According to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media, Android tablet sales will be neck and neck with the iPad in 2015 with 87 million and 90 million unit sales, respectively. Although Apple has dominated this space since the launch of the iPad in 2010, this is set to change with the introduction of low-cost Android tablets, the wider launch of Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) and the possibility of other major brands such as Amazon launching tablets on the OS.
“We have seen a huge explosion in the tablet market in recent years, driven primarily by the iPad, and we estimate that the market will go from strength to strength, growing from under 20 million tablets sold in 2010, to over 230 million in 2015,” comments David McQueen, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, in the press release. “We expect Apple to retain its leading market share until 2015 but only just. From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016.”
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Apple currently has 75% of the market but this will drop to just 39% in 2015. Meanwhile Android will see a huge increase in its market share, as the devices and the ecosystem around the platform improve. By 2015, it will have 38% market share, putting it on a par with the iPad.
“Three factors have proven to be decisive in the success and failure of tablets: brand; access to distribution channels; and product quality, including the application environment offered. At the moment, the iPad leads in all three areas but Apple’s edge is likely to wane as the quality of the competing products and application environments improves,” adds McQueen.
It is anticipated that, once Windows 8.0 is launched, there will be a variety of tablets available in the market based on Intel and ARM architecture. These are most likely to include a Nokia device as well as a number from the traditional PC vendors.
RIM’s PlayBook is expected to show only modest growth early on following its launch as some mobile operators have shown to be reticent to carry the device as they are struggling with the business model owing to it initially being Wi-Fi only. However, volumes will be buoyed by the inclusion of Android apps on the device and the introduction of cellular connectivity (HSPA+ and LTE versions are expected before end-2011).
“Most mobile operators are expected to focus on supporting iOS and Android tablets in line with demand, and their current indifferent support for Windows, BlackBerry OS (QnX), webOS and MeeGo tablets will prove decisive in shaping consumers’ purchasing decisions in the short term. However, it is those devices that can also dominate the consumer-electronics sector and online retail channels as well as nurture their current partnerships with the mobile operators that will win out,” concludes McQueen.
Source: Informa UK Ltd.
MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed.
And they came to this conclusion based on what?
Sounds like an iCal moment.
Wishful thinking.
Nobody would pay attention if they said “Apples the best. All of you other guys are screwed.”
It might be based on wishful thinking that Apple will somehow stagnate for a few years, that the puck will come to a stop for a few product cycles.
Nonsense!!!!
Man, it really echoes when these guys talk out of their ass! lol.
Four years is too far off. Guess. Worthless.
Four years is a lifetime when it comes to mobile devices or computer tech in general. It’s certainly possible that as Apple scales up production and continues to offer fairly priced, high-quality tablets, they could have an even bigger lead. The future is quite unpredictable. However, with Apple’s reserve cash and retail distribution channel, Apple has the most leverage of all those rival companies, so this prediction is really just being based on speculation.
By 2015 Apple will be onto the next big thing and everyone will start chasing them again. I call it the circle of life….
you’re right. I was about to chime in and say this was hallway believable – but I hadn’t accounted for where apple would be in 2015.
In one sense it is believable – it took a droid 4 years to make a decent competitor to the iPhone 1.
And yet Apple COMPLETELY dominates profitability. Market share means nothing without taking into account the actual money being made.
Of course it does. Without market share, Apple wouldn’t have a third of the devs it has now, and fewer people would be buying iPhones, which would make it a niche device…
If Android market share were to approach iPad share, Android would fall into the Netbook paradigm: cheap crap with nothing going for but a low price; low margins and razor thin profitability. Apple would still maintain 80-90% of tablet profits. But if Apple is able to continue succeeding in chipping away at Android via patent suits, it is doubtful that Android tablets have much of a future.
Everybody’s Waiting for the Next BIG Thing …… And ….. Apple will have it ……
Gotta laugh when HoneyScum and Windoze 8 comes out …. Yea what about when they come out, dummie, what ya thinkin’ Apple will have, stupid retard …..
