Is AAPL toxic; has it peaked?

78 Comments

“After a nearly 10% drop in Apple (AAPL) from a lifetime high of $705.07 to a recent $638.17, the debate is on over whether it’s a deal now or whether it’s toxic,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.

“This morning, Nomura Equity Research’s Stuart Jeffrey initiates coverage of the stock with a Neutral rating and a $710 price target,” Ray reports. “His ‘checks’ of the supply chain suggest Apple will beat expectations for this quarter, fiscal Q1, and March, and there is “no material downside risk to consensus estimates,” but he sees growth slowing to single digits for Apple in 2014, and ‘as a company predominantly driven by mobile phones, an industry prone to volatility, we see little scope for upside given our single-digit earnings growth forecast beyond 2014.'”

Read more in the full article here.

78 Comments

      1. Bought my first Apple stock with tax refund money in 2001 for less than $10/share (pre-split) making it effectively less than $5/share. Apple customer since 1979.

        Hardly a moron or a shill. Just not a blinded fanboi.

        Stopped buying in the $320 range and sold a small block of stock at $404 and bought a new car for cash. The rest is part of my retirement portfolio.

        Apple is a nice $400 stock. It’s overpriced, as is a lot of the market. QE has inflated everything- including Apple.

        Reply

    2. I am thinking $450.00 and nice quarterly dividends which I much prefer over having to crystallize gains by selling the stock. This was not an option for us since 1997 but dividends are now part of the discussion again.

      Apple not unlike others before it will run into having to introduce a set of course corrections as the consumer’s appetite to part with their money to buy minor evolutions will slow to a crawl mid 2013 onward.

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        1. You are so right… Bozo forgot to mention Bill Gates’s financial intervention in 1998 that kept Apple in business. My mistake.

          Not sure who you are or what you think you know, but revisionary history on Apple Computers which then became Apple Inc. is not that hard to understand.

        2. Hugo,

          Apple displaced the iPod with the iPhone.

          They started displacing the PC laptop with the MacBook Air.

          They started displacing the PC with the iPad.

          Long before the iPhone get’s repetitive, Apple will build and release something to displace it.

          I know, teaching the facts of life to trolls is a waste of time, but someone has to try.

        3. What are you talking about? Who have they displaced? 66 million OSX users 1.5 billion Windows users, more Android users globally and even in the USA… who have they displaced?

          Your are a FanBoy who makes up crap to suit his needs. You are part of the Apple Inc. propaganda machine and nothing else.

        4. Hugo, if you want to lecture people on historical record, you better get your facts straight. 1.) Bill Gates didn’t “intervene” with anything. Microsoft committed to invest in development of Office for the Mac and took a VERY small equity interest in Apple – and this was self serving at best. It was in this very same time that the DoJ was pursuing it massive suit against MSFT for monopolistic activity relative IE and Windows98. Putting an economic effort into the Apple space was extremely strategic for MSFT. 2.) This effort did not “keep Apple in business.” I will grant you that it drew much attention, but the reality is, it was the redirection from a massive product lineup under horrible leadership to a streamlined product map under the return of Steve Jobs that saved Apple and kept it in business. And yes, I was there when Steve presented this on stage at Boston MacWorld – sitting maybe 15 feet away from him – so I have a pretty vivid memory of what transpired. And as I have been in business with Apple for some time, I understand WHY as well. 2.) Apple’s name change did not take place till a DECADE LATER after the introduction of the iPhone. 3.) Your numbers clearly show just how much blue sky Apple has to pursue and how little opportunity individual vendors in the Android and MSFT arena have to work with – there are many more opportunities for Apple to pursue than the other way around. 4.) You are a troll and a short shill and you couldn’t argue your way out of a wet paper bag.

        5. I would bury you in a debate anytime and based your verbosity I would do so debating any subject! You are an iSheep who has developed a sense of entitlement and security that is fictitious and borders on mental illness. You speak like Pres Obama and that is like a Preacher…. Kool-Aid anyone. Move on idiot.

        6. The Microsoft announcement of support was more important than the money- which was symbolic. At the time the loss of Office would have been catastrophic in the commercial market.

        9. Hugo tooltardtroll, the only revisionist history spewage is yours. The $150 mil and the promise to develop Office Mac for 5 more years was only the visible public viewed tip of the larger undisclosed settlement iceburg MS had to fork over for stealing QuickTime code.

