“Android devices captured 22 percent of global tablet shipments in the three months to Dec. 31, up from 2.3 percent in the preceding quarter, the Boston-based researcher said in a statement today,” Alpeyev and Miller report. “The iPad accounted for 75 percent of shipments in the period, down from about 95 percent, it said.”
Alpeyev and Miller report, “A wider range of cheaper devices with Google features like YouTube and Google Maps will probably erode the iPad’s market dominance, said Neil Mawston, director at Strategy Analytics. Its share of the global tablet market will probably drop to 67 percent this quarter, he said. ‘Apple’s volumes will continue to go up, but market share will inevitably go down,’ Mawston said in an interview… ‘If you were to ask me in two years time, will Apple have less than 50 percent of the global tablet market, I think that’s a certainty,’ Mawston said.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The only certainty we see is that Strategy Analytics doesn’t know how to and/or what to measure. In Strategy Analytics’ press release for their big report, Mawston himself states, “The Samsung Galaxy Tab was the main driver of Android’s success.” However Samsung VP Lee Young-hee admitted that the Galaxy Tab’s “sell-in was quite aggressive and this first quarterly result was quite, you know, fourth-quarter unit [figure] was around two million. Then, in terms of sell-out, we also believe it was quite small.”
In other words, Samsung stuffed the channel and Strategy Analytics is counting Galaxy Tabs that are sitting on retailers shelves the exact same way they are counting Apple iPads that are actually sold to end-users.
When you don’t know what you’re counting and/or what to count, it’s possible to come up with anything. We’ve iCal’ed Mawston and we’ll check back on January 31, 2013, on that you can bet. We’ll see if Strategy Analytics cleans up their mess by then and can come up with figures that actually mean something. We’ll also see if their numbers match those from other firms and if Apple has less than 50 percent of the global tablet market on that date.
No matter how they count the numbers, it’s more revealing that 22% was a “10-fold” increase from 2.3%. That 2.3% for Android is going to closer to reality in 2013 than over 50%.
These analysts should wait for a competing product that can actually compete with iPad, before making such predictions.
The only “certainty” is that Mawston is going outside his expertise to gain some publicity for himself and his beloved Google.
“A wider range of cheaper devices with Google features like YouTube and Google Maps will probably erode the iPad’s market dominance,” said Neil Mawston, director at Strategy Analytics.
Psst, Neil, don’t look now but my iPad also has “Google features like YouTube and Google Maps.”
Competitors Tablets are not here yet – at least not working well copies and it will probably take at least another 2 years before they get close so saying 2013 Apple will have 1/2 market share is kinda on the stupid side …. But then there are a lot of dummies out there …
90% of the world is run by 10% of the people – which is just about the number of Macs verses PCs …..
I run our Company and I use Mac – Others people have PCs – every last one of them ….. Hum, wonder if there is any correlation??????
On 1/31/13 will Strategy Analytics still exist?
Is this research sponsored by google?
If Apple can make 51% of the total profit off of just 4.2% of the market share on the iPhone, then so what if Apple is under 50% of the total market share for the iPad. If Apple is anywhere near 50% of the total market share for the iPad they will probably have 150% of the total profit in the bag. Math exaggerated to make a point.
Others need to worry. Apple is unstoppable.
If I was an Apple manager I would not be worried by this prediction. Let us say that in 2013 the Apple share in Tablet sales is 40% then that gives 60% to be taken by say three competitors. For example Android, Windows 7 and HP(Palm). For simplicity assume they each have a 20% share of the market. Apple would still be selling twice as many tablets and probably making even better profits. Apple should focus on staying one step ahead along with the bottom line and not worry about market share.
And how many analysts predicted the iPod’s market share would take a large drop as other companies entered the market?
Looking out over the internet, even the Fandroids are upset (meaning, not in denial) today about the new revelations about Tabs sold rather than shipped.
The only certainty here is that we will be able to look at our posts 2 years from now when MDN revisits this article after this asswipe has been proven wrong.
Woah!!! Freaky deaky, man!!!
Being able to predict the future will not make you a successful Strategy Analytics.
Knowing how to attract attention will.
Android tablets pose far more of a threat to manufacturers adopting them than they pose a threat to Apple.
