“The new dividend and share re-purchase plans Apple (AAPL) announced Tuesday may make the stock more attractive to investors,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
“But the analysts who follow the company couldn’t ignore its lower margin and revenue guidance,” P.E.D. reports. “Their recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) didn’t change, but more than half the analysts we polled lowered their 12-month price targets.”
Amid the changes, the high target for Apple remains at $888 (Topeka’s Brian White, unchanged) as well as the low target $360 (Berenberg’s Adnaan Ahmad, unchanged).
See the full chart here.
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Analysts cut Apple targets, estimates – April 24, 2013
Debt-free Apple plans to borrow to finance massive capital-return program – April 23, 2013
Apple beats Street on EPS and revenue; ups quarterly dividend by 15%; ups buybacks to $60 billion – April 23, 2013
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So how much did Apple really pay in taxes? – November 1, 2012
Apple’s showdown with the U.S. government over taxes on offshore cash – July 13, 2012
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Apple’s dividend move puts spotlight on foreign cash holdings, repatriation tax reform – March 20, 2012
Apple: Good start; and what about the overseas cash? – March 19, 2012
Apple’s foreign cash hoard piles up: $54 billion and rapidly growing – January 11, 2012
Senator John McCain eyes Apple’s $54 billion overseas cash pile – November 3, 2011
Google joins Apple in push for U.S. repatriation tax holiday – October 3, 2011
Apple lobbies Obama for tax holiday, wants to bring overseas bounty home – August 24, 2011
U.S Senate Democrat Schumer allies with Apple, other multinationals on repatriation tax talks – June 21, 2011
U.S. companies push for tax break on foreign cash – June 20, 2011
Apple, Oracle, Duke Energy, others organize lobbying blitz for tax holiday – February 17, 2011
3Q is a dead quarter for Apple historically. Anyone who has any knowledge of the company’s release cycle knows this. WWDC isn’t until 3 weeks before the close of the quarter and announcement about 10.9/iOS 7 aren’t going to fluff any analyst naughty bits anyway. You’re going to get radio silence on hardware until the fall.
But wait for 4Q. Brace for impact.
It is time for these analysts to put their money where theit mouth is. Apple has increased profits in a time when the entire world’s economy is in the crapper. Please analysts which microelectronics firm is outperforming Apple? Who should Apple try to be more like?
That is the true true.
Sadly analyst does it care if you make 100 billion a week. If the rate of increase is slowing, it’s bad. And as Apple gets bigger it can not grow at that high percentage number it has done in the past. It is logical. Apple can sell more phones, take market share, be more profitable but still grow slower than before and that what they are focused on only. Kinda sad yea indeed…
The fact that there is such a difference in all the estimates shows that they really have no clue what they’re talking about and/or are lying for their own gain. The only way to be worth listening to is to be consistently right. And none of them are.
You are absolutely correct, mxnt41. The vast majority of analysts chase the market and their primary job is to create trading churn (profits for their employers). They are classic contrarian investment indicators, in my opinion, and their recent actions scream “buy AAPL.”
Even If you believe that this analyst speculation has any value, the outlook is quite good. Per the article, the average 12-month price target for AAPL is $586 (recently reduced from $600) and the median estimate is $543 (recently reduced from $550). Even the lower median estimate of $543 is still nearly 33% above the current price of AAPL. It sounds to me like a pessimistic (and recently reduced outlook) for AAPL is pretty awesome. I wonder how many other large companies have +33% 12-month price targets??
All these financial inducements are for short term gain only. Once the adrenaline rush through taking on board $100 billion debt is gone, Apple will still be left with $100 billion debt to service.
What if long term interest rates rose to 20% within a year? The only reason why interest rates are so low at the moment is because Bernanke feels that the only way forward is print money through quantitative easing (QE) at the behest of the cretin in the WH who thinks that debt and more debt is the way out of the economic mess he’s mired the country in.
Cook has just unravelled Steve Jobs’ conservative cash rich policy in one fell stroke. This is standard MBA practice. Cook is nothing more than an MBA manager. No original ideas, no orignal thought. Just a wooden CEO.
“What if long term interest rates rose to 20% within a year?”
Apple more than likely was able to lock in a preferred fixed low rate that will be serviced easily (as well as the dividend) by future quarterly profits at the current proven average, in fact even if they were to shrink…
It’s actually more like $55 billion in debt, Ballmy.
And I don’t know if the stick in your ass wedged sideways when you got out of bed this morning, but Cook is a little more than an “MBA manager”. You know better.
I can’t even imagine what it would take for interest rates to rise to 20% within a year. I’m sorry to say, but that was a pretty stupid statement to make and I usually like to read what BLN has to say.
LOL, how old are you? You’ve been taken in by the bond vigilantes. Didn’t they say the debt bomb would have exploded already?
You don’t even know how the debt will be structured. You assume the rate will be floating, when in all likelihood it will be fixed. As long as the economy drudges along at less than 3% growth and unemployment is above 6.5%, you can expect QE to continue.
The stupid taking-on-debt situation is NOT any reason to blanket insult Cook as a standard MBA dumbtard. But I must agree that taking on debt with a huge cash hoard is incredibly stupid, and is indeed an act worthy of a standard modern MBA graduate. I personally consider a contemporary MBA degree to be indicative of Motivated-To-FAIL. It’s never that simple, but MBA graduates these days tend to be flat out dangerous thanks to a plethora ridiculously terrible business schools.
Instead of considering MBA degrees, I’m only interested in an individual’s skills, experiences, personalities and points of view. When I find people who have transcended the self-destructive biznizz bozoid crap taught in today’s business ‘schools’, I am impressed.
Returning to the subject at hand: I can understand the incentive to distribute a safe part of the cash hoard to the stockholders. That the cheapest way to do this is to take on debt is a sick state of affairs. But it is not Apple’s fault that companies are tax-gouged by bringing profits cash into the USA. It is an unbalanced approach to taxation, to put it mildly. 😛
I can understand the analysts on this one, but what is a Berenberg? Never heard of it. Apple needs to release the iPhone 5S on June 21 to goose up 3Q.
EXCELLENT! An Analcyst List! This is going to be very useful. I’m going to be vigorously citing it as 2013 unfolds. I can hardly wait. BWAHAHAHA!
Here is the list in declining order of ‘Apple Bear’ severity:
1) Nomura
2) Citigroup
3) BMO Capital
4) Robert. W. Baird
5) Pacific Crest
6) CLSA
7) RBC Capital
8) Deutsche Bank
9) Oppenheimer
10 Atlantic Equities
11) Societe Generale
12) Goldman Sachs
13) Janney Capital
14) Wells Fargo
15) Credit Suisse
16) Morgan Stanley
17) J.P. Morgan Chase
18) Canaccord Genuity
19) FBN Securities
20) Stefel Nicholaus
21) Sanford Bernstein
As of today, all of them have price targets above the AAPL price of the moment. Let’s watch that change… 😀
Now to supplement this list with the already negative analcyst list… I.E. “low target $360 (Berenberg’s Adnaan Ahmad, unchanged).”
360 is support I think so that’s kind lame with a price target there. I think the stock goes higher from here. A slow grind higher and an acceleration after the summer. Investors, greedy as always but stupid don’t want to miss Apples new products later in the year. So why not own it now and just wait for the stock buy back, dividend, new products and the value in the company right now to do its job. I think things can only get better for Apple from here. People want to believe.