“In my last post, we had estimated 150-170 million global iPhone sales over the next four quarters, based on the impact of the last three iPhone launches on QoQ growth patterns,” Sameer Singh writes for Tech-Thoughts.
“Now, let’s use the same methodology to reach a realistic sales estimate for the iPhone for each of Apple’s non-retail operating segments (regions), i.e. the Americas, Europe, Japan and APAC,” Singh writes. “Since the iPhone’s average sales price (ASP) is fairly consistent across geographies, we can get a decent estimate of region-wise iPhone shipments, by looking at quarterly shipment figures and Apple’s revenue break-up by operating segment.”
Singh writes, “M full-year estimate is 60-70 million sales in the Americas, 40-50 million in Europe, 10-13 million in Japan and 35-45 million in the APAC region , totaling to about 150-170 million iPhone sales globally.
Much more, including charts and methodology, in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Brawndo Drinker” for the heads up.]
You can’t keep a good company down. FUD all you can while you can, Apple will kick ass as usual in all categories- kapish?
FUD? It’s simply his opinion. Maybe he’s right? Maybe he’s wrong? Jeez! Quit with the fanboy childish bullshit comments. What? He’d be spot on if his estimates were double? Quit acting like a spoiled 10 year old. We”ll see if he’s correct. I hope not but I’m not going to get pissed and hold my breath. Grow up.
Seems like pretty shallow analysis to not consider supply…
Supply is usually only issue for demand spikes over shorter time frames, like pre-orders or a product launch. It is extremely unlikely for supply to be a constraint for sales over a whole year.
Yeah, this idiot is just guessing like every other analyst out there. There are so many things that can go wrong to make all of his numbers way too high. This isn’t a perfect world and all things do not go according as planned. These rah-rah analysts like Gene Munster continue to skew real world numbers with their own enthusiasm and ignorance. Apple has a real world supply chain that can be interrupted at any time. Is Apple even able to stockpile enough components in case of an interruption? Who knows for sure. It’s probably not even in the millions. Apple likely operates on “just in time” supply which although efficient, it makes Apple very vulnerable to supply chain interruptions. Any sabotage could bring Apple to its knees.
I’m getting sick of having Apple’s sales expectations being blown out of proportion because Wall Street doesn’t appear very forgiving with Apple for “missed” expectations of a few over-enthusiastic analysts. Apple’s share price is far too vulnerable to media manipulation. A $40 loss in share price is really too much for 20% increased sales YOY of a product.
Wall Street doesn’t give anybody a pass. So they’re not picking on Apple. Analysts are wrong sometimes . Both ways, up and down. If they had underestimated sales everyone here would be all over it too. When you’re the biggest company around you get more attention. It’s not like Wall Street singles out Apple because they don’t like it. It’s just life. Live with it. Don’t take it personally. Apple doesn’t need your “support”. Apple is a huge money making machine. Only it’s a smaller machine today as its down about 45 since Friday! It’s business. Nothing personal. And they don’t care what you or anyone here thinks.