Any manufacturer bringing an Android tablet to market will have to invest considerable a sum of money developing and launching the product. They will be faced by a massively successful incumbent ( iPad ) and countless alternatives offering their version of Android tablets. There will only be space for one or two alternatives to the iPad – if that. Any company making a many multi-million dollar investment needs to have a good chance of succeeding. With hundreds of tablets being announced recently, what is the likelihood that a given tablet is going to win ?
My guess is that almost all of the companies attempting to get a slice of the action will end up losing money and those that don’t make a loss will only make slim margins, just as they did with PCs and netbooks.
Apple have put together a very sophisticated operating system in a very attractive housing. They have thrown in speedy operation and long battery life and then by purchasing expensive components in advance and in massive quantities, are able to offer a product with a performance at the aspirational end of the market, but with a price tag that no truly equivalent product could hope to match and still make money on.
It seems to me that the most likely scenario will be that nobody will offer a true equivalent of the iPad. What we will see is companies selling cheap touch computers at drastically lower selling prices. They won’t be in any way comparable to iPads, but will offer a form of touch computing for those who will settle for less. Clearly nobody will make much money from the razor slim margins that will be available, but that’s the only option available to most manufacturers. The alternative is to stay out of the game, but few companies will be able to resist trying their luck …. and losing.
But now we know the numbers were fudged…
The 2 million android tablet was sold to vendors… but the actual number sold to end users was a fraction there-of…
So Meh!
But all the iPads will still be being used.
if apple makes the superior hardware software tablet in 2013 which they will because of their time market advantage they will have at least 70% of the market and almost all of the profits
this analyst is just sniffing the google crack which is strange because we all know google makes no money from android OS
It is possible for this prediction to be correct. The only way I can see it happening is for the entire market to expand enough so that a 50% position will encompass the expansion anticipated for the iPad. Of course, 50% for the iPad and less than 10% for #2 isn’t half bad. That’s one of the nice things about having a fragmented group of competitors … they get to share the smaller portion. They are not “Android”, but “Samsung” and “Dell”, and “HP”, and “Lenovo” and a few others – each with a handful of models, each seeking a niche of their own.
Did the writer skimp on his research, or was he being deliberately dishonest?
In the financial community of today, it is probably both…
“‘If you were to ask me in two years time, will Apple have less than 50 percent of the global tablet market, I think that’s a certainty,’ Mawston said.”
If this FUD were to come true, here’s a better question:
Q: What will be the BEST tablet in the global market in 2013?
A: The Apple iPad, obviously.
Conclusion: FreeTardiness sells. And Apple should care because WHY? Compete for the cheapest and lowest common denominator? Not Apple. So sorry.
http://taketotask.wordpress.com/
I’ve had enough of these analysts. It’s time time to take them to task…
It’s not about market share. Rather, it’s about providing a satisfactory user experience that people are willing to pay for.
Apple has a history of innovation and satisfying customers. Apple also makes a profit. Those three ingredients (innovation, customer satisfaction, company profits) are pretty tough to beat.
Of course, many people will need cheaper tablets… Yet, 50% is a loooooot of income for Apple! Far enough to stay far in front with R&D…
Maybe by volume of market share, but how about a measure that matters? Profits.
What percentage of profits will belong to Apple, it smart phones and laptops are anything to go by … 90% or more.
In related news sales of the Ford F-150 were easily trounced by sales of all the vehicles from Honda combined.
I mean really? When was the last time you read that one particular phone or Mp3 player or tablet beat the iPhone or iPod or iPad in a one to one competition? Nope, it’s always the iPhone VS all Android phones combined. And now the iPad is getting the same treatment as.
What’s next for Strategy Analytics? Boldly predicting that the top ranked UFC heavyweight will get his ass handed to him when it’s him VS all the rest of the heavyweights in his next title defense? Puhleese!!
They still think of Apple not competing on price, and that everyone else will be cheaper. However that is not the case. The Galaxy Tab was the same price for a tablet half the size, very few apps, and no support from the OS maker. Android will also be in a battle with HP and RIM for the Apple hater market this year. It will be a slug fest for the bottom. No one can tell who will be Apple’s top rival for 2012, let alone 2013.
The iPad has a strong start in the corporate world. A lot of people will buy tablets like the one they use at work. Just like what happened with Windows in the 90’s. Android is not strong in that market: RIM is by phones and HP is by computers. It is a 4 way race; Apple has already done a lap while every one else is getting to the starting line.