Analyst: iPhone stuck with 4-inch screen until at least June 2014; Samsung S4 to take significant market share in high-end smartphone market

Jefferies Managing Director Peter Misek discusses his outlook for the next iPhone with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”

It typically takes 60-90 days of production before [an iPhone] is introduced to retail. And it hasn’t gone into production, yet, so if we assume production starts in June, that would mean the soonest you’d be able to get it would be late August/early September. But, we don’t think production is going to start until late June/early July and that’s based on 400+ suppliers that we track.

It appears that the lower cost iPhone will be a 4-inch screen Retina display, plastic case, Lightning connector, but some of the componentry seems to be a little lower-end, lower NAND content, or memory [storage], lower processor capability, lower modem, but we would expect the phone to be available for China Mobile, for that TD-SCDMA market. For the “5S,” we expect the casing to be broadly similar to the “5,” uh 4-in [screen] as well. We think there’s a chance it could still come in multiple colors, a good chance it gets a fingerprint sensor, and, importantly, we think it’s a virtual lock that you get a better processor and a 12 megapixel camera. We thinka lot of the bumps and changes will be underneath the hood, much like they were with the “4S.”

We don’t see the “5S’ competiting with the [Samsung Galaxy] S4, broadly speaking. The S4 is a 5-inch screen product, the iPhone 5S is a 4-inch screen product, as best we can tell, and we think, broadly speaking, consumers at least, uh, mainly, outside the U.S. prefer larger screens. So, we actually don’t see the two as all that competitive. We think Samsung will take significant market share at the high end of the smartphone market based on that larger screen size. Here is the U.S. we think that Apple will continue to garner what it’s done, which is great market share, ah, but we thinkt he pressure for a larger screen phone will continue to mount as the year progresses and we think on that front, again, Samsung is likely to steal share.

We don’t see a 5-inch or 4.8-inch iPhone until June 2014.


 
Direct link to video here.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed.

Related articles:
Sharp to ramp iPhone 5S Retina display production in June; Japan Display and LG Display already underway – May 7, 2013
Yankee Group: Apple continues to eat Samsung’s lunch; customer loyalty will drive iPhone ownership past Android’s peak – April 26, 2013
Report: iPhone-sized smartphones dominate in usage stats; phablets are a fad – April 1, 2013

47 Comments

  1. There are various studies that suggest the market for “phat” phones is not too big – its proponents are just more vocal.
    It seems that despite the availability of purses, a lot of women still prefer iPhone4S or iPhone5-sized phones.
    That doesn’t mean there isn’t a market for bigger phones – I’m just not convinced that it is so big that it is worth betting the farm on, like Samsung does.
    So, I think it’s quite clever that Apple doesn’t go “all in” with 4 and 5-inch phones at the moment. But then, I’m biased because I do like my 4S. Not sure if I would even like an iPhone 5.

  2. Is this another guy with ties to companies that work for a Samsung or Google? Be wary of “reports” like this. The Android cartel has mounted a massive disinformation campaign against Apple, and sometimes, the sources of stories can be traced directly back to Android “brand-management” firms.

  3. It seems that EVERYONE has ceded this phablet, big-ass brickphone segment of the market to Samsung; nobody else seems to be making any meaningful effort of engineering and selling a big screen phone. Samsung may as well be a monopolist in this particular market segment.

    However, it is correct (as rainer_d) points out, that the phablet market segment is fairly small; barely single-digit percentage point of the overall smartphone market. So, Samsung is quite free to reign undisputed in this little corner of the marketplace.

  4. You want a big phone? Turn your iPad mini with a Sim card into a big phone.

    That 7″ iPad with data access makes a great 7″ phone and it costs a hell of a lot less than a Samsung Galaxy S4 with a two year contract.

    1. That’s what I really want. I wish there was standard voice on the mini (not VoIP) and (free) dynamic activation so that I could swap between my iPad mini being my phone and my iPhone being my phone. Most of the time I would use the mini as I usually use the speaker phone or Bluetooth. The only time I want to use my iPhone is when I need to put it in my pocket. Otherwise, the iPad mini is where it’s at for me.

