Welcome to the start of the Apple stock doldrums

“Apple (AAPL) has plummeted, going lower in 16 of the last 19 trading sessions,” Stephen Rosenman writes for Seeking Alpha. “Is it a correction to 2012’s earlier supercharged three-month-rally? Or fear that competitors and governments will together take the Cupertino, Calif., company on with lawsuits and new products and keep it down? Or does the move foretell the end of Apple’s innovative juices?”

“Could it be the flash crash of March – forever to be called ‘Rosenman’s bear sign’ – presaged April and May’s dire stock action? (Hey, the evil technical I coined worked. Whether phony-baloney, it sounded the alarm, didn’t it? “Rosenman’s bear” correctly signaled the market’s nervousness),” Rosenman writes. “No, no, no, and no.”

Rosenman writes, “The reason for the totally-miserable-horrible stock action: It’s simply the start of the Apple doldrums… Happens just about every year. Each and every frigging year. Happened in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Scary, upsetting and quite costly to the uninformed. In fact, it often starts right about now. April and May, the perfect Apple doldrums start. Yes, the miserable doldrums, when Apple’s stock price goes down or does nothing for endless months.”

Read more in the full article here.


  1. If you can show a pattern over the past 6 years, then people take this into heart and not worry. Every opportunity to drive down Apple stock means someone get’s to make money. Isn’t that motivating?

    1. Not a big deal, just a technicality. F

      rom Slashgear: “Forstall reportedly cashed and 64,151 shares of Apple stock at prices from $601-$605 per share. The selloff netted the man $38.7 million in one day. Shedding the stock doesn’t mean Forstall is ready to leave Apple, his 120,000 share retention bonus given in 2008 vested last month. He apparently reduced that by 55,849 shares to pay taxes. He also still has 2988 shares of stock.

      Forstall is looking at additional major stock options for staying with the company according to Fortune. He will get 100,000 restricted stock units when they vest in 2014. He also has another 150,000 restricted stock units given in 2011 that will best in 2013 and 2016 if he stays with Apple. Fortune also reports that the man already makes $700,000 a year. It certainly pays to be a big wig at Apple.”

    2. That’s BS. Forrestall is selling since his stock is worth so much already, not as a statement that Apple’s going down in flames or won’t continue their upward climb with updated and new precedent setting products. Anyone who convinces themselves otherwise is a fool who will soon be parted with his hastily cashed out money.

      1. Correct … Scott has some really big real estate plans and he needs some bucks …. Good for him and family to enjoy the fruits of his labor …..

        And Scott has plenty more stock heading his way for staying around – He is not saying anything selling his shares, except he wants the money to spend elsewhere ….

    3. It’s a simple explanation: his stock options would otherwise EXPIRE. Forrestal was obligated to liquidate the grant of options or lose them.

      Next stupid knee-jerk reaction…

  2. I wrote a post recently about this topic showing Apple’s ups and downs over the last couple years, with the conclusion that I would not be surprised if Apple’s shares traded sideways until about August. Typical.

    1. Since the company is changing to some degree, why do the up and down patterns remain the same. After all, there are no Steve Jobs health issues, no succession worries, a nice new dividend, cash reserve is larger than ever, Apple’s market cap is the largest by far. Shouldn’t those things make a difference from previous years? Everything seems to be running very smoothly for Apple, so it seems nothing will ever stop Apple’s seemingly irrational volatility. I’m just always thinking that with Apple’s higher cashflow from various products, things would smooth out.

      Apple isn’t the typical company since it thrives in a poor economy, so why does it go down if the economy has little effect on Apple’s quarterly revenue. Sorry, but it just doesn’t make any sense to me.

  3. Any executive that comes into this level of wealth would be advised to diversify their wealth. It is just the wise thing to do for the long term benifit of their family. I wouldn’t take this as a sign that Forstall believes Apple is going to stumble.

    As to the doldrums not only has Apple gone thru this before, but anytime a stock’s price runs up as fast as Apple’s has it is reasonable. Even as a stock gets cheaper, based on P/E not price, it can still spook investors. The price will as they say “consolidate” then take off again.

      1. “Value” is clearly subjective on the stock market. How that translates into the stock price is also remarkably subjective. But in this case I am going by the annual income as profit by the company. Obviously, Apple continues to only climb upward in sales and income. That this is not directly translated into the stock price is a matter of what I call human inner world thinking, whereby human perception can be entirely at odds with outer reality. Inner perception is of course entirely meaningless when confronted by the outer reality. Inevitably, we all ride the waves of the outer reality no matter what we think about it at any time.

        IOW: Apple’s actual value wins, no matter what human BS manipulates the subjective AAPL stock price.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.