Analyst: iPhone stuck with 4-inch screen until at least June 2014; Samsung S4 to take significant market share in high-end smartphone market

Jefferies Managing Director Peter Misek discusses his outlook for the next iPhone with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”

It typically takes 60-90 days of production before [an iPhone] is introduced to retail. And it hasn’t gone into production, yet, so if we assume production starts in June, that would mean the soonest you’d be able to get it would be late August/early September. But, we don’t think production is going to start until late June/early July and that’s based on 400+ suppliers that we track.

It appears that the lower cost iPhone will be a 4-inch screen Retina display, plastic case, Lightning connector, but some of the componentry seems to be a little lower-end, lower NAND content, or memory [storage], lower processor capability, lower modem, but we would expect the phone to be available for China Mobile, for that TD-SCDMA market. For the “5S,” we expect the casing to be broadly similar to the “5,” uh 4-in [screen] as well. We think there’s a chance it could still come in multiple colors, a good chance it gets a fingerprint sensor, and, importantly, we think it’s a virtual lock that you get a better processor and a 12 megapixel camera. We thinka lot of the bumps and changes will be underneath the hood, much like they were with the “4S.”

We don’t see the “5S’ competiting with the [Samsung Galaxy] S4, broadly speaking. The S4 is a 5-inch screen product, the iPhone 5S is a 4-inch screen product, as best we can tell, and we think, broadly speaking, consumers at least, uh, mainly, outside the U.S. prefer larger screens. So, we actually don’t see the two as all that competitive. We think Samsung will take significant market share at the high end of the smartphone market based on that larger screen size. Here is the U.S. we think that Apple will continue to garner what it’s done, which is great market share, ah, but we thinkt he pressure for a larger screen phone will continue to mount as the year progresses and we think on that front, again, Samsung is likely to steal share.

We don’t see a 5-inch or 4.8-inch iPhone until June 2014.


 
Direct link to video here.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed.

Related articles:
Sharp to ramp iPhone 5S Retina display production in June; Japan Display and LG Display already underway – May 7, 2013
Yankee Group: Apple continues to eat Samsung’s lunch; customer loyalty will drive iPhone ownership past Android’s peak – April 26, 2013
Report: iPhone-sized smartphones dominate in usage stats; phablets are a fad – April 1, 2013

47 Comments

  1. Ok, to produce such large phone(s) seems to indicate that Samsung management to trying really hard to make-up for some inadequacies

    Maybe the other 10 percent of the smartphone market has that tell-tale sign. 😜

  2. Utter tripe. Apple’s not “stuck” with iPhone’s current screen size, they chose it because they care about design and usability. An iPhone can be operated with one hand.

    -jcr

  3. Apple hit the sweet spot with a 4″ screen for the iPhone, it just works so well as a “phone” for most consumers. For those who want the larger configuration of phone you have the alternative options of Samsung et al. So be it!

  4. Here is the simple solution, make the iPad mini a phone and give me back my 4S sized phone. The 5 is too big. I definitely don’t want any of Samsung’s mini tablets.

  5. I don’t really get it. If the only reason a phone sell better is the screen size… Another thing to note is that Misek is one if the most negative on Apple ad takes every change he gets to criticise the company and telling them what they must do ad what they do wrong.

    Steve Jobs: It is not the consumers job to know what they want.

  6. I se allot of comments here from people saying they and their friends have a larger screen android phone and that Apple needs to do one at once. First I wonder why they are reading Mac Daily News in the first place. I know allot of people prefer a large screen phone but one reason I hear why people are buying other phones than Apple’s are that they are cheap. Simple as that. There is also a big marketing gimmick to the android phones which is comparable with that of flat screen TVs. A large screen is very bright and most android phones I see have a very colourful background as default so the screens probably appear to be much better than they are. A bright big colourful screen, what can be more beautiful? It is apeing to costumers but not nessecarly better. Allot of android phones also sport a huge analog clock right in the screen. Totally useless but a great marketing ploy I guess. Apple can just move to a larger screen without breaking all of it’s apps. I think the screen on the iPhone 5 is good for now. Hopefully Apple can figure out a way to convince people that a bigger screen does not equal better. It is just as the MHz reace and the MegaPixel race. It’s a way to differentiate from the iPhone.

    I also find it strange that we only hear argument from people saying they like a larger screen. Never any comments from none iPhone users saying they like the portability of a smaller screen or the one handed operation. When I see people using those large Goosung phones it looks like a beginner playing piano pointing at the screen. It’s a really stupid way of operating a hand held device. Also it would break all the 750000 Apps in the App Store and only a small numer of the has updated for the larger screen of the iPhone 5 yet so Apple not log ago has to put out a new rule requiring devs to be compatible with the iPhone 5. Introducing yet a larger screen would create even more problems.

    As a last point I will repeat myself again. It is strange how we constantly hear allot of arguments for larger screens and how good they are, simply because they are larger. But arguments why a smaller screen is better are not even taken seriously… Apple has never followed the market. Apple create markets. They will not make a larger screen iPhone just because some people want that. It has never been their style to bend to what people want and they will not change that now. It is not what have brought them success in the past. I do enjoy a phone which easily fits in a pocket. Some people don’t.

    1. @KarlV
      Why can’t Apple just follow the playbook from the iPod success. Offer options for many different use cases. How about this as a lineup:

      iPhone 6 – 4.5″ screen (in the same or similar sized form factor as the iPhone 5 taking away most of the bezel spacing), fastest processor, best cameras, fingerprint reader, premium price model in 32, 64, 128GB sizes $299, 399, 499 w/2yr respectively (I don’t do contracts but that’s another thread)

      iPhone 5s – 4″ screen, same fastest processor as iPhone 6, fingerprint reader, 16 & 32GB for $149, 249 w/2yr respectively

      iPhone 4s – 3.5″ screen, keeps the processor it was last had (A5?), 8GB for $49 w/2yr

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