          The MS stock ws not voting, and the spin that MS somehow ‘saved’ or ‘purchased’ Apple is just FUD spewed by trolls, pundits, and know nothing analists…. I’m sure you know the type. (Yep, looking at YOU Hugo = Gary = edward = Pat

        10. What is it with iSheeps…. can’t read? I never claimed that MSFT purchased or owned Apple? The fact is that SJ and BG made the deal failing which Apple was done like dinner. No doubt that there were mitigating circumstances but in the end the deal allowed Apple to carry on.

          Give you brainless head a shake Bongo and get a life!

        11. Let’s say you’re right. Which you’re not. Why would you be posting on a website called “MacDailyNews?” You are as darknite correctly pointed out, a troll (though I must say, I do like the name tooltardtroll). There is after all, no other reason for you to be posting comments here. So, it goes back to why I previously said, you discredit yourself the moment you start typing. Since you’re such a fine one for perspective, Apple’s cash balance is for all intense purposes, equal to MSFT’s original investment. Stick that in your hole and chew on it.

        12. My affinity to Apple is such that I love the products but hate the iSheep culture hence I come on here and ruffle their feathers so to speak. Hitler’s Germany is cause enough to be concerned about the iSheep behaviour as it certainly has several common denominators with cult like attributes.

          So, I will always challenge an iSheep and will do so while proudly displaying what is probably more Apple products than most iSheeps can ever dream to own without getting themselves into serious debt.

        14. Huge Ego, you concede you’re a troll, and so, again, you prove me right all the while you continue to discredit yourself. First the Obama comment and now the Hitler comment. Shame you tried to pick a fight with a politically conservative Jew. You lose.

        15. Once again giving FAR too much credit to MS. The settlement (not a gentleman’s deal between SJ & BG) didn’t hurt Apple, but not having the settlement in place wouldn’t have destroyed the company.

          Jobs’ return to the company, trimming the mess of products into clear distinct lines, taking the iCEO title, and the introduction of the iMac in ’98 and the iPod in 2001 is what saved the company, NOT MS.

        16. If you’re going to quibble, make damn sure you are correct. There never was a company named “Apple Computers.” There was once a company name “Apple Computer.”

          Bill Gate’s did not make a financial intervention in Apple. Microsoft’s financial investment was not necessary either. Microsoft bought non-voting stock on which they made a large profit only a couple of years later.

        18. Easy now Gramp’s. You are confusing eating apples with using Apple junk back in the day. Apple was in the paper weight business until 2006. Now get some sleep.

        19. Really? Do tell, when did Quicktime come about? You do like watching digital TV right? Where do you think h264 came from? You’ve used a notebook computer? Maybe WiFi? When was the Powerbook 100/140/170 released? And all subsequent models too many to list here? Or how about the first deployment of the Orinoco chipset under the name “AirPort?” Maybe you like fast peripheral busses and fast networking connections? Who was the first to roll out highspeed ethernet across all devices? Let’s move further back? Like laser printers? Maybe quality color inkjet printers? And want them all to print cleanly and smoothly? Oh, the list goes on and on. Hugo the troll, fails again.

        20. Incredible illusion! You need to stop using Wikipedia as you source of reference. If even 1/16th of what you claim is true then Apple would have not taken 31 years to get off the ground. You can believe whatever your feeble mind can conjure up as truths but in the end the proof is simply not in the Apple pudding.

        22. Freshman year of college we started learning BASIC on Apple ][s, Commodore PETs and TRSS-80s. Saved our work to cassette drives. 1979. Got an Apple for Christmas. Bought my first Mac in 1985 and never looked back.

        23. Apple paper weights? Sorry, don’t recall seeing those. I remember how DOS was the MS program, right up until Gates saw the Mac and Sculley gave away the crown jewels on a platter to MS.

          I remember the early quicktake cameras, the first affordable digital cameras of their time. I remember pagemaker, photoshop, and laser printers, and the MANY tech titan companies that exist today because they were early Apple developers.

          I remember PC magazine, declaring in ’94, ’95, ’96, and ’97, that each of those years was DEFINITELY the year USB was going to make it big…….. That prediction came true in ’98 with the release of the iMac (Original Bondi Blue thank you)

          So I’m not sure what paper weights you are referring to.