End of Message
Microsoft dominated in global desktop OS market share because they were allowed to enter into illegal contracts with OEMs that financially penalized the OEMs who offered alternate OSs.
Android gained a foothold in US smartphone market share because iPhone was only available on AT&T.
Android on tablets has none of these advantages.
This is the iPod all over again ,you can build and count all you want but you need to sell them.they (droids)tablets are not selling ,it doesn’t matter how cheap .crap is crap !stick to phones ,oh wait you copied them as well and are going to get spanked.
Yes. The zune will overtake the iPod in 5 years.
Was it 5 years on the Zune ….. Could of sworn I read 3 ….. maybe 4 years at the most ….
Oh, silly me, that was how long they would manufacture, my error!
“Apple currently has 75% of the market..”
Says who? Based on what? The number of units shipped? Just because Android tablets are sitting in a warehouse gathering dust doesn’t mean they’re in the market. The true measurement should be web traffic and iPad accounts for more than 95% of web traffic among tablets in the US. That’s a true measurement of what’s in the wild.
Looking at web traffic is a crappy way to measure tablet (iPad & rip-odd devices) numbers. This will significantly underestimate the Android numbers. People love the iPad and use them extensively. The Android tablets? Seriously … who wants to use one of them online?
That’s the ONLY use for Android tablets.
Not true …. Only use – simply not true …..
They make great picture frames devices ….. And you can even get your emails, if you like ….. Come on give credit where credit is due ….
I hear they make great serving trays, if your model doesn’t have too many buttons. In fact this is the only use that doesn’t suffer because of the terrible battery life.
I can probably agree… Apple will most likely come out with something better than the tablet and people will stop using tablets and go with the new iProduct.. there for android tablets will soar….
most likely that wont happen though… people think Apple is a fad that will wash away.. they keep forgetting that they are the company that keeps changing the way people think… and the others just copy.. and don’t do a good job of it.
I believe it.
But by then Apple would`ve released an iPad 5 or 6.
A study came out within the last week and it showed that Android phone users are looking to buy the iPad rather than the Android tablets.
Look four years back: No iPad, no iPhone, no iOS. Nobody could possibly have predicted today’s market.
Look four years forward: Nobody can predict the next disruption. A forecast with exact decimals (38% market share?) is hilarious.
Well said. Just what I was thinking.
As usual Baloney. Hogwash.
today one of the payola crew came out with the reasonwhy apple shares fell today. Non-adoption by salarymen in Japan.
They will stoop so low. the next weeks will be all about the ipad-killer fro Amazon.
Hell, there’s a 50-50 chance the Android OS will only be found in forgotten old phones thrown in a drawer somewhere in 2015.
This “analysis” is based on one thing only – that Android tablets will be cheaper than iPads.
WRONG! Motorola, RIM, HP, and Samsung have proven they can’t beat Apple’s prices, certainly not make a profit. That won’t change in the future, either. The only way Android tablets can beat iPads on price is to be smaller, use a crappier screen, and really cheap out on the components. Even that doesn’t save them much.
This is a very good point. The other manufacturer’s seem to be aiming for the same price point as Apple, if not higher. Given Apple’s volume and dominance of the key supplies, it will be difficult to undercut Apple’s prices and still make a quality tablet. Apple seems to believe that this is one area where price is one of the keys to success and are motivated to aggressively price the iPad (but still keep great margins!). They could make something cheaper and crappy (instead of the same price and crappy) in the future, but a key point in the analysis was that people want quality. Unlike phones, where it can be stripped down and still be serviceable as a phone with a fancier screen, the tablet has few areas that can be skimped on without compromising the quality of the essence of the device.
Android will improve, but fragmentation and security will still be problems, though probably less than for phones.
