Strategy Analytics Director: A certainty Apple will be under 50% of global tablet market in 2013

Apple Online Store“Google Inc.’s Android software boosted its share of tablet computers almost 10-fold in the fourth quarter, narrowing the lead of Apple Inc.’s iPad, market researcher Strategy Analytics said,” Pavel Alpeyev and Hugo Miller report for Bloomberg.

“Android devices captured 22 percent of global tablet shipments in the three months to Dec. 31, up from 2.3 percent in the preceding quarter, the Boston-based researcher said in a statement today,” Alpeyev and Miller report. “The iPad accounted for 75 percent of shipments in the period, down from about 95 percent, it said.”

Alpeyev and Miller report, “A wider range of cheaper devices with Google features like YouTube and Google Maps will probably erode the iPad’s market dominance, said Neil Mawston, director at Strategy Analytics. Its share of the global tablet market will probably drop to 67 percent this quarter, he said. ‘Apple’s volumes will continue to go up, but market share will inevitably go down,’ Mawston said in an interview… ‘If you were to ask me in two years time, will Apple have less than 50 percent of the global tablet market, I think that’s a certainty,’ Mawston said.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The only certainty we see is that Strategy Analytics doesn’t know how to and/or what to measure. In Strategy Analytics’ press release for their big report, Mawston himself states, “The Samsung Galaxy Tab was the main driver of Android’s success.” However Samsung VP Lee Young-hee admitted that the Galaxy Tab’s “sell-in was quite aggressive and this first quarterly result was quite, you know, fourth-quarter unit [figure] was around two million. Then, in terms of sell-out, we also believe it was quite small.”

In other words, Samsung stuffed the channel and Strategy Analytics is counting Galaxy Tabs that are sitting on retailers shelves the exact same way they are counting Apple iPads that are actually sold to end-users.

When you don’t know what you’re counting and/or what to count, it’s possible to come up with anything. We’ve iCal’ed Mawston and we’ll check back on January 31, 2013, on that you can bet. We’ll see if Strategy Analytics cleans up their mess by then and can come up with figures that actually mean something. We’ll also see if their numbers match those from other firms and if Apple has less than 50 percent of the global tablet market on that date.

26 Comments

  1. It’s not about market share. Rather, it’s about providing a satisfactory user experience that people are willing to pay for.

    Apple has a history of innovation and satisfying customers. Apple also makes a profit. Those three ingredients (innovation, customer satisfaction, company profits) are pretty tough to beat.

  2. In related news sales of the Ford F-150 were easily trounced by sales of all the vehicles from Honda combined.

    I mean really? When was the last time you read that one particular phone or Mp3 player or tablet beat the iPhone or iPod or iPad in a one to one competition? Nope, it’s always the iPhone VS all Android phones combined. And now the iPad is getting the same treatment as.

    What’s next for Strategy Analytics? Boldly predicting that the top ranked UFC heavyweight will get his ass handed to him when it’s him VS all the rest of the heavyweights in his next title defense? Puhleese!!

  3. They still think of Apple not competing on price, and that everyone else will be cheaper.  However that is not the case.  The Galaxy Tab was the same price for a tablet half the size, very few apps, and no support from the OS maker.  Android will also be in a battle with HP and RIM for the Apple hater market this year. It will be a slug fest for the bottom. No one can tell who will be Apple’s top rival for 2012, let alone 2013.  

    The iPad has a strong start in the corporate world.  A lot of people will buy tablets like the one they use at work.  Just like what happened with Windows in the 90’s.  Android is not strong in that market: RIM is by phones and HP is by computers. It is a 4 way race; Apple has already done a lap while every one else is getting to the starting line.  

  4. Two years out the tablet market will be unrecognizable and Apple will have invented yet another completely different break-out product. To make these kinds of predictions 2 years out in this industry is very, very naive.

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