Gartner: Microsoft Windows Phone market share to surpass Apple’s iOS in 2015

Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012 (see Table 1).

Sales of open OS devices will account for 26 percent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market. (An open OS makes a software developer kit (SDK) available to developers, who can use native application programming interfaces (APIs) to write applications. The OS can be supported by a sole vendor or multiple vendors. It can be, but does not have to be, open source. Examples are BlackBerry OS, iOS, Symbian, Android, Windows Phone, Linux, Limo Foundation, WebOS and bada.)

“By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner, in the press release.

“As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers”, Ms. Cozza said. “Android’s position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

Gartner Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS
Source: Gartner (April 2011)

Gartner predicts that Apple’s iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. This reflects Gartner’s underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions. iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.

Research In Motion’s share over the forecast period will decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM’s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012. Analysts said this transition makes sense because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and — given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS — it can enable more competitive smartphone products.

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.

Gartner analysts said new device types will widen ecosystems. “The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.

“Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Ms. Milanesi said. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don’t own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”

Gartner’s detailed forecast is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at www.gartner.com/resId=1619615.

Source: Gartner, Inc.

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed. We will certainly revisit these (and IDC’s) numbers annually, if not more often.

Related article:
IDC: By 2015, both Android and Windows Phone will beat Apple’s iOS in smartphone market share – March 29, 2011

59 Comments

        1. … included a hint as to what he is clueless about: that ZT is anything but a Colbert-style comic. Dude … ya gotta understand: ZT makes the most outrageous statements with tongue firmly in cheek.
          There are many reasons why the article just MIGHT be “slanted” … one being that Gartner is a long-term “employee” of Microsoft. That’s right people – including MSFT – actually PAY them to produce their “reports”. 😉

        2. Clueless? You give yourself way too much credit to be able to throw that around. Hughie, when you emerge from your Mommy’s basement may I suggest you pull your head out of your ass and realize what a little, pathetic creature you are. Maybe then you will see that your ability to brand others as “clueless” is about absurd as your IQ is low.

      1. @DDT:

        Zune Tang is MDN’s paper villain. He is an intentional parody of a typical PC zealot. He has been created to amuse us, both by reading his ridiculous “Baghdad Bob” style platform demagoguery, and by drawing out MDN newbies who take him seriously. Now that you’re in on the joke, may I be the first to say “Welcome to the social.”

        1. A parody?

          Hmmm.. that makes a whole lot more sense.

          Guess I’ve been had. There are so many parodies out there in the PC forums- can’t tell them from the jokes. Toxic, too- like this “study.”

        2. I like his style of getting responses. He’s having some fun is all I’ve noticed. I’ve never noticed anything hateful. I do the same thing on a lot of the Apple stock forums and it gets them hot, hot, hot. In Korea, they call it pulling the sleeping lion’s whiskers which I find rather amusing (in theory).

  1. Once again I ask what kind of drugs are these people on. I only say this because you have been on drugs on have your lips that close Steve Ballmers ass. It Ballmer was to sudden stop their be a terrible accident.
    Seriously how do these people come with these number and the more important question who is naive enough to buy this crap. I have yet to see a Window OS phone from any one that I know and I know a lot of people. The only way they will be # 1 by 2015 is if they give a free Window OS phone with every Windows PC sold and still that might not happen. This has to be late April fools Joke.

  2. instead of Nokia dragging WinMo up as Gartner assumes, WinMo is going to drag Nokia down. the big winner over the next several years will be “Other” as OEM’s in China and India switch to their own in-house OS’s – probably unauthorized “forks” of Android like OPhone – and take most of Nokia’s market share away. only question is which of the Asian OEM’s will gobble up what is left of Nokia one day.

  3. People, people — this is one of the great things about this country — you can get paid good money to do this kind of stuff! It is called free market! Back in the days of the old west, these kind of people sold elixir from the back of wagons. Nothing changes, just the product. And they even go to church on Sunday!

  4. Anyone predicting something 4 years out in smartphones and cell phones is pulling the wool over their clients eyes.

    A single great product from any company could upset Windows and another GREAT product from Apple could doom several phone makers to abandonment of their smart phones or bankruptcy.

  5. 2015? they couldn’t predict 1 year ahead

    some predicted 1 to 2 million iPads in 2010 and apple sold 15 million, means they are like a 1000% off and that’s just a ONE year forecast. 2015? gimme a break….

    they had based their 1 million iPad estimates on the HISTORY of Win tablet sales , NOW they are basing their WP7 sales on the HISTORY of Nokia sales

    Unfortunately a whole bunch of grey haired money managers (mutual, hedge and pension) clinging on to their Blackberries and Palm Pilots and crunching their numbers on a Dell PC actually BELIEVE that crap and Aapl stock stays down while Amazon etc get P.E ratios of 70… sheesh.

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