Which way will Apple stock move after Tuesday’s earnings report?

“‘We see a reasonable probability that Apple will miss consensus revenue expectations due to macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks.’ So begins the note to clients issued Friday by Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi in which he lowered most of his estimates, from iPhone unit sales to his top to bottom lines, for Apple’s third fiscal quarter — one of the factors that helped drive the company’s shares down $10.02 (1.63%) for the day,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

P.E.D. reports, “Contrast that with the e-mail I received from Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky after he met with Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and Asymco’s Horace Dediu at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference last week: ‘After speaking with them, I think this could potentially be a blowout quarter. The most recent blowout quarters we’ve seen in Apple took place in fiscal Q1 2012, fiscal Q3 2011 and fiscal Q2 2010. So they don’t happen THAT often. I think this quarter makes for a good set-up.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If we had to bet the house, we’d go with Zaky. Over Toni, we’d go with pretty much anybody. We’ll all know soon enough after market close this coming Tuesday.

Related article:
Apple to webcast Q312 earnings release conference call on July 24 – July 3, 2012

21 Comments

  1. Well there are two choices – either up or down. Of course there could be no change.

    I personally think Apple will have a huge quarter. Everyone is buying an iPhone. Even my bosses and peers who are usually PC centric have them now. The iPad 3 is in its first full quarter and those sales are probably off the charts. Mac sales are surely also increasing.

    Whether the stock will go up or down will depend on whether the brokers are cashing in or deciding to let the stock make a big gain.

    1. Really? If you are so sure you can make a lot of money shorting AAPL. Me, while I think you could be right, i will hedge with straddles. I intend to stay long but I know I am not smart enough to predict the market. Even Buffett leaves AAPL alone, you know.

  2. Where will earnings be this time next year, maybe the better question?

    I suspect still strongly growing ….. Soon we will see bigger numbers from the desktops and laptops as the halo effect grows even faster …..

    Windows 8 will help as well!

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