For patient bulls, mighty Apple’s day will come again

“That Apple, after a 41% drop from an all-time high of $705.07 on Sept. 21, gained no ground despite a doubling of its capital-return plan shows that it is still valued for growth, not for income potential,” Tiernan Ray writes for Barron’s.

“Tuesday’s earnings report, although better than expected, appeared to provide fodder for the bears. Apple reported a respectable 11% rise in revenue, but also its first year-over-year profit decline in a decade,” Ray writes. “CEO Tim Cook’s remarks about there being ‘exciting’ new product categories in the fall basically affirmed bulls’ worst fears: It will be a long, hot summer before a “catalyst” arrives. But the hand-wringing is overdone, and the company, and the stock, will recover in due course.”

Ray writes, “Anecdotally, critics assert that Apple’s lack of a large-screen iPhone means the company has nothing to sell. But Apple sold 19.5 million iPads in the first quarter, more than all the personal computers that HP, the top vendor, shipped worldwide. It also sold 37.4 million iPhones… The analysis of Apple’s finances lacks perspective and a familiarity with even recent Apple history.”

Read more in the full article here.


  1. Buried in the article: “Tech observer and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban last week told CNBC’s hosts to cut Apple some slack. ‘They’re an old company. It’s a 30-year-old company, they’re going to have their ups and downs,’ said Cuban. ‘It’s not going to come as quickly as traders want it to come.'”

  2. something like big display iphone or netbooks , if Apple thinks it cant make quality products , no matter how many people like and buy , Apple just doesnt make it . That is what makes Apple stand out from the crowded. (THINK DIFFERENT) If Apple followed tread and made a netbook, we wont see an ipad today. As an Apple shareholder, I may think why Apple didnt release a larger display iphone, that is so easy , to fill the gap . After thinking deeply, what Apple may lose today will have a even greater return in future. Example is netbook, Apple missed the chance to get the revenue of $xxxxxx from netbook, but Apple now gets back even more with ipads. So WHO KNOWS? Maybe sth more profitable and more innovative products are coming in fall and throughout 2014.

  3. Because the two most important things to Wall Street investors/hedge funds are major market share and rapid growth, how is Apple going to manage to get its share price back up again? Wouldn’t Apple have to come out with a whole new product with high margins that would be able to capture major market share? It doesn’t matter if Apple sells 60 million iPhones in a quarter because smartphones on the Android platform will be selling at a rate of over a 120 million per quarter. Mostly everyone believes that Apple won’t ever catch up to Android in global smartphone market share. I have no doubt that Apple can remain profitable but Wall Street doesn’t count profits as being worth anything for share price value. I’m sure that’s why Apple’s P/E ratio keep falling.

    Despite Amazon having such tiny profits, investors value Amazon so much that the company’s P/E is practically in the stratosphere. Amazon has almost no competitors at all and it’s unlikely it ever will because of the way Jeff Bezos runs that company. With Apple, I’m sure every product Apple introduces in the future that’s even mildly successful will be copied endlessly by rival companies. Google’s Android OS makes it so easy for rival companies to get into the copying game because all they have to do is produce the hardware.

    I don’t think it’s possible for Apple to come out with a product that legally can’t be copied, so Apple will always have to contend with copycats and Wall Street will automatically say that Apple’s products can be commoditized within months which gives Apple almost no advantage at all. Samsung will shamelessly copy anything Apple makes and sell it for less.

    So, what I’m getting at is how can Apple possibly come out with an exclusive device that will give the company enough value to raise the share price much higher with Samsung ready to copy any product Apple makes in the future? What’s worse is that Wall Street believes Apple absolutely can’t come up with such a world-changing product without Steve Jobs.

    1. I keep reading that “amazon has no competitors”

      amazon competitors:
      Walmart etc has online division so does every other major retailer like Staples, Home Depot, Microsoft..
      there are also booksellers like Barnes and Nobles, Chapters etc.
      in digital arena it’s got competitors like apple (iTunes, app store, iBooks etc)

      amazon ‘outfights’ them by basically making no profits but long term? Analysts think that a ‘no profit’ company like amazon is the new ‘tech giant’ can ‘out tech’ apple with Kindles etc are crazy. (amzn last quarter profit $180 m, apple 9500 million ) where’s the money to do R&D? Amazon is already giving profit warnings for the following quarters.

      Amazon stock is more like a ponzi scheme…

      The advantage of amazon is Jeff Bezos who is a genius salesman and hukster/hustler like P.T Barnum while Cook has near zero personal sales ability (no ability to convince investors). Out of 7 times cook spoke the stock fell.

