A myriad of factors contributed to the first contraction in the worldwide PC market since the end of the recent recession. Global PC shipments declined 3.2% during the first quarter of 2011 (1Q11) compared to the same time last year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Although the forecast for the quarter was already conservative – IDC expected a mere 1.5% growth in shipments – a steady but still cautious business mentality and waning consumer enthusiasm persisted. A spike in fuel and commodity prices and the disruptions in Japan added to the mix, further dampening a market struggling to maintain momentum.
The PC market showed clear indications that after more than a year of impressive purchases, frugality tinged with a shift of focus will be the norm for the time being. Despite promising economic sentiments, mature regions appear to be more focused on necessary replacements as a relative dearth of compelling reasons were present to buy secondary PCs. Emerging markets fared better due to lower saturation rates, but also slowed somewhat with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) slowing to a 5.6% growth and China continuing to cool off after a momentous 2010.
“While the consequences of events in the Middle East and Japan remain unclear, these will surely be factors that will influence short term market performance for 2011,” said Jay Chou, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, in the press release. “Long-term success will depend on hardware manufacturers being able to articulate a message that is beyond simple hardware specifications. ‘Good-enough computing’ has become a firm reality, exemplified first by Mini Notebooks and now Media Tablets. Macroeconomic forces can explain some of the ebb and flow of the PC business, but the real question PC vendors have to think hard about is how to enable a compelling user experience that can justify spending on the added horsepower.”
“The U.S. and worldwide PC market continues to work through a difficult period that we expect will continue into next quarter, but will start to improve in the second half of the year,” said Bob O’Donnell, program vice president, Clients and Displays. “Slower than expected commercial growth in the first quarter failed to offset the ongoing challenges in the consumer market. While it’s tempting to blame the decline completely on the growth of media tablets, we believe other factors, including extended PC lifetimes and the lack of compelling new PC experiences, played equally significant roles.”
Regional Outlook
United States – After strong gains for most of 2010, the market has now seen yet another inflection point in the rubber-band effect of the demand cycle that has become prevalent over the past two years. Demand fell back as buyers shifted focus and shipments declined over 10% compared to last year.
Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) – PC shipments in the EMEA region contracted further than expected in the first quarter, in part the result of continued softness in the consumer space. The business segment also remained cautious, which, combined with sustained high inventory levels in the retail and distribution channel, constrained most vendors’ “sell in” levels this quarter. Growth was expected to remain constrained after a difficult year-on-year comparison and the growth achieved in 1Q10, but demand failed to sustain stronger levels to stimulate higher “sales in” levels in March. The additional impact of the recall of Sandy Bridge systems already in the channel only affected small volumes, but had an adverse impact in terms of cancelled and delayed orders and contributed to some additional disruption.
Japan was slightly below forecast with a year-over-year decline in shipments of 15.9%. Despite an already conservative forecast that reflected a relative lack of public sector projects, the region struggled in part due to supply constraints and the effect of the earthquake which affected much of March.
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) – Shipments increased only 5.6% in 1Q11, similar to the trend in the fourth quarter of 2010. Despite the Lunar Year season, China failed to reach double-digit growth. However, other major markets helped to pick up some of the slack.
Vendor Outlook
HP declined 2.8% compared to the first quarter of 2010. The vendor managed to outperform most markets, taking advantage of surging demand in Latin America, but struggled in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan).
Dell experienced disappointing sales in its key markets, including lackluster consumer demand in the U.S. and tepid business volume, but the decline was offset by significant strides in emerging markets, including major wins in PRC. The vendor slightly outperformed the market with volume declining at 1.8%.
Acer was affected by continued turbulence in EMEA, its biggest market. Moreover, the vendor is stilling feeling the pullback in the Mini Notebook and Consumer space, while its upcoming tablets have yet to fill in the void. In the U.S., Acer also ceded its place to a surging Apple in the US.
Lenovo significantly outperformed the market with shipments posting 16.3% growth. The vendor continued its dominance in Asia/Pacific while maintaining a disciplined channel expansion in other markets. Both its Desktop and Portable PCs grew in double digits compared to the same quarter in 2010.
Toshiba finished 1Q11 with 3.8% growth. Its unwavering focus on solid designs in the Portable PC space and a relative lack of exposure in the Mini Notebook segment helped it to keep on a steadier course. Solid gains were reported in all markets except EMEA.
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, First Quarter 2011 (Preliminary) (Units Shipments are in thousands)
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 13, 2011
Top 5 Vendors, United States PC Shipments, First Quarter 2011 (Preliminary) (Units Shipments are in thousands)
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 13, 2011
Table Notes:
Some IDC estimates prior to financial earnings reports.
Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold.
