Gartner: Microsoft Windows Phone market share to surpass Apple’s iOS in 2015

Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012 (see Table 1).

Sales of open OS devices will account for 26 percent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market. (An open OS makes a software developer kit (SDK) available to developers, who can use native application programming interfaces (APIs) to write applications. The OS can be supported by a sole vendor or multiple vendors. It can be, but does not have to be, open source. Examples are BlackBerry OS, iOS, Symbian, Android, Windows Phone, Linux, Limo Foundation, WebOS and bada.)

“By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner, in the press release.

“As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers”, Ms. Cozza said. “Android’s position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

Gartner Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS
Source: Gartner (April 2011)

Gartner predicts that Apple’s iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. This reflects Gartner’s underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions. iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.

Research In Motion’s share over the forecast period will decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM’s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012. Analysts said this transition makes sense because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and — given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS — it can enable more competitive smartphone products.

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.

Gartner analysts said new device types will widen ecosystems. “The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.

“Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Ms. Milanesi said. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don’t own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”

Gartner’s detailed forecast is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at

Source: Gartner, Inc.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed. We will certainly revisit these (and IDC’s) numbers annually, if not more often.

Related article:
IDC: By 2015, both Android and Windows Phone will beat Apple’s iOS in smartphone market share – March 29, 2011


  1. Part of me would like to burn 20min reading this report but just from what is in the article, what’s being said makes absolutely no sense.

    Ms. Milanesi would do her clients justice by detailing why the iOS/iPad/iPhone are so popular with the only profitable app market on the planet slowly infiltrating the desktop (possibly even Windows) and exactly how RIM, Microsoft, and Google are going to compete with everything Apple has to offer now.

    I could go on and on…SDK, fragmentation, malware, code-signing, backup/syncing I mean c’mon!

  2. I had forgotten just how badly Gartner GAS stank.

    I’m saving this article so I can have a jolly good laugh at these dipshites at the start of 2012 when their baloney has gone rancid. :mrgreen:

    1. BTW, for Gartner Gas newbies:

      Gartner have consistently had it in for Apple. The fact that Macs are back over 10% market share in the USA has given them a major case of hemorrhoids. The fact that Apple rule the portable device market has them all overdosing on blood pressure medications.

      Apparently someone there finally had an aneurism and spewed forth the above rubbish before being taken away to the hospital. 😉

  3. If Apple introduces a less expensive no contract iPhone this year it could really further disrupt the market. They would then have another version of a product that they would have trouble meeting demand for.

    It would rock the industry!

  4. I would be curious to know if Windows Phone will even exist in 2015. Windows Plays for Sure no longer exists, Kin no longer exists. Zune is on its way out. If Windows phone doesn’t get rapid adoption, they could well pull the plug and stick some other PR-driven, copy-cat phone OS out there. What will smartphones look like in 2015? In a tech-driven, latest is greatest market, Microsoft will just be rolling out their copy of somebody else’s work. The smartphone market belongs to innovators, Microsoft does not innovate.

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