“With a new iPhone expected in October, Apple is poised to reap record sales of the device in its December quarter — far beyond some of Wall Street’s more aggressive estimates,” John Paczkowski reports for AllThingsD. “How far?”
“BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk, whose official estimate calls for Apple to sell 21.5 million in the fourth quarter of this year, argues it could end up selling 30 million — 10 million of them in the U.S. alone,” Paczkowski reports. “‘Since the iPhone 4 has been launched we estimate that AT&T and Verizon have represented 30 percent of Apple’s unit volume,’ Piecyk wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. ‘If the US continues to represent 30 percent of Apple’s iPhone sales, it would imply a global iPhone demand for as many as 30 million iPhones in calendar Q4…'”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Edward Weber” for the heads up.]
It will depend on manufacturing abilities. Last Christmas quarter Apple was able to sell “only” 16 million iPhones — because Foxconn could not produce more.
So, you missed the articles about the million new robots that Foxconn is installing to up the production.
Start thinking bigger now!
you can start thinking bigger now, but the MDN article focuses on 2011’s fourth quarter while the Foxconn robots won’t arrive for three more years.
That number I think is unattainable. When is the iPhone 5 launching? September? October? Unless they’ve built up sufficient stocks then demand is likely to overwhelm supply. Apple is launching too late in the year for manufacturing capacity to catch up to demand. They’d be lucky to sell 15 million iPhones.
Are you party to inside knowledge regarding exactly when Apple started production?
Pegatron is reportedly manufacturing 10 million for the launch. In combination with Foxconn, 30+ million through Christmas might be possible.
Again, WSJ, trying to mitigate the rise of apple pps. Notice how they have not carried macquaries estimate of 27 million this Q and 40 million in the December Q.
Apple now has 114K points of sales. Averaging out 4 units sold per store, would mean potentially 41 million per Q. This is without china telecom, china mobile, docomo, kdd, sprint, tmobile-USA.
I’m playin around with your math here… 114,000 outlets, times 4 phones per outlet, I get 456,000 sales. Why didn’t I get 41 million like you did?
Federico meant **per day**.
More math playin around shows: 41 million iphones/ 114K outlets is 360. if they have 90 days to sell: 360/90 = 4 per day.
i checked the cc transcript. I was wrong. They have 115K points of sales.
There are 91 days in a Q.
It should be easy as long as manufacturing and assembly can keep up with demand. Hopefully, we won’t see any Antennagate repeats. I guess all three China deals will be complete by that time, so I don’t see much of a problem with demand for 30 million iPhones.
I’m only concerned with supply. Supplying 8 to 10 million iPhones a month doesn’t seem to be such a small task as any small glitches can cause major time delay problems. Apple may have simplified the manufacturing process with the iPhone to take less assembly time. Apple may have done away with the back glass and replaced it with something else. I’d heard they’re using some new process for the touch displays, so that may take less time also. We really don’t know the problem points of assembly that Apple and Foxconn may have overcome.
Its futile to speculate about what Apple can and cannot do to meet iPhone demand.
I agree that It will depend on manufacturing abilities. If they are able to get them made fast enough and in customer hands then it will certainly garner record sales. Only two things will hold sales back; production issues or a flawed product. After antenna-gate I do not expect any flaws, but production issues are always a wild- card.
Analysts should use the following formula:
A = number of iPhone retailers
B = number of Apple stores
C = number of carriers
D = number of out of contract consumers
E = number of early upgrade customers
F = state of economy
G = seasonal fluctuation
H = competitive offerings
I = significance of upgraded spec
J = timing of release
K = marketing budget
L = health of Steve Jobs
X = production capacity
Number of units sold = X
Actually analysts should use this formula.
F = number of fake iPhone stories
U = number of lies Apple stores
C = number of bullshit carriers
K = number of the Roy Slaven & HG Nelson TV shows (100’s) (X)
I = number of new customers to Apple
N = significance of competition (0)
G = seasonal fluctuation of chocolate coffee pots
A = competitive offerings by opposition (0)
N = significance of upgraded spec reiterated (0)
A = competitive offerings redux (0)
L = marketing budget of Tide laundry detergent
Y = creativity of lies told by Eric Schitt
T = production capacity of Lithgow Tools
S = timing of Harry Potter film release
X = cxhttp://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=The+Dream%3A+Roy+and+HG&aq=f
X = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_and_HG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dream_with_Roy_and_HG
X = the twenty-fourth letter in the basic modern Latin alphabet.