“An unusually dissenting report from Nomura analysts Thursday estimated that the iPad would be eclipsed by its tablet rivals in three years,” Electronista reports.
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million, the researchers saw the lead narrowing substantially in 2012 and 2013, with the iPad finally losing an absolute majority in 2014 as 83 million non-Apple tablets trade hands to 78 million iPads,” Electronista reports. “The balance might be tipped by Microsoft. Although it would still remain the smallest category, Windows 8 tablets using ARM processors would swell from five million a year in its inaugural 2012 year to 20 million by 2014. ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now.”
Electronista reports, “Microsoft would be the ‘game changer’ that would break up the established order, Nomura said, although not until 2013. Android would be helped by this year’s Ice Cream Sandwich update.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Shit Sandwich is more like it.
And Analysts should factor in the potential results of legal actions that may actually be resolved within the time frames they provide.
Related articles:
Android phone settlers don’t go for Android tablets, they buy Apple iPads – July 8, 2011
Why Android tablets can’t compete with Apple’s revolutionary iPad – July 8, 2011
Nielsen: Apple iPhone drives U.S. smartphone growth as Android stagnates – June 30, 2011
IDC: Apple becomes Australia’s number one mobile brand as Nokia plummets – June 27, 2011
40% of European smartphone buyers plan to next buy an Apple iPhone – June 24, 2011
Apple iPhone the top-selling smartphone at both Verizon and AT&T – June 22, 2011
Analyst: Android to continue to lose smartphone share – June 20, 2011
Multiple Android tablet peddlers give up, focus on 4- to 5 -inch smartphones – June 17, 2011
Analyst: Apple iPhone 4 still bestseller ‘by far’ at AT&T and Verizon; still outsells Android in U.S. – June 13, 2011
Nielsen finds decline in Android’s U.S. smartphone share – May 31, 2011
NPD: Apple iPhone 4 for Verizon best-selling mobile phone in U.S.; causes Android to lose share for first time since Q209 – April 28, 2011
Android infringes. Big time (as the U.S.’s greatest Vice President in history would say).
“greatest” as in “greatest waste of space”?
Obviously, that would be Plugs Biden.
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year”
Wow! I wasn’t even aware Apple was still shipping the iPad. I thought it was all iPad 2 now.
So, yes, Android tablets will eclipse iPad sales in a few years. By then, we’ll all be using iPad 5s.
They meant the mounds of non-iPad tablets at the dump; those will eclipse Apple by being so tall that they block the sun.
Ha Ha Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
Especially if Apple does not have a full USB port.
Exactly what support?
especially there’s no RS232 on iPad!
Yah Jean Brunet is spot on…
I was going to buy an iPad till I realized Apple has not seen fit to include a centronics printer port.
How are we supposed to plug our legacy parallel printers in to it?
Ha- see I can outthink apples “supposedly genius” product designers, they need to add a centronics port and a floppy drive (and RS232 and 422 ports) , then you might be able to compete with the fully featured windows tablets that were shipping 5-10 years ago!
Apple: shipped = sold
The rest: shipped > sold by a wide margin
Why are analysts in love with the idea that android will eventually take over? Recently there was a story of android phone owners having iPads. People don’t want tablets they want iPads!
Because Apple doesn’t bribe analysts to write flattering articles about them.
Wave enough money under Nomura’s nose and they’ll claim people will dump tablets for literal Etch-a-Sketches.
I almost spewed my coffee when I read the title. I agree with MDN’s take- not a single competitor has gotten a viable alternative off the ground yet. I’m still not convinced Amazon is gonna do any better either, although it appears they might not fail as bad as the others…
So amusing these analysts are. The numbers make it sound like they have any idea.
But I do observe the day that Android will “inevitably” eclipse the iPad actually seems to be getting pushed farther back. I mean wasn’t it supposed to be this year or 2012?
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million…”
Eh? I wasn’t aware of anybody else selling anywhere near 1million tablets, so where do the other 20 million come from?
Based on that false premise, insanity is sure to follow.
Shipping, not sold.
Even so, 20 million Android tabs? Really? Tums doesn’t ship that many!
Exactly. Where does 20 million come from? That is ridiculously over inflated. Just another fictional amount with no real data.
EXACTLY! This analysis is based upon this 20M to begin with in order to get to his 83M prediction in 2014. If the 20M turns out to be 5M, his prediction is going to off by alot.
There are a flood of them in asia, this is from indonesia http://www.bhinneka.com/category/tablet.aspx they are all android. You can see a whole different brands (or non branded) tablets in china, india and korea. there might be 100 brands of them. Imagine if each brand can sell 500.000, which is possible (because indonesia has 250 million population, china has billions of population and also India)
When you see fatuous inflated hype like this:
“…versus everyone else’s 20 million”
You know there’s lots of laughter in store! 😆
20 million can be 20 suppliers shipping 1 million each. It’s like the early iPod days.
Someone forgetting iOS5, iCloud and eventual iPad3? Can’t count these factors out!
…so send us your money because we know how to invest it for you!
I predict that within five years, there will be more land than ocean.
