Avi Gilburt writes for MarketWatch, “In my last write-up on Apple in August, when it was around 660, I said: ‘As for the larger perspective, we are expecting a near-term top on Apple (AAPL), with potential targets at the $693, $712 and $722 regions. After AAPL hits this upper target range, I think we will see a sizable correction, which will likely take AAPL back into the $500 region. So, if you are an AAPL trader, you may want to ring the cash register… and prepare to reload at much lower levels.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Avi, change your name to “Eerie” and, quick, tell us what happens next!
“I would be watching AAPL very carefully over the next week or two for technical signals of bottoming in the cited region of 515-522. It could be a huge buying opportunity for AAPL, which may yet see new all-time highs early next year,” Gilburt writes.
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If the capital gaing tax is going up on Jan 1, sell AAPL and everything else now and pay the tax. Then buy Apple back while it is still low.
Right now what’s driving it is the fear, or rather panic, that cap gains taxes are certain to be going up and take a bigger bite out of some huge AAPL profits. Panic over uncertainties is usually overdone. Whenever it becomes clear where the 2013 rates are headed, that stone will be lifted from the stock.
They seriously need to stop calling Apple’s bottoms and tops. They’re just guessing and it’s not helping independent investors at all.
Do you think that analysts care about the independent investor? Hell no. We’re pawns to them to move the market in the direction they want.
When analysts focus solely on WOW factors or vaporware I have no interest in what they say. When an analyst actually looks at the fundamentals and has the balls to say Apple will have huge success in their current product line then I will start to listen.
These guys create so much FUD based on nothing but pure speculation on future products and potential pitfalls. It’s all designed to generate an atmosphere where they control the sentiment so that they can move the stock in the direction they want.
I stopped reading as soon as I read the word “technical.” Pure voodoo. Understanding a company’s fundamentals is the only way to clearly understand its financial integrity and where the company is headed, not looking for teacup or cream-and-sugar patterns on a graph, whatever that means.
As soon as I saw your (Brian) focus on mention of ‘fundamentals’ , I knew that you had no clue. Just look at any company you want and you will see that there is a poor correlation between fundamentals and stock price. The real relationship that is so intangible is the mood of the market. AAPL has shown that it can have incredible ‘fundamentals’ and still not get the recognition (stock price) we think it deserves.
As far as I understand it, Fundamentals for REAL value. Technical for when to buy. You buy if the technicals say it’s oversold and it has strong fundamentals.
It’s actually a combination of both.
If it were that simple, there would be a formula for it and everyone would be on a level playing field. The truth is that the market is based on greed and fear and has little to do with numbers unless you use numbers to scare yourself.
It’s not a formula, but it’s a pattern. AAPL is, by the fundamentals, apparently undervalued. Technically it’s oversold.
Many recognize it’s off the fundamentals and is strongly likely to return to them. That’s what I mean. Of course, it’s all about greed. It’s what capitalism runs on.
The market mood is fearful and even a great stock like AAPL suffers from the collective fear. As it ran up to over $700, the retail public ran out of money and investors to sustain the run. The institutions knew this and were the ones selling into the retail market. The fearful retail market began selling when the price dropped and guess who the buyers were? Institutional buyers.
I don’t think this is taking into account the macroeconomic conditions of the next year. Apple will continue to trend down as the entire market trends down. Major companies are already missing their guidance significantly and most are giving lower guidance for the next quarter. The economy is treading water.
So MDN, he was correct. And you gig him for that? Most people understood that once it reached its all time high it was due for a correction. So he was simply pointing out the obvious. It’s why the stock sold off when it did. People knew to take profit. And they did. It’s normal with Apple and with most stocks. Nothing new here. I’m not sure what he means about the $500 region? At $543 we’re certainly in the 5 hundreds. But maybe he means closer to $500? Just a guess, but I don’t think we’ll get that low. I believe resistance is at $525 and I don’t believe we’ll even touch that. But I’m going to be very, very careful before I jump back in any more than I have lately. Which is just a little bit. Apple tried today but just couldn’t get started. Patience, patience is golden now.
Apple will probably continue to see modest gains during the day and then sell off into the close for the next 3 or 4 weeks.