Microsoft: Windows Phone may grab over 20% share of smartphone market over next 24-36 months

55 Comments

“Microsoft Corp. said its Windows Phone operating system may capture more than 20 percent of the smartphone market over the next two to three years with the help of hardware manufacturers and increased marketing efforts,” Cornelius Rahn and Ragnhild Kjetland report for Bloomberg.

“Forecasts by researchers Gartner and IDC, which expects a market share of about 20 percent in 2015, are conservative, said Achim Berg, head of Windows Phone marketing, in Berlin today,” Rahn and Kjetland report.

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Rahn and Kjetland report, “Microsoft, the world’s largest software maker, is betting that Windows Phone will retake market share lost to Apple Inc.’s iPhone and handsets running Google Inc.’s Android software… In April, Gartner forecast that the Android operating system will have the largest smartphone market share during the next four years, rising from 23 percent in 2010 to 49 percent in 2015. Apple’s iOS is predicted to grow from 16 percent to 17 percent, while Microsoft’s share will go from 4.2 percent in 2010 to 19.5 percent in 2015. IDC in June predicted that Microsoft may hold a 20.3 percent market share in 2015.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Depends on how Android fares in court and the juries are still out. If smartphone assemblers find Android is suddenly too costly to load into their devices, then they will turn to alternatives like Microsoft’s Windows Phone. Time, as always, will tell.

 

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Punchbowl” for the heads up.]

55 Comments

      1. No they didn’t say they will grow their own share by 20%, they said they “may capture 20% of the smartphone market.” Big difference, however one can hardly over-stress the “may” part of that statement, as in: I may be able to flap my arms and fly to the moon.
        Or maybe not.

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        1. Yeah, I know what they said, but was looking for a more reasonable goal they could shoot for, giving them an out when they fail.

          I was going with the old “I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant” routine.

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        3. Egads! What is this need to sell product at a loss?

          HP has just destroyed the tablet market & now Samsung is destroying the smartphone market?

          We truly are living in bizarro land.

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  2. HA!!!!! Microshaft spewing marketing lies again around an earnings announcement. what complete crap…. Vaporware = Vaporware = VAPORWARE….

    Microshaft’s got NOTHING……………

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  5. Microsoft has no equal when it comes to opining about what “might” happen with their products in the future. In other news, the TouchPad might overtake the iPad in sales by the end of 2011. Microsoft might solve all windows security flaws by October. Dell might overtake Apple as the worlds largest technology company by Christmas. Might is such a fun word.

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  7. Android will only succeed long term if:

    1. Android stops obsoleting last year’s models with new releases (Apple seems to support for 3-4 years).

    2. Android coalesces into one basic consistent format even with different vendors. Otherwise it is like the 6 remotes on your coffee table that are all different (opportunity).

    Since both 1 & 2 are not likely to happen, I don’t think Android will get to 50%, unless they virtually give the phones away.

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  8. ROTFLMAO

    Yesterday my university posted August (back to school month) mobile devices registration numbers on campus Wi-Fi.

    iOS took 78%. Android registered about 15%. Blackberry 3%. Windows Mobile at 1% is BEHIND Symbian’s 2%, and MATCHES 1% of already DEAD webOS!

    ROTFLMAO!

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  12. Check out this analysis of how well WP7 is likely to do.

    Under the best case scenario, the Communities Dominate Brands blog shows in the entry The Ten Million Dollar Man – Stephen Elop Costs Nokia 10 Million Dollars More of Lost Profit – Every Day He Remains as CEO of Nokia, “..if we take the ABSOLUTE best launch of a new OS ever, growing from zero to 11 million units per quarter – that of Google’s Android – and we add the best mass-market growth of any single smartphone maker ever from 11 million to more – that of Apple’s iPhone – and use both of those growth rates – Nokia and Microsoft will end up by 2013 with merely 8% of the global handset market.”

    Complete analysis here:

    We won’t even bring up the side issues of carriers dislike for MS worldwide and carriers dislike of Nokia in the USA, as well as many other problems. Just on pure realistic numbers, Gartner and IDC are blowing smoke up someone’s behind, I’ll let you figure out who.

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    1. What does that have to do with anything? Or, as a liberal, are you feeling so threatened by the the latest poll, employment, and jobs numbers that you’re just spewing attacks on any Republican you can think of? Grow up.

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        1. And you don’t have to be a Republican/Conservative to see what a libtard/socialist/Jimmy-Carter-wannabe the current occupant of the White House is. Wake up and smell the unemployment numbers and national debt figures, macromancer. Your “brilliant” TelePromTer chief executive is driving this country into an economic, spiritual, and social malaise it may never recover from. Punchline my ass.

