“First I want to dispel the myth that Apple’s stock is a reflection of a sinking company. It’s not, Apple is strong, one of the best, if not the best managed company on the planet,” Ernie Varitimos writes for AppleInvestor. “It’s just that the Apple faithful, the Loonians enraptured by the Steve Jobs philosophy ( I, among them), people permanently caught in his reality distortion field, think there’s some kind of big money conspiracy, a massive manipulation that controls price, that evil corporate mongers are intent on knocking down the best representative of what a corporate giant could be.”
“If I were to use Elliott Wave principles, then Apple stock price over the past seven years has been in a Super Cycle, where the the high price of 705, set in September of last year (2012), was the completion of Wave One, and the current downturn is Wave Two,” Varitimos writes. “According to Elliott Wave Principles, the Wave Two will be made up of three waves down, referred to as A-B-C. And the rules are that Wave A will Equal Wave C. If that is true, then the target price for the bottom is 390, at which point the Wave Three of the Super Cycle will commence. And if that’s true, then Apple is in for an incredible run to the Wave Three potential, which is measured by multiplying the Fibonacci Golden ration of 1.618 times the percentage of the advance, which works out to 1404! Whoa! And could go as high as 1600! But that will take 2 to 3 years.”
Read more in the full article here.
Wow !!! This is a very good thing for those investors who have been bullied since September 2012 . I am one of them !!
Sell and run away .. AAPL stock is toxic. All indication points to apple disaponting earning call but will calm down some investor by paying more divedent. Apple is not going above $500 this year but next year will be year of AAPL. You can buy after earning call with either lower or higher price but with more clarity
We’ve wave to you later from our Apple stock bought yacht’s as you mine the shoreline with your metal detector looking for valuables stepping on and finding the occasional worthless nail.
Now why do you go and say sell? Are you concerned for your poor dumb Apple investor buddies? You feel you need to help us?
What is a divedent? The hole in the bottom when some drunken moron doesn’t realize that there was no water in the pool?
You are so right… How can I ever thank you for your lucid prognostication and in depth anal -y-a*s? So when I bought in the mid-teens and have seen a split or two, with the current price of over $425, I am just sitting on a poison that could kill my dreams of a comfortable lifestyle? With only 10,000 shares, I guess you are right.
Thank you so much. Please let us know your web-address where you write more of your concise daily projections of the chemical structure of Apple’s share value.
Cheers.
Yeah, this is a company with no growth prospects…and it’s only making $10 billion± dollars a quarter in net profit? …what are these analysts thinking? and 43% of current iphone owners plan to upgrade?
Apple has never had any respect from analysts, and that is for as long as I have owned apple stock…going on 8 years now? I am convinced that there is nothing apple can do to gain respect…..wait till they turn their sights on the enterprise business…..i feel it happening….the final frontier….
You know, I bought much of my AAPL stock starting in 1995. It’s just a shame that I haven’t followed the advice of the incredibly stupid…. Hell, I could have sold at $50, $100 or many other price points where the WISE instructed us to dump it and run. The point is: now I collect a quarterly dividend that is probably greater than the total amount invested in those sub $10 shares of AAPL. I would advise you not to get into a role as an investment advisor!
What have you got to say about Apple stock now? It is above $500!!!
IF & that is a BIG IF! the SEC were to be true to its true blind ineptness and DO A FORMAL INVESTIGATION on the trading corruption AAPL @ best will once again return to its all time high of $705.00. I’m not holding my breath. The corruption goes far deeper than the SEC. It goes all the way to the top. Sad.
“Trading corruption” is a classic tautological phrase.
i’ve read about elliott wave for years and sort of believe in it
but then i’m still waiting for MS stock to start going back up as well. not that i own any but just because the theory says it should
Except Microsoft has proven they are a one OS & Office Suite Trick Pony who prefers hibernation and pants caught down surprise from competitor’s advancements instead of operating 24/7 on the next big thing.
Quick Ma! Sell the chickens! We gone buy some Apples!
The Elliot Wave principle implies that the future can be determined by analysing the past. First of all, I don’t think that it’s true and secondly if it were true, then traders would buy and sell according to those rules, which would distort the market and ensure that the theory did not work.
i have read of predictions based on the theory happen. notably the crash or 2008 and 2009
the only flaw in the article is time. it took apple over a decade to get to 705. according to the theory the current crash should last about as long
No- Apple went from the low $400s to over $700 in well under a year.
So the sun won’t rise tomorrow morning, the mail won’t be delivered, and nobody will buy coffee at Starbuck’s tomorrow…yep!
So the sun MIGHT NOT rise tomorrow morning, the mail MIGHT NOT be delivered, and MAYBE nobody MIGHT buy coffee at Starbuck’s tomorrow…
As long as it is put this way, you could be right.
I think you missed my sarcasm. If we did not predict the future from the events of the past each and every day we’d never get out of bed.
With a P/E of 9? I don’t think so. I don’t see Apple doubling or tripling it’s revenue in that time period. What new product would all this money be coming from? Seriously, we’re talking about a stock that’s nearly impossible to get any share gains from because average investors are too scared of purchasing the stock due to its high volatility. There are so many poisoned news media views that get such high profile, it just doesn’t seem possible to shake the image of being a ruined company. At this point, Apple getting back to $700 seems like a stretch as Apple’s P/E continues to implode.
I hear you, Boy…but I would not be surprised to see a wave of bad news stories for Samsung, Windows, etc. in the next couple years. This will move the pendulum back to Apple and the bull run will be on.
First it is ludicrous to assume that Apple’s P/E ratio has to remain a constant for the future. Many, many, many other tech companies trade at much, much higher multiples.
Second, the “average” investor does not drive the stock price. Has not done so for many years. For the stock related to a large company like Apple the institutional investors and very large individual investors are the ones who control the stock price.
Will Apple’s stock go back up to $700 in 2013? Only if they come out with an entirely new class of product (iTV? iWatch? iHome [name taken]? or ???) that sells very well. Will AAPL reach $1,600 in 2014 or even 2015? I very much doubt it. I’d be very pleasantly surprised if it did, but I strongly doubt it.
I feel dumber after reading this excerpt from the article. My bullshit meter spiked.
Yeah, I never said I believed in Elliott Wave or Technical Analysis, or Fundamental Analysis for that matter. All these disciplines are highly subjective and can be spun to whatever degree of shit slinging you can imagine. In the article I say as much.
I’m just placating all those people that think in those terms. I think stock prices go up and down mainly on the whim of the mob, irrational exuberance, feeding frenzies, and other total bullshit. So, I agree with you. My bullshit meter overfloweth.
Wave this! What a goof!
Hey MDN, I want to have the following headline back:
Apple shares hit new all-time intraday and closing highs.
In NASDAQ trading today, Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares gained $0.19, or 0.19%, on below-average volume of 11,399,090 shares to set a new all-time closing high of $702.10.
Of the 7 firms AMERITRADE uses rating stocks when you pull up AAPL today, 4 are hold and 3 are buy.
All the statistics and goofy waves and equations will never correctly predict the stock price. There are too many mindless short term investors in the market that buy and sell on rumors,
Maybe sooner than anyone thinks… aren’t you guys aware about a conspiracy with Apple working with the North Koreans to wipe out Samsung from the business map…so, yeah $1600 per share in 3 months.
On the contrary, my tracking of the phases of the planet Neptune tells me that Apple stock will reach $100,000,000 by Tuesday next.