up word processor that is similar to today’s Pages, but converting all those Pages files would be agonizing.
I’m terrified that iOS will take over the world, that iWork will be dumbed down, that I’ll have a massive file conversion problem, and that my Mac will turn into a Tonka Toy.
Okay, they wanted to avoid skeuomorphism, good for them. But they went too far in the other direction and made spindly flat icons that are so abstract I can’t figure out what they stand for. If Apple goes too far in the opposite direction, what will happen to the next versions of OS X? What nasty surprises will we find in Mavericks and its successors, OS X Renegades, OS X Defectors, OS X Free Agents, OS X Vigilantes, OS X Loners, or whatever?
Please, Apple, let the Mac be a Mac.