I think in five years, I will be five years older …..
20 Million where the heck did that number come from …. So they are saying for every 3.5 iPad 2 sold 2.0 Android tablets are being sold today …. huh – I just saw the Zoom on Woot discounted $200 off retail …. Maybe they are counting the first time it sold, then returned, then sold to another company who is trying to sell it again – I get where they come up with the 20 million now …
Kinda like a new car gets sold it is a used car and then sold again and again …. Hey we sold 12 zillion Yugo – Or was that one Yugo 12 million times ….
Boy if I had a dollar every time I hear this crap…..
Based on an alien invasion…..
And they’re throwing Windows 8 tablets in as the difference maker! Microsoft hasn’t sold 5 million tablets total in its lifetime, let alone 20 million.
It’s really quite amazing how these analysts just pull numbers out of their *ss, never any justification to them at all.
What in the world would make anyone think that Android tablets, based on products actually released to this point, pose any challenge whatsoever to the iPad?
These analysts must not understand history. Just look how great Windows Phone 7 did. The iPad is even more entrenched than the iPhone, so I ask what school of reasoning do these idiots come from that they can conclude with any competency that a Windows tablet will be able to compete agains the iPad? I’ll chalk up Nomura’s lunacy to the Japanese nuclear disaster. Better lay off that radioactive sake.
What a load of rubbish… These so called analyst use simple calculation focusing on ration of shipped. It assumes APPLE will not innovate and everything remains as is.
What a bunch of idiots. I actually have a friend who says the same trash about iphone. These idiots only measure qty and compete on price with each other.
There will always be a low-end of the market and I am delighted that someone will serve their needs but please stop comparing your left over with a top notch innovative and users-loving-it magical iPad. My Little sister and my elderly parents love the iPad.
They are idiots and so are those who pay these idiots to waste digital ink.
Mehran
The more likely scenario is that (by three years from now) Apple’s tablet competition will not be able to “afford” to compete with Apple directly. Apple keeps making record-breaking profit while the competition releases “me too” products that don’t make enough profit to justify their development cost and initial production run.
They will focus on the “niche” areas that Apple intentionally ignores. For example, 5 to 7-inch mini tablets. Tablets with slide-out keyboards. Tablets that are too large/heavy to hold and use at the same time. Laptops with touch screens.
And to speculate that “Microsoft would be the game changer” is (at best) premature. Wasn’t Windows Phone 7 supposed to be a “game changer” too, and what has it done? Windows 7 was supposed to turn the tide away from Mac, but Apple keeps breaking Mac sales records.
I think the writer forgot to factor in the fact that Apple generally buys up the entire chip supply ahead of time. Where do the other companies get the additional chips from? Idiot! Electronista is just blowing text out of there ass!
Update – in 2014 hell will freeze over ……..
The Win 8 tablets will compete with net books, not iPad.
The Android tablets will compete with each other, not iPad.
iPad will have the usual problem, making enough hardware for the demand.
Nomura analysts will quietly bury this prediction in less than a year.
Like I said, it was simply a two word review which read, “Shit Sandwich.” Thanks for the Spinal Tap reference!
You guys are forgetting a major part of this analysis. If you put Apple in a vacuum with no further innovation and the rest of the players are able to innovate, they may catch up in 3 years. But, without Apple showing the way, the word innovate is used very loosely. Have we seen one single solitary innovation in the tablet market that was not led by Apple? I want to hedge my bet to 4 years….
MDN iCaled this I presume.
What school do these jackasses attend to get their “ANAL-YST” degree? Oh right, there isn’t one…just hang a shingle and you’re good to go. OK, I declare myself an analyst.
Pay me money and I’ll make a prediction that favors you in a good light.
Let’s throw some preliminary numbers in the hat. As of now the iPad will sell approximately 8-9 million tablets a quarter. That’s this year. That should account for the bulk of the 35 million number.
For Android tablets to sell they will have to significantly undercut the price of the iPad to compensate for the lack of applications which currently sits in the ratio of 100:1, 100,000 iPad specific apps in the iTunes App Store vs. 1,000 (if that) tablet apps in the Android Market Place. For Android to sell in significant numbers the development cycle of apps will have to pick up steam in a big way. I don’t see that happening so that will act as a natural brake on Android tablet growth.
The ramification of Android devices undercutting the price of the iPad is that profitability will be eroded. When that happens then the slide to cheaper components will take place so you’ll get shoddily made plastic encrusted crap appearing in greater numbers.
And the last thing that the analyst did not consider is the distribution channel. Android phones have the carriers pushing them. Android tablets are stacked mile high in Best Buy but what’s lacking is a retail sales consultant who can show you how it works. This is where Apple’s strength lies – an unrivalled distribution network in the shape of the Apple retail store.
Given these inherent weaknesses – comparative lack of distribution muscle, lack of apps, and inability to give much ground on price without fatally compromising the quality of the product – you get a trifecta of fail that will cripple widespread adoption of the Android tablet.
1! Just look at the next article. Amazon skimping on tablet to undercut Apple.
Good “analysis.” Much better than by most of the folks who are called “analysts.”