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        1. Um, while you’re at it, libtard . . . why not learn the difference between “too” and “to.” Or is that too difficult for one educated in the golden fields of liberalism known as public education?

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        3. When fascism comes to America it will be disguised as a government that promises that it’s just trying to help you, while its leaders use class and race warfare to fragment the society.
          DOH!!!… too late.

          Why don’t you stop throwing around incendiary terms, that you obviously don’t understand.

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        4. sparky… you need to get a clue, fascism has America firmly in it’s grasp, it has been parading around in a flag, holding prayer vigils for rain and touting mission accomplished over GOP baked news networks owned by corrupt corporations… but I am sure a bright Spark like you would have seen that, oh I forgot you have your head up Rush’s ass.

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    2. I’m a Obama supporter (yeah yeah) but I’m hoping my Republican friends can find someone better than Perry for the nomination. Jon Huntsman is a decent guy. I could even roll with Ron Paul. Just not Perry please.

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  14. “Microsoft Corp. said its Windows Phone operating system may capture more than 20 percent of the smartphone market over the next two to three years […]”

    Sure, and monkeys may fly out of my butt. But I think that’s the more likely of these two scenarios.

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    1. “Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt” was my instinctive response to the headline (and I reserve that for the most egregious use of “may” and “might” – perhaps once a year)

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  16. There’s a point in White Christmas where General Waverly predicts a foot of snow overnight. Then he says, “If there’s one thing I learned in the Army, it’s always be optimistic – especially when you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

    Looks like Darth Fester has been watching old movies for motivation.

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  17. I used to use a Windows Mobile 6.5 phone made by HP before switching over to the iPhone. I also used a variety of other phones like Motorola and for kicks tried out a Symbian phone from Nokia. So you could say that I have quite a lot of old tech phone experience. Quite unequivocally I can safely say that the worst experience I have ever had with a mobile device, phone, PDA, music player or otherwise is with the WM6 device. To say that it sucked would be to misuse the word suck. It was worse than suck. What possibly can be worse than suck. Try whale shit lying at the bottom of the ocean. WM6 was whale shit of gigantic proportions.

    If you have ever tried to navigate a mobile device designed to be held in the hand using a stylus to poke at a start button at the top which then dropped down a menu list of items that filled the left hand vertical of the screen you will have an inkling of what I’m talking about. Microsoft has no idea how to design an interface a consumer can understand because they try to bring Windows metaphor to everything they do. I don’t believe people who have been burnt using MS’s whale shit mobile OS will so easily forgive them when there are viable alternatives in the market in the shape of iOS and Android, to name two dominant platforms.

    MS carries too much negative baggage from WM6 and now deservingly they are the laughing stock of mobile OSes. It would be impossible to gain a 20% share of the mobile market unless Apple or Google missteps in a big way. Even if RIM imploded and vanished altogether from this world, RIM refugees will not be buying WP7 phones – they will most likely buy an HTC running Android with a physical keyboard. MS is a day late and a dollar short to the smartphone game and will remain lying at the bottom of the ocean mingling with whale shit for a long time into the foreseeable future. Nokia will not be their savior. Instead, Elop and MS will contrive to lead Nokia to an early grave.

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  19. “When and if fascism comes to America it will not be labeled ‘made in Germany’; it will not be marked with a swastika; it will not even be called fascism; it will be called, of course, ‘Americanism’” – An uncredited New York Times reporter covering Halford E. Luccock in an article published September 12, 1938.

    Too late, Fascism is here and flourishing!!!!

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  22. – (many) apple haters buy android so WP7 growth will mostly be the expense of android, rim etc.
    iPhone has very high retention rate of users.

    – if WP7 gets more popular with OEMs due to Android issues (lawsuits, moto purchase by google etc) their profits will go even thinner as they spend more making BOTH Android and WP7 phones and supporting them. A more fragmented rival host is better for Apple (see iPod) rather than a single big enemy (see Windows PC), example thinner profits means cost cutting hardware and bad customer support.

    – i still have doubts the Lords of Windows Desktop and Office will fully support WP7 (see the collapse of Courier, kin, Win Mo, Danger, Zune Phone etc) — they are already want Win 8 DESKTOP for tablets instead of WP7. Windows desktop is the big money earner for Msft (billions vs the few hundred million for Win Mo) and they will never let Windows Mobile guys usurp them.

    – analysts are usually wrong about apple rivals chances: see Xoom, Kin, HP tablet, Palm Pre etc….

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  23. It’s a very real that Microstupid can gain that markethare. Look at that POS XCRAP. Billions lost year after year after year. A normal company would have killed of their POS. Not Microscash. They were able to blow away billions upon billion without blinking an eye to beat Sony. They can easily do it with their new POS MANGO! As long as people keep supporting that monopoly, Microshite will keep on winning and leading the market.

    Reply

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