“Apple will lose its overwhelming dominance of the consumer tablet space within the next three years, according to a prediction from analyst Jack Gold,” Nicholas Kolakowski reports for eWeek.
“His research note also predicts that Microsoft will own roughly 10 percent of the consumer tablet market by that 2014-2015 timeframe, beating out Research In Motion’s QNX operating system with less than 10 percent but losing out to iOS (30 percent) and Android (50 percent),” Kolakowski reports. “‘By 2014-15 we expect Android tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad,’ Gold wrote in a Nov. 1 research note accompanying the data.”
Kolakowski reports, “He sees RIM’s QNX market as primarily ‘security conscious industries and governments (while also being bedded in automotive and other products.’ A small percentage of the space will be held by “primarily Linux-derived and/or HTML5-centric OSes” such as Tizen and Chrome.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
“I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed.” – Jack Gold, January 11, 2007
Hum…. No its Nov 2… not Apr 1…
I dont think RIm will be here by then and MS is doing their best to not play the game.
I second your Hum. Apple’s iOS devices will be beat out by a company that will not survive that long and requires their RIMM Blackberry for their tablet to go online. And Microsoft OS based tablet. Has anyone seen one? Are they hiding behind the Zune mp3 players that I also have never seen anywhere. EVER!
When will they get the THOUSANDS of missing apps?
When will they have their own Siri?
Is this clueless idiot related to Steven Ballmer or someone else working at Microsoft? Idiot.
1. Gold is a RIM and Windows sock-puppet. Look back at when the iPhone first launched for his disparaging comments – he was wrong then and wrong now.
Jack Gold = Rob Enderle
Android is an iOS ripoff! I hope Apple sues their A$$es off during the next 3 years!
That, and these ANALysts have been predicting the end of the iPods dominance of the music player market, every year for the LAST DECADE.
Of course, people stopped listening to them in recent years, but after a decade of this kind of nonsense its amazing people still buy it. (mostly integrity challenged androids, of course.)
Sounds like Jack Gold doesn’t know Jack Shit.
+1.
loling =)
lol, but he sure is intimate buddies with Jack Ass.
And Jack Off.
+2 Boom!
+2
He just uses this tried and true formula
“By (three years in the future) we expect so & so’s tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad”
repeat every six months
one of these centuries it might even come true…
I love his confident “Will Lose” instead of “Might Lose” like he knows something we don’t, but instead knows only, as you said, Jack Shit. There oughta be a law against definitive declarative statements one way or the other based on maybe’s, what if’s and “I thinks”.
Another so-called analyst about to make a total ass of himself. These guys must think that no one remembers their idiotic predictions – well, meet iCal, bitch!
Also, “Apple basically established the market for portable music players”? Really…..
Right, because Sony never made the Walkman before the iPod was created.
I mean, do these people even think before hitting the send button?
It would be more accurate to say that Apple (Steve Jobs, the iPod) re-invented or revolutionized the way we listen to and purchase music. But the portable music player market has been around even before the Walkman. I mean, hand-held and pocket am-fm radios, and later cassette players and finally CDs all had a pretty good market before the iPod. But iPod was DEFINITELY a game changer.
And before Walkman there was Muntz with the 8 tracks in the car.
Muntz developed the 4 track tape; Lear developed 8 track.
And there were never transistor radios or portable reel-to-reel decks either before Apple, nor portable record players, nor for that matter wind-up Victrolas. Jeez.
I actually saw someone walking by me on the street yesterday with a Sony Discman clutched in his hand! I haven’t seen one of those in years. Too big to fit in a pocket. To sensitive to movement to go there anyway. Yikes!
That wasn’t a Discman, that was an Android phone with a 5″ screen. And BLN was drooling all over himself.
Best MDN take ever.
+1. Classic.
Yes. that take made my not-so-good day pretty awesome. I’m now smiling. 🙂
I loved it too!
they have lost it also…
…the freakin’ mind
this analysts act like those doctors with the electric reanimation machine. They’re DEAD, there is no need to reanimate.
Now Steve Jobs is no longer there to stop Apple ;-), it should introduce flash on its tablets as soon as possible.
Uh, yeah…and a 3.5″ floppy drive. 😉
Say what? This has got to be just a troll with an off topic idiotic axe to grind.
Didja happen to notice the 😉 in both posts?
And a USB port. And a HDMI port. Because that wireless stuff is a flash in the pan.
You’re going to confuse the poor kid… You forgot to wink!!! LMAO!!!!
If his prediction is wrong, would he still be Gold?
Stupid is as stupid does. I’d be surprised if Android owned 5% of the market in 2015 what with the totally crappy tablets that are out there in the market. 9.7″ rules brah. Go iPad.
Not just the size, but the aspect ratio on the iPad is perfect. It feels natural in any orientation. I remember Steve Jobs’ description at the iPad launch keynote. He said there is no up no down, no wrong way to hold it.
Widescreen tablets feel awkward when held in portrait orientation. Sure, if you are watching a movie, you have the letterbox black bars, but the iPad is not just for watching movies. This also proves that the iPad was not intended for media consumption only, and that Android makers have lost the plot on what a tablet can really do if done right.
You put your finger on it brah. Screen aspect ratio on the iPad is damn near perfect. My iPad rocks no matter how I orient it.
I’ll bet that was one of the most important things Jobs and Ive decided during the design process. It proves the brilliance and care that they had. They didn’t just say, “Let’s make something people will want to watch movies on.” The said, “when the movie’s over, then what are we gonna want to do with the thing? What aspect will work best for every use?”
Where have I heard that?
iPad losing to others is like Toyota losing to the Yugo or Trabant.
Buying crap is a long term identifier of the losers in society.