        26. The problem here PAP (you are PAP with a “newly refined” name aren’t you) with you “proof” is you are using facts not in evidence (and highly suspect.)
          Anyone can say they bought apple at $XX, but unless you can offer some proof of your statement you “proof” here worth about as much as your normal dribble in this forum, nothing

          And that leads us into an interesting paradox (based on your statements & history) you are obviously an Apple hater who derides virtually every product and decision that comes out of apple. (and have done so here with annoying regularity) Now, here is the paradox; only a fool would hold the stock of a company that paid no dividends (and made a point of not doing so until very recently), counting solely on growth, when they believed the direction (products and decisions) of the company was so poor.

          So, there you have it PAP, you are either a liar or a fool. Or perhaps, as I suspect, both.

      1. I have no doubt it might go higher before reality takes hold. If it hits $800 I might sell some more, but am not buying.

        As to the Wall Street pundits- It will be below $500 before it sees $1000. The problem is not so much Apple as the economy. China is sliding into recession, Germany is starting to sputter, the rest of the Eurozone is sickly and the US is just starting to awaken from slumber with lots of budgetary issues from local to Federal levels.

        With a shitty economy even Apple will eventually slow. Likewise, iOS has been out long enough that existing units become a competitor to new unit sales.

        Not an Apple hater- just not a Fanboi.

        The Gold I bought last year is starting to look good. And no- I’m not a Gold bug.

        Reply

  2. How in the world could they have any idea that Apple’s earnings growth will dramatically slow in 2014? Are they assuming Apple won’t release any new or updated products that people want in the next two years?

    Reply

    1. growth is from new products

      anyone who doesn’t have a smart phone now doesnt want one. although i might get a few 4S’s or 4’s as gifts to my mom and inlaws this year

      Reply

    2. Better yet. They are assuming all the competition will survive and stay in the industry. Do they have any clue what is happening to the other Android devices, PC box makers, … (IBM stepped out and HP may be next, again! It looks like HTC, RIMM, Nokia, … will be out soon.) Do they even know that Apple is only now starting to sell to China? Do they think Google maps are what will be used in China? Really!

      Another clueless talking head.

      Reply

      1. You sir are the clueless talking head. Consolidation will actually not favour Apple Inc. unless Apple Inc. is actively involved in the consolidation. It will be a battle of the OS’s moving forward with iOS, Android and Windows 8 having at it with Windows 8 I believe leading the way starting in late 2013. Oh and yes we could be one major security breach short of all us running back to the mobile phone pioneering company which is commonly known as RIM for shelter.

        Reply

        2. Hilarious satire. What gave it away was the ridiculous prediction that Windows Phone will go from having 2% marketshare in 2012 to “leading” in late 2013. You sir, are a comic genius. I’m still laughing as I type this.

        3. Who said Windows Phone would lead? I suggested that they will have their say in marketshare arguments as they have 1.5 billion users that do not give a cat’s meow about Apple.

          As for RIM. easy on the ignorant comments as they hold the key to security and as it stands it continues to be unmatched hence why Pres. Obama lost his iPad a few weeks back which was replaced with the only tablet approved for US Government Official’s on the job use… Playbook.

        4. I started writing a reply, but haven’t stopped laughing. Seriously man, what gives? Your comments are so off the wall and so absurd, I don’t even know where to begin. You know NOTHING about IT. You know NOTHING about security. You know NOTHING about the technical merit or liabilities of ANY of the products you’re discussing. You through comments around that are so transparent – so clearly indicating your troll and short motives… and you continuously discredit yourself. I mean, EVERY single time you post! Seek help, seriously.

    3. Fanboys need to tone it down. You can release gadgets all day long but consumers need to have a need for them or else you are only selling to the Cult. Ask Honda and Toyota about running the tables for a decade + and then stalling to no end.

      The lay of the land is not favourable to a continuum of the current trends at Apple and while Fan Boys do not want to hear it, MSFT and Android are a handful to deal with now and that will only get more intense in 2013.

      I made a lot of money playing MSFT, Nortel and others during their day in the sun cycle but a cycle is just that a cycle.

      FanBoys need to remember that Apple is a 36 year old company that has only been truly relevant since circa 2006 and that there continues to be 1.5 billion Windows users out there along with millions of Android users who will have something to say about which company they will roll with and dollars to donuts it is not Apple.

