Which way will Apple stock move after Tuesday’s earnings report?

“‘We see a reasonable probability that Apple will miss consensus revenue expectations due to macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks.’ So begins the note to clients issued Friday by Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi in which he lowered most of his estimates, from iPhone unit sales to his top to bottom lines, for Apple’s third fiscal quarter — one of the factors that helped drive the company’s shares down $10.02 (1.63%) for the day,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

P.E.D. reports, “Contrast that with the e-mail I received from Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky after he met with Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and Asymco’s Horace Dediu at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference last week: ‘After speaking with them, I think this could potentially be a blowout quarter. The most recent blowout quarters we’ve seen in Apple took place in fiscal Q1 2012, fiscal Q3 2011 and fiscal Q2 2010. So they don’t happen THAT often. I think this quarter makes for a good set-up.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If we had to bet the house, we’d go with Zaky. Over Toni, we’d go with pretty much anybody. We’ll all know soon enough after market close this coming Tuesday.

Related article:
Apple to webcast Q312 earnings release conference call on July 24 – July 3, 2012


    1. Not the way it tends to work with Apple.

      On the day of earnings the stock usually closes rather low, driven down by big money who want to force a pop.

      Then after earnings, it gaps up. Usually.

  1. Dividend of 2.65 quarterly begins this quarter with annual yield of about 1.8%. Better than treasuries and dividends will likely grow rapidly over time. Buybacks begin FY 2013 starting this October.

  2. A number of analysts have underestimated the favorable impact of geography, particularly emerging markets and China. Apple needs to be evaluated on the basis of product cycles and international leverage. Most analysts seems to look at product cycles and think domestic. Zaky has been very accurate.

  3. I plan to do some straddles for insurance. My gut feeling is that there will be a drop of 10% but my heart says another quarter record. The Verizon report of lower iPhone sales, some suppliers reporting lower parts orders all tend to make me a bit nervous. I am now holding AAPL as more than 75% of my portfolio. My broker is against that even though I have made huge gains with AAPL. I got stung in Sept 2010 when I had a stop order on 1,000. aAPL was nearing $300 and some hedge fund or other caused a five minute drop to $274.90. Gone in a heartbeat. had to pay taxes on more yhan $250k profit. All cap gains but still. I am now back but this time I will use straddles, cannot lose too much that way. I intend to stay long, but have not added any since Nov 2011. Back in the nineties I lost hundreds of thousands potential gain on ADI as it lost half its value. Still have thousands of that stock. It does pay a divident, but never moves much. It lingers in the high 30s to low 40s, at one time above a hundred. Greed is a heartless mother I have found.

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