  5. “…we think, broadly speaking, consumers at least, uh, mainly, outside the U.S. prefer larger screens. So, we actually don’t see the two as all that competitive.”

    Because “broadly speaking” larger screens are preferred internationally the iPhone 5S is going “competitive”? So the screen size is the ONLY thing that matters? I’m sure Apple will lose some buyers that want a big screen. I’m sure they will be competitive because of the many other qualities of the phone that are better than the Android competitors.

  6. Apple certainly does NOT need to follow Samsung’s every move. The oversized phone is as stupid as the American jacked-up 4wd bloatmobiles that never venture off the asphalt, never carry cargo, nor tow anything.

    However, Cook does need to get off his derriere & diversify the single iPhone into a full family like Jobs did with the iPod. There are simply too many different styling preferences, world markets/price points, and ergonomic needs for one model to please everyone.

      1. True to a certain extent.

        But it is also true that Samsung throws everything against the wall and watches to see what sticks.

        Sammy did beat Apple to the phat phone niche, after all.

  7. See MDN’s link above to the report showing “Phablets” are a fad.

    I think that when it comes down to day-to-day use, people prefer a smaller phone size. Sure, it would be nice to occasionally have a larger screen, but for the most part smaller is better in a phone. The iPhone hits the sweet spot.

    Apple will change this eventually with flexible screens that you can pull out to enlarge as needed, and roll back up to have as a nice compact phone.

  8. Almost everyone I know who has gone over to Android from the iPhone has gotten either the S3 or will be getting the S4. The number one reason is size, for every single person I know.

    Ya, this is anecdotal, but it sure does seem like size matters a lot here and Apple would do well with adding a 5″ iPhone to the lineup.

    1. I whole heartily agree with you. The big screens of your high end android phones are simply gorgeous. I feel that the Galaxy Note is too big at 5.5 inches but the 4.7 inch is the sweet spot. I’m switching to the htc one which of course has a beautiful 4.7 inch screen that supports 1080p HD. Sadly the iPhone 5 which I currently own doesn’t event support 720p HD nor will the so called iPhone 5s with a tiny 4 inch screen.

  9. Why shouldn’t Apple go with a larger screen? Because a lot of you say no? I say they should and tap that market also, regardless of how large or small that market might be. And keep the 4″ size one as well. And let the market decide. And I think there is a market for 4.5″ – 4.75″ size. And those of you who feel it’s too big, don’t get it. As long as they have a 4″ and a larger size, they cover both. They don’t need a Note sized one. That is a fad and probably a small market product, but 4.5″ or so is a large market. No reason to be stubborn on it. For those people who want a larger screen, Apple should give them the option of having a larger screen on the best phone available. Not sure I understand some people’s intransigence on this. If Apple makes a larger phone and you don’t like it, don’t buy it. Pretty simple.

    1. Exactly. You have identified the secret to Samsung’s success, and have identified why Apple’s single current iPhone is not able to keep pace with the growth of the smartphone industry.

      But waiting for Cook to make a move is like waiting for a bot of water to boil when placed in the sun.

  10. I have the iPhone 5 and it’s a good phone but I really wish Apple had gone with a 4.7 inch display that supports 1080p. Also iOS has grown to feel old and stale, meanwhile Samsung and HTC have produced big beautiful screens that look much better when reading text, gaming and playing videos, not to mention that Android Jelly Bean has become a really good mobile OS with a lot more features than iOS 6. I really don’t expect much from iOS 7 other than a UI overhaul but the the 5s will still sport a 4 inch screen. That’s just a deal breaker for me. In less than a week I’m switching to the HTC One which is hands down the best smartphone on the market. It takes the unibody aluminum design to a whole new level. Trust me, as a former iPhone fanboy (like most of you here) I have done a lot of research and I
    know this is going to be a game changer experience for me, can’t wait!

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