Apple is not worth $460

“My reason for investing in AAPL is simple and most likely too simplistic (or dumb) for most. I do not want to write about AAPL’s future and what their product pipeline is like. I want to reiterate that I did not buy AAPL for their product pipeline,” Jae Jun writes for Seeking Alpha. “Instead, AAPL at the moment is a classic case of ‘heads I win, tails I don’t lose much.'”

“Seth Klarman also referred to this as downside protection investing,” Jun writes. “All you have to do is protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”

“AAPL is cheap and there is no need to complicate it. Fundamentally, it is extremely cheap by being priced for zero growth,” Jun writes. “Zero growth expectations with a bullet proof balance sheet protects the downside and AAPL will have to experience some severe negative growth for it to be a value trap.”

Muchd more in the full article here.

42 Comments

  1. Contrary to some, Apple’s products are quite good to great. You don’t become the number 1 and 2 world wide phone maker on bad products. The number 1 tablet maker. Number 1 in service and support. Number 1 Portable maker. The best all in one Computer maker. Number 1 portable MP3 player. The stock is worth $1000.00 a share easy with Apple’s strong products and cash on hand with no debt. No other company can match the product line up or service that Apple provides. Just because Apple doesn’t bring out an extreme new product every time someone or some STUPID Anal-ists wants it doesn’t mean Apple doesn’t have new stuff coming. If you bet they don’t, you will lose! Great quality products don’t get made overnight. If it was that easy then everyone would have one every day of the year. It just doesn’t work that way. There’s no magic wand contrary to what many think.

  2. Name calling and venting over my posts doesn’t accomplish anything. Thick skulls prevent an intrusion of truth. So, let me say it again – the marvelous products of Apple’s past DO NOT IMPRESS investors.

    I have absolutely no idea who should lead the company’s recovery and inspire innovation again. But, the current guy obviously CANNOT DO IT. So, what’s so hard about that to understand.

    Amazing fact is that AAPL investors understand what I’m saying very well. That’s why the stock price has collapsed. You guys in the MDN world are the ones who look foolish.

    Other than Randian, the rest of you have nothing to offer but a suggestion that Apple keep doing what it is doing. So, how’s that working out for you?

    1. Let me say it again, I am an investor and not only do the the marvelous products of Apple’s past impress me as an investor but it also demonstrates a process by which future products will have the same panache as those of the past. It isn’t the “product to be your best” it’s “the power to be your best”.

      The past of science isn’t because of a product that was invented way back when, it was because of the process of the scientific method. That’s why it doesn’t matter if it is Newton or Einstein takes the helm to make new discoveries. It’s the process. Now if Tim Cook is changing the process yeah, that would further your argument.

      Your make a great point: “I have absolutely no idea who should lead the company’s recovery and inspire innovation again.”

      Well you should find that out because it would be viewed, at least by this investor as a much more positive input than your constant ranting of Tim Cook, which is borderline trolling and almost indicative of a certain fan obsession with John Lennon if you catch my drift.

      I’ll tell you one more thing, and this comes from nature, and ecosystems. “Ecological diversity is ecological stability”. Your posts are simply not diverse, hence I and others are beginning to question your stability, just like many of us did with Zune Thang.

      I respect your point about Tim Cook, even though I don’t agree with it, but gee whizz, surely you can comment about other topics in a positive or negative manner without tossing your distaste for Tim Cook every single time.

      I think it would do you a world of good, and a world of good to this site, which I will point out is not run by Tim Cook. Isn’t that something…..

  3. For onlookers from the FuTuRe: Yes, some of us alive in this time period recognize how utterly insane the period of ‘Apple Bears’ has been. As you already know, there is no future in biznizz bozosity, as represented by our period’s Wall Street parasites and psychopaths. Some of us know full well that Apple, and the Apple way of actual business, is the positive future ahead. Don’t worry. We’re not all suckers of the propaganda and manipulation. See you in the fUtUrE!
    😀

  4. Lets not forget the monster quarter Apple just had. iPhone sales growth is still good especially when you factor in the extra week. The big funds pulled out because they saw potential to create momentum in other stocks. Did you notice the cnbc fast money guys started recommending RIMM and NOK over Apple? The bottom line is everyone is underestimating the magnitude of what this company is capable of. I am expecting some huge things this year. Jobs left a long term plan in place and it will play out nicely imo.

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