        1. nope haven’t forgotten it was under tim aapl was all time high but nevertheless its true that the last 7 times he spoke the stock fell (and investors have lost 250 billion under his watch)

          weird that people voted down what I said when basically I stated the truth (no one posted stuff arguing what I said was wrong — and please read CAREFULLY what I said ) and I was way more negative about Amazon than Apple. (“amazon is a ponzi scheme”)

          I guess ANY kind of criticism of Cook is a no no.
          actually my ONLY criticism of him in my post was that he’s got no PERSONAL sales ability especially compared to a dude like Bezos.

          Example: in the Early Days when Amazon was young (still packing books on the floor with slabs of wood for tables) Bezos would park his truck in front of Barnes and Noble stores with the sign saying something like “Can’t Find it Here, try” –see he’s a born hustler — and recently he bought into the blog site Business Insider run by ‘apple hater’ Henry Blodget (of famous article “the IPhone is Dead in the water” ) — any body doubt Bezos is not trying to control the press on Amazons digital initiatives like the Kindle? Bezos is a killer sales and P.R guy.

          Meanwhile Cook has no background in personal sales (Steve Jobs had it, like Bezos Jobs hustled sales personally for years when he was young and Jobs was a master of image and P.R) , Cook doesn’t defend when attacked by Forbes, NYT etc (with false articles), he barely advertisers (none against dud Win 8, none against Samsung etc) and of course the final proof is the stock price: he’s personally not being able to convince the big funds about the viability of aapl. (small investors make very little difference to aapl price. Big funds take up 70% fo the stock. ) Bezos talks to funds and venture capitalists. He attends functions and does the handshaking P.R. Analysts routinely call him a nice guy and ‘wonderful’ (I’ve heard the CNBC panel say what a great time they had with Bezos the night before) , Netflix CEO ( a rival) calls him ” a delightful human being’. See P.R.

          (do people realize that when I call Bezos a P.T Barnum I’m not exactly complimentary ? He’s like a used car salesman – albeit one with great ability). Cook is an operations guy, h’se simply not like that..

          The proof is in stock’s P.E. Apple’s stock P.E is so low , lower than half the S&P average: that’s shows perception problem (i.e big funds are not convinced of it), Amazons 2000 plus is due to Bezos able to “spin” amazons future success prospects in-spite of the reality of dismal profits.

          note also I didn’t criticize Apple’s long term prospects instead praised it. I said Apple makes a lot more money which allows it do R&D.

          Amazon stock price based on P.R and Hot Air will see reality and apple’s silly low stock will get back up there to a more reasonable P.E hopefully. Apple’s profits and product pipeline is still strong.

      1. you don’t remember the time Apple was run by a soda salesman or Steve Jobs stating that a tech company cannot be run by salesmen – ie. microsoft – case closed –

        1. Steve Jobs WAS a MASTER SALESMAN.

          get a clue.

          (he was selling a all the time. Woz still complains that Jobs spent too much time selling — Woz wanted to GIVE the stuff away . Go read the bio, in just a few pages you can see jobs running from one sales pitch to a sales conference to a press P.R conference to talking to Venture Capitalists etc. If jobs wasn’t interested in SALES and IMAGE which is part of sales why the fuk did he spend so much effort on the retail stores — and the product launches when everything had to be PERFECT?. In the early days he even personally tested the sushi served to press folks to make sure they were up to standard – to get the best P.R for sales — . he spent endless hours working with ad agencies like Chiat Day trying to put out the best ads — like Super Bowl ads, think Different , Mac PC Guy– WHAT ARE ADS FOR IF NOT SALES?

          are you seriously telling me ads are not for sales?
          also branding, image , packaging are all SALES tools.

          If you think jobs you think jobs wasn’t interested in sales you are freaking clueless. Jobs was a BORN sales guy since he was a teenager. He’s known as one of the greatests MARKETEERS (salesman) of his generation.

          what he meant about salesmen was that companies which produces products shouldn’t be run by people who are ONLY salesman (with no product ability)

          cook has the administration and operations chops but seriously is he a SALES GUY on par with Jobs?

          (I was ad, Pr and sales pro for years. )

    2. With such a pessimistic, negative viewpoint, you must certainly no longer own any Apple shares (if you ever did), so my question is this- what possible motivation could you have to even bother wasting your time posting on this site?
      Oh- wait….

  4. Stocks run on any short term due to herd mentality.

    Herd mentality is worse when large institutional traders are a big part of the players and are forced by their “rules” to rebalance portfolios once a stock like Apple rises in value.

    Many of the institutional traders all run out the same filing deadline door at once.

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