“‘Everybody has got a smartphone,’ says UBS analyst John Hodulik, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal,” Horace Dediu reports for Asymco. “No they haven’t.”
“According to the latest comScore survey data, 98 million Americans above the age of 13 don’t use a smartphone as their primary phone. That’s 41% of US mobile phone users,” Dediu reports. “What’s more, 2.5 million more people first started using smartphones in the three month period ending May vs. the three month period ending in April.”
Dediu reports, “To summarize, with penetration now at about 60% in the US, the rate of adoption of smartphones is not slowing in any perceptible way. So not only is there no saturation, but there is no slowing of adoption of smartphones in the US, the most penetrated large market. Globally, the penetration of smartphones is less than half of that in the US. About 4 billion people are about to switch.”
More info, and the usual excellent chartsm in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]
Doomed!
We shall see.
It was impossible for Apple to maintain double and triple digit YOY growth but that is normal when new markets are created. As market segments mature the goal is sustainable growth. So far I haven’t seen any support showing Apple, as a company, can not sustain the business they have built and are continuing to build alternate profit centers.
But, but, but . . . Isn’t Apple doomed or something? No one is buying iPhone now, right?
Given the way Android users don’t use the ‘smart’ part of their phone nearly as much as iOS users, should they really be counted as smart phones?
Let Apple announce the 5S and we’ll see how much the market is saturated. I’ll get one now and three in February 2014. The 4S’s go to extended family who cannot afford new phones.
iPhone gets a good share of “new ” buyers.
iPhone has the highest repeat buyer numbers.
iPhone leads in grabbing “churn” from other platforms.
iPhone will do fine.
They may be using a none smart phone because they can not afford an iPhone.