As most have pointed out, in four years the market will have changed significantly. Certainly, Apple has been setting the stage for the distinction between the iPad and desktop/laptops to be blurred – iOS-inspired feel to Lion, Mac App store, with software prices being lower (I’m thinking Aperture here), and the ease of integrating everything digital via iCloud. Although I won’t claim to know exactly where this is going, by 2015 Apple will have advanced this paradigm significantly. That “walled garden” will set them apart from the other devices that offer you a life with one OS on your phone, one on your tablet, and one on your desktop/laptop. The technically proficient will be able to make such a hodgepodge work seamlessly, I’m sure. The other 90% of the tablet consumers will find Apple products more appealing because they are “easy to use”.
It will be cool to imagine what Apple will be doing in 2015.
Of course it will and by then Apple will have it own search engine and Apple maps. The iPad will be phasing out and the Apple virtual iOS device will replace it.
Connected to the mind of the user with movies and Internet stream straight to the optical cortex. Why need a device when you wear it like a watch and see it through your eyes in full 3D 360 degrees in space. Wow, Apple throws another paradigm shifting device for Goggle and Microsoft to innovate from!
Horse manure if I ever smelled it!!!!
Android won’t exist in its current form in 2015. It will be a fragmented pile of hurt as each tablet supplier tries to work around Apple and Oracle IP.
All ready wrong.
RIM is shutting down its WiFi Playbook as a failed device no one wants.
They are going to concentrate on a version with cellular in it.
Informa or Missed-Informa?!
So this guy has to write something about computing and phone companies because that is his job. So he used his schooled abilites to write in English to say: In the post mouse era it will be Apple and somebody else. Duh. The interesting question is, who will the other player be? Microsoft needs to charge for it, but, Google is giving it away free. Who knows what will happen. Not this guy.
What does he think it will take. “dominate the consumer-electronics sector and online retail channels as well as nurture their current partnerships with the mobile operators.” Hmm. Sounds like a Microsoft plan to me. Do evil? Who cares. Just win.
Hmm. They talk about improvements in the competitor products – new versions of Android, but fail to note the upgrade path for the iPad. So, if Apple continues to produce the same device for three years, and the other guys upgrade continuously (to the point where they actually copy the iPad convincingly), they might almost catch up. Unspoken bad assumptions are still bad assumptions.
They also fail to note that since the Android UI is substantially a ripoff of Apple’s patented intellectual property, it may not even exist in 2015.
What’s with the year 2015 for all these Apple-is-doomed soothsayers? There seems to be a consensus that 2015 is the year when their dreams will come true and Apple will no longer be the undisputed leader.
2015 is also easy to throw out because, hey, if 2011 predictions don’t happen four years down the road, who is going to remember?
The basis for this prediction appears to be the lower price these competitors will supposedly charge. That assumes as a fact that Apple will stand still in terms of pricing and quality.
It also ignores basic human logic. If something worth $500 is way inferior to something worth $700, people with common sense will willingly pay the $200 extra to get the better product. The only scenario where price may be a big factor is if the competing tablets are priced at $200 or so, and are able to provide just slightly inferior quality.
Anyway, they’re talking about a market Apple doesn’t even compete in. Apple is not in the tablet market – Apple is in the iPad market.
“What’s with the year 2015 for all these Apple-is-doomed soothsayers?”
It’s in the Mayan calendar.
I thought the Myan calendar ended in 2012???
Ahh, you’re thinking of the Julian Mayan calendar. The Gregorian Mayan calendar doesn’t end ’til 2015. 😉
Now that’s funny!!!!
An awesome device is one thing; an awesome device in Apple’s eco-system is awesomeness
What the dorks at Informa failed to analyze is that people likely would first buy a piece of junk tablet then be disappointed and wind up buying an iPad from the whole experience.
A broken iPad is still better than a new competitor’s tablet. Ok, I’m just throwing that in.
“2015! This war will be over by 2015!”
Said in your best imitation of the squadron commander in Top Gun voice.