      Reply

      1. They very fact that you would compare Apple vis-a-vis the rest of the tech market to automotive manufacturers such as Honda and Toyota compared to their competition completely discredits you from the get-go. And then to look at AAPL as just a cyclical play in the perspective of your prior experiences with MSFT and Nortel show that either you are grossly out of touch or just a much more well spoken short-shill troll that normally inhabits these threads. Understanding the unique, super-horizontally and fully integrated status that Apple has created for itself doesn’t make me a fanboy – but your failure to acknowledge this reality does make you a dolt.

        Reply

        1. Hogwash! Your verbiage comes off like that of President Obama’s. You are preaching about a whole lot of innuendoes, self proclaimed prophecies and you sir are a disciple and the dolt you speak of.

          Of course Apple is nothing more than a cyclical play as are all companies who sell products to keep the doors open. Meds failing you?

          Unbelievable!

        2. As a staunch conservative I take great offense to you comparing me to Hussein Obama – not that you should care, but I thought I’d put it out there just for the hell of it. And while its easy to say “hogwash” you are in effect stating that Apple competes against other tech companies in the same fashion that Honda and Toyota (your named examples) compete against their competition. The argument is so incredibly fundamentally flawed on so many levels, its just plain staggering. As I said before, you discredit yourself from the start – and honestly, much more soundly than I ever could. So thank you.

      2. Well, based on the initial sales numbers of the iPhone 5, and the continued sales of iPads and Mac sales still growing (I’m expecting better growth than the 2% year ago quarter growth we saw last quarter), I’d say that they must be selling to one large cult.

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      3. Tooltard Hugo = Gary = Pat

        Go troll somewhere else. Apple’s great products and sles of those products speak for themselves. Not the cheap plastic copy clones whos numbers come from buy one get one or two.

        I guess you wouldn’t even like to go there about how 1.3 billion of your fake number windows users are using XP or earlier…. MS old strategy of good enough finally bites them in the butt.

        Reply

        1. Now now… Tone it down. You have not seen the likes of what is about to hit Apple when MSFT launches its to die for modern interactive live UI and speedy devices around the Globe!

          Hehehe This is so much fun! Apple sauce anyone?

    4. The world economy sucks right now and many already have iOS and Mac devices that serve them well. That makes the new thing not so necessary- especially when the economy has issues.

      Reply

  4. Not only do these analysts have such incredibly limited understanding of how Apple works – they also seem to collectively suffer from short term (and even long term) memory issues. here are just a few reminders of this past year:

    From July 25 to August 27, AAPL went from 574.97 to 675.88. Essentially $100 in one month.

    From Sept 11 at 660.59 AAPL went to 702.10 on Sept 19, a rise of $42 in less than 2 weeks.

    Earlier in the year, AAPL was at 530.26 on March 6 and on April 9 it was at 636.23. Again, that’s over $100 in one month.

    AAPL can run quickly. And from lows, it usually does.

    Reply

  10. Any financial share has its toxic side. No money is sure and the whole economy is based on very fluctuant values. In fact, the currencies are all over evaluated. As long as people have faith in these peaces of paper, things go approximately well. But, these days, i’m afraid that it could just turn as it did in the twenties: people will understand that things are rotten. Too many banknotes are thrown around to keep up trust. No prayers, no patriotisms, no speeches will change anything to it.

    Reply

  13. 2008 — android coming out, hordes of OEMs jumping on the bandwagon from HTC, Motorola, LG, Samsung etc etc.
    Pundits say it would be worse than Mac vs Pc as Android unlike Windows was FREE. The iPhone was considered the only new product for apple and it was according to the critics ‘dead in the water’ and Apple should “Pull the Plug” (Dvorak)

    in 2007 – 08 (IPhone , Android announcements) aapl was around 100. Today after android attack aapl is 650.

    Today after the Android Attack , iPhone (profits climbing every quarter) takes 70+ percent of all the worlds phone profits including dumb phones. Meanwhile its competitors HTC, Rim , Nokia , Motorola is crashing and burning.

    Tell me now haters WHAT today equals the danger of the Android announcement in 2008 to apple’s health?
    Windows 8 phone? HTC lost 50% of share price, Rimm, Nokia even more and on life support, Motorola losing money for 14 quarters out of 16 would be broke if google didn’t buy it …

    Apple’s P.E is lower today than when aapl was at 100.

    sheeesh

    Reply

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