Analyst: iPhone stuck with 4-inch screen until at least June 2014; Samsung S4 to take significant market share in high-end smartphone market

Jefferies Managing Director Peter Misek discusses his outlook for the next iPhone with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”

It typically takes 60-90 days of production before [an iPhone] is introduced to retail. And it hasn’t gone into production, yet, so if we assume production starts in June, that would mean the soonest you’d be able to get it would be late August/early September. But, we don’t think production is going to start until late June/early July and that’s based on 400+ suppliers that we track.

It appears that the lower cost iPhone will be a 4-inch screen Retina display, plastic case, Lightning connector, but some of the componentry seems to be a little lower-end, lower NAND content, or memory [storage], lower processor capability, lower modem, but we would expect the phone to be available for China Mobile, for that TD-SCDMA market. For the “5S,” we expect the casing to be broadly similar to the “5,” uh 4-in [screen] as well. We think there’s a chance it could still come in multiple colors, a good chance it gets a fingerprint sensor, and, importantly, we think it’s a virtual lock that you get a better processor and a 12 megapixel camera. We thinka lot of the bumps and changes will be underneath the hood, much like they were with the “4S.”

We don’t see the “5S’ competiting with the [Samsung Galaxy] S4, broadly speaking. The S4 is a 5-inch screen product, the iPhone 5S is a 4-inch screen product, as best we can tell, and we think, broadly speaking, consumers at least, uh, mainly, outside the U.S. prefer larger screens. So, we actually don’t see the two as all that competitive. We think Samsung will take significant market share at the high end of the smartphone market based on that larger screen size. Here is the U.S. we think that Apple will continue to garner what it’s done, which is great market share, ah, but we thinkt he pressure for a larger screen phone will continue to mount as the year progresses and we think on that front, again, Samsung is likely to steal share.

We don’t see a 5-inch or 4.8-inch iPhone until June 2014.


 
Direct link to video here.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed.

Related articles:
Sharp to ramp iPhone 5S Retina display production in June; Japan Display and LG Display already underway – May 7, 2013
Yankee Group: Apple continues to eat Samsung’s lunch; customer loyalty will drive iPhone ownership past Android’s peak – April 26, 2013
Report: iPhone-sized smartphones dominate in usage stats; phablets are a fad – April 1, 2013

47 Comments

    1. Honestly, I prefer the size of my 4S to my wife’s 5. I don’t have a purse. I have a back pocket. The 4S fits perfectly in my jeans, jacket, or sport coat. I’m not really thrilled about the increase in screen size just for the sake of needing to upgrade the phone features to refresh buying cycles.

    2. Yes of course because everyone really wants a giant, plastic POS as their cell phone…………NOT. But then again, I heard that carrying around a big ass boom box on your shoulder is also coming back in style.

      Hey, the 1980’s just called and they want their shit back. 😉

    3. “we assume, it appears, we think”–great article of pure speculation ! And since when was a 5 inch screen a high end product–they are still BOGO last I checked–

    1. Why exactly Apple should not have both? Keep in mind that only Apple invented this whole category of smartphones. Samsung should have zero.

  1. I hope we don’t see a 5″ iPhone anytime. Imagine holding a Samsung sized iPhone! [laughing]

    iPhone needs to be bigger as much as a Ferrari needs chrome mud flaps.

      1. Yes Pete. But they will lose millions of sales between now and the time they finally produced that larger iPhone. And it will carry high margins just like the 5 and the upcoming 5S will. Some people like an iPad mini. Some people like a full-size iPad. And it doesn’t have to be a 5 1/2 inch iPhone either. A 4.8″ or 5″ iPhone will be the sweet spot. For those with small hands the 5S will still be available for a while.

  2. I’m 60 and my iPhone 5 screen is plenty large enough for me to read clearly. I can slip the phone in my pocket and barely notice the weight. Who needs a cumbersome, mediocre, plastic Samsung POS? This author is a tool.

  3. I too love my iPhone but I really do want a bigger screen, about 4.5 inches or so if they can keep a similar form factor. I do want it to still fit in my jeans pocket.

    I’ve been a Mac user since 1986 and started with the first iPhone in 2007. So I’m no novice to the Apple world but trying to get opinions and show someone the website I just built on my iPhone screen was not as positive an experience when someone with a Samesung S3 pulled it up to show it for me on a screen everyone could see.

    1. All I can say is mobile optimization. All desktop websites look better on a larger screen. Convenience is a compromise if your clients (assuming your a web developer) don’t see the value in a mobile optimized web site show them what it looks like on an iPhone and ask them is is this how you want customer to view the company. If you want to show the desktop version use an iPad or iPad mini.

      1. @1Racer You are correct but that wasn’t the circumstance, it was not a planned showing, it was an impromptu chat about the site I’ve been working on.

        As far as optimizing for iPhone, I either don’t know enough or would need a way for a CMS to have alternate presentation layers recognizing the correct devices. Since the way I currently have the content on ScoreBargains.com are in an “accordion” manner to fit more content on the page without it being 10 minues to scroll to the bottom. I’m trying to think of other ways to handle it.

        I’m open to suggestions.

  4. large screen phones are not a status symbol.

    See the Moto RAZR and the StarTac – enormously successful cellphones because people didn’t want to carry around shoe-box sized handsets.

    Big screen cellphones are not fashionable because the innately look silly.

  5. STUCK? Stuck is an opinion word. I don’t want a big flat brick to carry around. I don’t consider myself stuck with anything.

    Bigger is not always better. Common knowledge among women anyway.

    1. Agreed about phones for the ladies. It’s mostly guys who are the geekiest of the geeky, who clamor for these bigger phones. My iPhone 5 is my only “computer”, and it’s plenty big.

      Picked up and played with an S4 today. Build quality is definitely an upgrade from the S3, but way too big and slippery for my hand. I’d be dropping it constantly.

      BTW, it was Jank City going from one system level screen to another.

  6. Personally I don’t want a 5″ iPhone. Might as well get a tablet. People running around with these 5″ phones look like retards. The iPhone 5 could be a little wider, the height it fine, but I don’t want anything at 5″ or over.

  7. if you have to have a 5″ phone use a tablet. Who is using these 5″ screens anyway ? I live in NYC and all you see are iphones , when you see the 5″ they are usually older

  8. Although I absolutely adore my iPhone 5… but I wouldn’t mind if Apple removed the chin (and forehead), widened the phone a bit and replaced the entire surface with nothing but a display.

    I believe the future of smart phones lies inbetween the 4″ and 5″ mark.

    Although I don’t think Apple will be moving towards a 5″ display this year… I think that they are at the very least contemplating it.

    I think the 5″ market will at least cut into the 4″ market and Apple would be smart to be there with an option when it does.

    1. Yes that would be the only acceptable way to make the iPhone bigger. Not physically larger, but screen wise. The 5 vs. the 4 is already a bit large for putting in some pockets so I hope Apple doesn’t bother. I don’t think it’s that much of a selling point to go physically larger. Make the complainers happy by putting phone capabilities in the Mini iPad and be done with it!

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