Another jerk off analyst who is probably in bed with Microsoft. Great prediction back in 2007, Jack! Guess what? You’re a MORON. Big companies like IBM are embracing the iPad as the mobile platform of choice, so get a clue.
Can you say “SIRI for iPad 3”? I knew you could.
LOL. Do these people actually get paid to write this crap?
Android tablet adoption rate is abysmal, which is why none of them even report SALES figures. I’m guessing they think that the Kindle Fire is going to change that, and it WILL be successful, but it isn’t even an iPad competitor in actuality. Of course, I don’t expect them to understand.
It’s amazing how little these people understand the industry they write about.
“Jack Gold is the founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, an analyst firm specializing in mobility issues, in Northborough, Mass. He can be reached at jack.gold@jgoldassociates.com.”
In other words, Jack is the only “analyst” in his home office. Sort of like a poor man’s Enderle or Thurrott.
Talking to himself again, huh?… I’ll bet he’s even his own wife.
Microsoft proposed and discarded the Courier project in public. If Apple proposes a project and then decides not to pursue it, no one outside that part of Apple ever hears about it. Because Apple keeps its future product plans under wraps, its competitors are always competing with iProduct 1 just as Apple comes out with iProduct 2. Siri is a case in point: no one saw it coming.
Apple’s competitors haven’t learned that you can’t outrun someone by following him. As long as they copy Apple, they lose. They can only “win” by coming up with their own ideas.
Apple doesn’t make sales a goal, because it is a side-effect of customer satisfaction. They also don’t make world domination a goal, because it doesn’t matter. Profit margin does.
So what if Microsoft takes 25% of the iPad market? Apple will still have happier customers, more repeat business, a better profit margin, and tons of money; plus some immunity from accusations of monopolistic practices.
So far as the analyst is concerned. No one makes a name for himself by writing a thesis that Shakespeare wrote Shakespeare’s plays. You can make a name for yourself if you argue cogently that Teddy Roosevelt wrote them. The analyst is in an environment where sensationalism gives him visibility. Three years from now, when he’s back down to earth, he’ll have an audience that will listen to him.
From all available evidence, Microsoft had no intention of making the Courier. Redmond must have forgotten that it wasn’t 2006 and that people were no longer fooled by their pathetic attempt to freeze the iPad market with a vaporware video.
I’d argue that the only hope people have for competing with Apple is to copy them just enough not to get nuked in court. WebOS and the Playbook are examples of the non-existent capacities the competition has for creating a new product.
Sounds like someone’s been huffing Gartner’s tailpipe. Any analyst that slaps the word “prediction” on a technology guess 3 years out is laughable.
This guy has no idea what is going on …. There is no such thing as a ” tablet ” market…. There is an iPad market… In 3 years there will not be a tablet market either because NO ONE will buy anything else because to do so will limit you to using a machine that is outside what the rest of the world is using …Siri will make that abundantly clear when it is added as iPad’s primary input method and Apple releases the API that integrates Siri into the other 500,000 apps…. This will take 1 to 1.5 years at most…. Then the next 1.5 to 2 years will be the painfully death throes of Android, ms windows 8 or 9 or whatever and the rest that do not, will not, and cannot have AI as completely functional and integrated as Siri….
Can anybody tell me if any of those ANALyst predicted that the iPad will dominate the market in 2011 and 2011? or that the iPod will rule all markets form that many years so far? or that the iPhone will be this successful? Any body?
This is clearly an “Anti Apple” or “Apple Haters” campaign and they SHOULD really be shame of their blows.
Analyst: Someone who knows how to type and has access to a computer with an internet connection.
Oh my, is this guy another “Newbie” or is his head just buried in the sand.
ANYONE who has watched Apple’s performance for more that a year or so KNOWS they LEAD, the rest of the pack follows, and while the rest are huffing and puffing to try to catch up, Apple sends either a major upgrade or another new product out the door… The the ‘Catch-Up’ Game begins all over again…
The ONLY way Apple looses their current share of the market is if they DO NOTHING… And that ain’t happening!!
I remember an analyst predicting Xoom will sell over 13 million units this year or roughly 3 m units per quarter (that’s how they predict iPad will lose eventually). Moto just announced they shipped 100,000 Xooms last quarter … (sometimes analysts can be a bit off…. )
🙂
It was just a rounding error.
No, it was just a rounding error.
“‘By 2014-15 we expect Android tablets to acquire a majority share of the consumer market as the number of vendors and variety of models overwhelm the iPad,”. Ya but android models and vendors overwhelm the iPhone too, but it is number one!!
Not that it matters. You only need your market share to be large enough to keep you relevant to developers. Profit is what matters.
It’s inevitable that Android will increase its numbers just through weight of numbers overwhelming the public and suckering them into making bad choices. You just need a small number of people to stupidly buy any of the thousands of variations there will be and it begins to add up. As customers though they’re largely unimportant, your’re not going to make any money of them either at time of purchase or through purchasing apps etc, so the “competition” are almost welcome to them.
So like think about this for a second . . . you buy your shiny new SamyMicroBerrry Tablet and then you sit down to edit a . . . create a . . . compose a . . . never mind there is no iMovie, Pages, Numbers, Keynote, or Garage Band for you do use on it. Back to the store you go to exchange it for an iPad. Unless of course you are one of those 8 or so “I HATE APPLE PRODUCTS BECAUSE THEY ARE EXPENSIVE AND NOT OPEN AND . . . WELL I JUST HATE THEM” people. Then I guess you keep it and use it to watch movies. Yeah . . . like all of a sudden all of Apples competitors will start developing GREAT software . . . please change your name to Jack Pyrite.
There is one comment on Gold’s article – the quote MDN put above. (Added to Gold’s by RampantUnicorn.)