“The NPD Group’s Stephen Baker chose Tuesday 9/11 — the day before the expected launch of Apple’s new iPhone — to pour cold water on what he calls the ‘growing expectation that this release will achieve the equivalent blowout sales success that the iPhone 4s enjoyed,'” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
“Equivalent? As we reported Monday, conventional wisdom on Wall Street has it that the iPhone 5 will outsell the iPhone 4S by a wide margin,” P.E.D. reports. “Among the handful of analysts who were willing to venture a guess, estimates for iPhone 5 sales this quarter (i.e. in the eight days from 9/21 and 9/29) ranged from 6 to 12 million. It took Apple three days to sell 4 million iPhone 4S units last year. Topeka’s Brian White estimates by day 3, the company will have sold 5 to 5.5 million iPhone 5s.”
P.E.D. reports, “Stephen Baker begs to differ.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on Sunday:
“The iPhone 5 will break all smartphone sales records – just like every single iPhone model before it.”
We are continuously told Apple has too little marketshare and now it is suddenly in danger of saturation when feature phones still exist?
@ MDN
You are right, iphone 5 will break all records because very few people are going to buy this phone with same old boring design.
@ Apple fans
Try to accept truth. 😉
Idiot
You are right, every idiot owns an iphone.
Why don’t you accept the truth? Every cheap guy now has iphone, therefore, it looks very cheap to own an iphone.
. . . and you are expensive with your Android phone?
hahaha
Hello idiot # 313c7ro
Is that the best you can do? Resort to name calling?
Good luck in your life.
I can see smoke coming from your ass. hahaha
😉
And exactly why are you looking at that part of my body?
Gupta likes it in the ass. That’s where stores his Samsung
Now you are just projecting, Gupta. Just because that is what you enjoy you can’t assume anyone else does it. But hey why you do with your phone is up to you. You don’t have to abuse or hate yourself for having an unnatural attraction to your Samsung phone. You might be the only one, but you don’t have to feel alone. I’m sure your masters at Samsung will send you a text with your snappy retort soon. I’m guessing you enjoy the way your phone vibrates up in dat dark space.
@ Gupta,
you are not only obnoxious, but also ignorant !! x 2
Why are you here, asshole? In case your little mind hasn’t figured this out yet- this is an APPLE centric site, NOT a Shitdung or Hemroid/Gaggle centric forum. If your goal is to try and “reform” us or something, we couldn’t give a shit about anything you might have to say. So- just bugger off, ok?
Oh you put iphone in your ass and get shocked.
Wow- good job, Dickta, I mean Dipshit, oops I mean Gitgo. Must have earned at least $0.25 cents from your Shitdung masters for that one.
you guys need to chill out. Who cares if someone says something negative about the iPhone here and there. Why do so many people on here react like they are defending their very existence anytime someone says something negative. My house is like an Apple display room, but I couldn’t give a toss if someone doesn’t like them. Yes this is an Apple centric site, but why feed the trolls?!
Well definately don’t give a toss cuz Gupta will wear out his knee pads slurping it up.
Very nice Balance. But it’s a small minority of Fanboys that are the rabid bigmouth haters. Most of us are just like you. We have used Apple stuff forever and love it but we realize it’s just a company it’s not anything personal. They don’t need defending because they are not our best buddy. I don’t defend Home Depot or Walgreens or Cosco if someone says something nasty about them. Why would I? That would be juvenile. And that’s what we’re talking about here mostly. Immature, juvenile fanboys.
hahaha
I love it when apple fans act like children. 😉
Now so many red-necks are using iPhones too. OMG, iphone looks so cheap, it is NO more unique.
You are right of course, didn’t mean to generalize so much. Most people here are not so full on.
I think Gupta is a word salad bot. His comments are intended to resemble English but don’t quite get there. Maybe he is using Google translate?
I guess we will have to wait and see. Didn’t the analysts say the 4S wouldn’t sell as a minor upgrade??
Too many 4S sales will limit the 5 sales success to Cult members.
Your welcome.
Google
I think saturation would only help in this situation, there are many people who always upgrade to the newest iPhone available. One can always sell or pass down there old iPhone to family members etc.
Ha. Soooo wrong on that.
Why would you pick the day before to make a claim like this only to be brutally bludgeoned the next day being wrong? What does this guy have to gain except to look stupid? He stuck his neck out under the Apple iPhone 5 sale guillotine blade.
I really hate to see what happens with IP5 sales, it may just boil out his cold water.
Well, for all those people who bought an iPhone 4S, there were millions that still had a 4 or older phone (like me) that are due to upgrade. There are plenty of customers out there. Tomorrow I’ll happily be one of them. =)
I have an iPhone 4 (still a damn fine phone) and my wife still has my old 3G (not 3GS). Tomorrow we will achieve phone parity. 🙂
Exactly…for the phones I manage, I’ve got 4 upgrade available and they will all be used tomorrow. Then out 4S’s will be passé on down the line.
That is exactly right. I see more 3GS than any other iPhone so this saturation thing is a bunch crap.
Wanna bet?
I’m guessing those that had the 3GS and 4 like myself who’s plans has expired are more then ready to get Siri!
Line’m up boys, we have cash in hand.
I’m still using a 4, and was recently asked by an AT&T salesperson if I’m looking forward to upgrading. Actually, the answer is no. I love my iPhone 4; it does everything I want and does it brilliantly. However, if I look into selling it and find that I can get a good price, I might upgrade and sell. I guess it will depend on market saturation. By the way, I still have my original unlimited data plan and will not willingly give it up.