PCs include Desktops, Portables, Mini Notebooks and do not include handhelds, x86 Servers and Media Tablets (i.e. iPad and Android-based Tablets). Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in over 60 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.
Source: IDC Corporate USA
MacDailyNews Note: These are preliminary numbers. Apple is due to report results on Wednesday, April 20, 2011.
Geez Louise, Acer’s US share just collapsed! 2.3M a year ago, to 1.3M this year. That’s alot of netbooks that didn’t get sold.
And, who is buying all those Toshiba laptops? I haven’t seen anyone with one.
I have a Toshibia laptop.
Core i3 2.53Ghz/15″ screen/500GB HD/4GB Ram/$479.
I got an iPhone, an iPad, and my Toshibia Laptop for less than the cost of an entry level MBP ($1199). I love Macs, but I’m very satisfied with my setup.
The only way you could be very satisfied would be to turn that Toshiba into a Hackintosh. Windows 7, I really feel sorry for you.
stuff’s ugly but if you ain’t got the scratch, you ain’t got the scratch. not everyone bought Apple shares at $15!
Given it doesn’t have the polish of OSX but I haven’t had a single issue with it. iTunes and MS Office work beautifully. I use my iPad for everything else.
For crying out loud! The guy said he is happy with his setup. Let him be happy with it. It does what he wants.
When people make asinine statements I will jump on them too. But this guy is very reasonable. There is no need for a [expletive deleted] religious jihad here!
That’s like comparing a Kia Optima to a BMW M3. 🙂
I take it that iPad deliveries are not included in these stats?
So iPad goes up PCs drop. Is that a factor in these stats MDN.
OF COURSE iPads aren’t included. In order to preserve any sense of Apple not really mattering, the iPad has been classified as a “toy” — that is, “Media Tablet” — if it’s counted at all.
That’s a statistic soon to be included in these stats (within a year). Significant market share moving in that direction will make current comparisons irrelevant.
“So iPad goes up PCs drop.”
Never a miscommunication?
Apple will have to sell a extra million to get into the top 5 worldwide. However when it does the top 4 will really start to get worried. My guess is 3.8M Macs worldwide this quarter.
The worst thing for the top 5 is that Apple have taken all the high margin business. All they are left with is the scraps and can only make money with large volume sales. Apple are beginning to cut that volume with competitive entry level Macs and irresistible iPad quality and pricing.
Apple would feature more prominently if only actual sales were counted, rather than sales + channel inventory. Since Apple only release official sales figures, they are at a disadvantage.
It’s a bit deceptive to include stuff sitting in warehouses, storerooms and on shelves for all the other manufacturers.
To be fair, you’re wrong. Apple’s official figures include any increase or decrease to channel inventory; however, they always state what the change to channel inventory is during their conference calls, so actual sell-thru can be calculated.
Now – what if tablets were considered computers be IDC? Then where would Apple be in share?
😀
I don’t think Apple cares too much of such statistics anymore. For one thing, iPads sales are not being counted, even though iPad is a key reason why Acer (and others) took a big hit in “netbook” sales. And for another, even if you only count Macs as Apple’s computers, Apple continues to make most of the available PROFIT in the “PC” market, while selling a relatively smaller percentage of “units.”
So who really cares about the specifics of these numbers? Apple is selling enough “units” to grow a healthy platform, and probably making more profit than the rest of the industry combined. Everyone else is mostly selling to existing Windows users, hence no growth. Apple is obviously selling to existing Mac users, but selling even more to Windows “switchers.” And there are still a whole lot of Windows users left to switch. That’s the REAL story.
Yes. If you were looking at a pizza or service company that only dominated the market in New Jersey and still had the rest of the USA or world to grow into, the almost unlimited growth would be all that Wall Street could see and talk about!
These numbers are extremely misleading. The Total US PC market is down and Apple’s is up. Take out Apple from the other OS box makers and they are down more than the -10.7%!
Example: Last year box maker A made 60 and B made 40. This year box maker A made 35 and B made 54. So, the crap turd box makers made only 89 boxes this year much less than last year’s 100!!! Who cares if A stole from B or B from A. They are fighting for scraps falling from Apple’s feast!
APPLE WILL TAKE WHAT THEY WANT FROM THE REST OF THE MARKET WHEN THEY WANT TO.
What if they counted those other hand held PC’s that Apple calls the iPad, iPhone and iPod touch? Or even the AppleTV or the MANY THOUSAND PC’s THEY PUT IN THE BILLION DOLLAR SERVER FARM? Anyone counting those? Do you think Steve Jobs put Dell or HP servers in there?
Okay, I ran the numbers without Apple’s growth, and instead of being down 10.7% the PC market in the US was down 12.2%.