UBS‘s Maynard Um offers “a rather surprising scenario for iPhone units this quarter to be quite a bit higher than currently expected if Apple’s roll-out of international phone carriers were to proceed,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s. “And that could add another $3.09 to his current $9.47 per share estimate for EPS:”
In CY3Q the US/Int’l iPhone split was roughly 27.5% US & 72.5% Int’l. For calendar Q4, assuming total US units of ~11.7mn (AT&T 6mn, Verizon 4.5mn, & Sprint 1.2m) and based on our 28m forecast, the implied split would be 42%/58% US/Int’l. While the timing of the 70 (of 105) country launches could have some impact on sales ahead of the launch, the split, and hence, our estimates look conservative. A similar 27.5%/72.5% split from this qtr would imply ~42.5m units in CY4Q or upside of 14.5m iPhones.
Ray reports, “Um maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $510 price target.”
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MacDailyNews Take: Shh, shh, shh! You’re disrupting the AAPL sale, Maynard!