Another clueless CNN’s analyst. I won’t read. I won’t click.
They said that about the 4S, not a big enough upgrade and look what happened. I’m with MDN, the newest model will have new sales records once again.
Apple could save a drowning man by walking on water and the media would say that Apple can’t swim.
Good line.
Same baloney from the folks who reported millions of Samsung sales only outed to be alie from the figures divulged in the lawsuit which apple won.
Criminals in my book.
MDN’s take: I thin the whole “like we said” thing is getting out of hand. It’s been twp days, and nothing has changed. Do you understand how that works?
fwiw…
according to phil schiller, each new iphone model has sold as many units as all previous models combined.
on asymco, horace dediu turns that statement into a forecast a 170 million iphone 5 units sold in the 12 mos after launch.
boy genius believes that gross margin on the 4s is around 75%.
macrumors reports an average selling price of $659.
170m x 75% x $659 = $84b
Gross margins aren’t that high:
—
The [court] filing, reported by Reuters, shows Apple earned gross margins of 49 to 58 percent on U.S. iPhone sales between April 2010 and the end of March 2012.
—
And that’s for all iPhones, with larger margins on older products. In any case, the profit will still be a staggeringly large number…
good catch. 75% as defined by BGR is: asp-bill of materials.
so… with 49%, the 12 mo earnings for a single line of business come to $54.9b
not bad.
So how many will sell? Anyone knows. But here are some notes on constraints:
http://beta.fool.com/jaans/2012/09/11/understanding-apple-iphone-5-techies-take/11786/
I know a lot of people who are planning on leaving the iPhone, they are getting frustrated with certain aspects of it, the vast majority of which i think is crap and they’ll find Android a pain in the ass i think and end up coming back to ios one day. . I’ll still be buying one, but if that new patent to shut down the iPhone camera remotely gets implemented it’ll he my last. That’s Orwellian scary shit right there, and has left me in a crisis with regard to Apple. I know people here often defend everything they do but surely that is a concern for people right? Do you really want them to have that power over your device? It’s not Apple per se that I’m worried about there, I can’t see them turning it off in a hurry, but once it’s implemented you can be sure that authorities will gain access to it one way or another and buy buy reporting on the crimes of those they don’t want reported. This should never have been created, there is too much room for abuse.
People can leave iPhone any time they want, and I don’t see any evidence of it (I admit that my observation is just as anecdotal as yours). Switches won’t be timed to the availability of a new model (except to the degree that contracts may end in that timeframe).
I think you’re worried about nothing WRT the situational control of video recording. Apple (& everyone else) patents a lot more things than they ever imagine using.
I hope you are right, I did say “if they implemented it”, I suspect there would be a backlash if they did, which will hopefully prevent it happening.
Btw I totally agree what I’ve observed in some people around is anecdotal at best, not trying to suggest it is nesessarily an indication of a larger situation. I was just surprised as they were seemly massive iPhone fans but they have tempted by Galaxy units (for the most part). But as i said, I also believe they would come back to iPhone after having one. I was looking at some wedding photos on a friends Galaxy SII, and bugga me was the photo scrolling shit. Admittedly that’s all I did, so I can’t speak for the rest of its interface to he fair, but it was glitchy as hell. Photos would sometimes shake and not change, often to had to swipe multiple times. It was terrible. Never had anything like that even on the original iPhone.
No problem. Go to the nearest grocery and buy some aluminum foil. Fold it into a hat and you will be protected. That is all.
oh dear, you must be a teenager or something. Really pathetic to ATTEMPT to link concerns over police being able to shut down an entire crowds ability to record events at their choosing to tin foil hat paranoia.
There is a real world out there fella, with people in power who don’t exactly run things for the betterment of the general man or woman on the street. Phone cameras have helped put a spotlight on some of the more extreme situations that come up and thus help stop the situation getting out of control. Implementing a technology that allows for that to end is a real concern going forward. Ignorance is bliss I guess, but wow are you seemingly ignorant to not care about that.
Having said that I still have my doubts it will get implemented in a hurry due to potential backlash. But if it did, its a big step in the wrong direction. When you grow up and have kids one day you learn to think a bit further ahead that next week in regard to how certain things play out in the course of history.
It really depends on how much disposable cash consumers have, can they afford the next big iPhone update, are they eligible for an upgrade or worse if you are on Verizon do you want to pay FULL RETAIL to keep your unlimited data.
I have no dout the iP5 will sell very, very well. But there does come a point where even Apple peaks and sales do go up and down so its hardly a flop and the iPhone sells well all year long.
Plus if the iP4 is the freebie, iP4S is $100 and the iP5 is the high end we may actually see a surge in iP4/iP4S sales.
not again in this time. have you seen situations nowadays? apple has tons of anti-apple people due to lawsuit. even many americans hate rotten apple. continually, apple will lose lawsuit out of country. it will be the last time apple really won in US soil. don’t expect too much on their business. apple will be outcast. see how apple will overcome. they started first. they will get paid back in the end. they will beg to cooperate with other companies.
maybe someday future edward learn maybe to speak english.
Maybe AAPl will do like the others and report “shipped”. If they have enough in the pipeline, they could report x million shipped, even if sales were zero.
Wow–these comments sure are chock full of troll posts. It would be nice if MDN deleted the more obvious ones, such as Edward and Gupta. But the rest of us could at least stop feeding them…