Expectations of strong demand for media tablets in the second half of 2012 has led International Data Corporation (IDC) to increase its forecast for the worldwide market to 107.4 million units for the year, up from its previous forecast of 106.1 million units. In the latest forecast update of the Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker, IDC also revised upward its 2013 forecast number from 137.4 million units to 142.8 million units. And by 2016 worldwide shipments should reach 222.1 million units.
“Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side,” said Tom Mainelli, research director, Mobile Connected Devices at IDC, in a statement. “We expect pending new products from major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in the category through the end of the year.”
In addition to increasing the unit totals for 2012, IDC also updated its forecast to shift a larger percentage of future units toward iOS and away from Android. IDC now expects iOS to grow its share of the market in 2012 to 62.5%, up from 58.2% in 2011. Meanwhile Android’s share will slip from 38.7% in 2011 to 36.5% in 2012. IDC expects third-place Blackberry to slip from 1.7% to 1%.
“After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple’s iPad shows few signs of slowing down,” Mainelli added. “The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple’s decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices—moving the entry-level price down to $399—seems to be paying off as well. If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger.”
IDC is not currently forecasting Windows 8 or Windows RT tablets in its Media Tablet Tracker (they appear in the PC Tracker forecast). However, beginning next quarter, IDC will institute several taxonomy changes that will bring all tablet slates, regardless of OS or processor type, into the Media Tablet Tracker.
“We’re looking forward to rolling the Windows-based tablets into our tablet forecast in order to give customers a complete view of tablet slates all in one place,” Mainelli commented. “Our current thinking, based upon early pricing expectations for these products, is that Windows-based tablets will be largely additive to our existing media tablet market forecast. We don’t expect Windows-based tablets to necessarily take share from Apple and Android, but will grow the overall tablet market.”
While IDC increased its forecast for media tablets in 2012, the firm significantly lowered its forecast for eReaders in 2012. After a disappointing first quarter, and strong indications that low-priced tablets are significantly impacting demand, IDC now expects 2012 shipments to be stable at around 28 million units, down slightly from the 28.2 million units that shipped in 2011.
Source: International Data Corporation
“Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side,”.
Correction, “Demand for the iPad remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the iPad from the commercial side,”
Whoever invented the term “media tablet” needs to be smacked. I can’t read the words “media tablet” anymore without interpreting it as “weaselly euphemism for the iPad”:
“Demand for (weaselly euphemism for the iPad) remains robust […]”.
Totally agreed. These erstwhile PR writers can’t use the term “iPad” for the iPad category so they are continually rolling up new terms. Take this, for example, from the same report above:
We’re looking forward to rolling the Windows-based tablets into our tablet forecast in order to give customers a complete view of tablet slates all in one place…
Tablet slates?! But the above comment ought to be iCal’d due to the fact that customers already have a complete view. W8 tablets won’t even warrant the 1mm space in the report given to them. Also perplexing is the way the above implies that IDC is rolling out W8 tablets. Huh?
edit:
Also perplexing is the way the above implies that IDC is rolling out W8 tablets. Huh?I didn’t read it correctly the first time.@MDN:
Please check the iChart code, because somehow on FireFox13 it looks squashed vertically to a super wide object, what makes the graph basically unreadable.
Sorry, they were busy working on compatibility with Firefox 249, that they overlooked version 13.
“We don’t expect Windows-based tablets to necessarily take share from Apple and Android, but will grow the overall tablet market.”
So, the market share will grow to 105% or whatever?
As for the chart – same thing on Safari…
Really? “Android’s share will slip from 38.7% in 2011…” Again, really? This is like the Microsoft Zune. I NEVER SAW ANYONE WITH A ZUNE. EVER!
Has anyone seen a non-iPad at a graduation, restaurant, …? They are saying that 2 out of every 5 are Android tablets. Where? Are the people able to get an iPad there yet? When people are able to buy an iOS device, everything else is passed up. (Watch what is about to happen in China now. iPhones and iPads are coming!)
“38.7%” Really?!
Hey, two reasons you don’t see them.
1) people are ashamed of them and wish they had bought an iPad so they hide them when others are around. LOL
2) Samdung made such look alike copies that many are confused for iPads. While they do function and the case looks like an iPad, people use them in public hoping we will think they are using an iPad… LOL
OK, friday humor in place here. be nice. 🙂