Strategy Analytics Director: A certainty Apple will be under 50% of global tablet market in 2013

Apple Online Store“Google Inc.’s Android software boosted its share of tablet computers almost 10-fold in the fourth quarter, narrowing the lead of Apple Inc.’s iPad, market researcher Strategy Analytics said,” Pavel Alpeyev and Hugo Miller report for Bloomberg.

“Android devices captured 22 percent of global tablet shipments in the three months to Dec. 31, up from 2.3 percent in the preceding quarter, the Boston-based researcher said in a statement today,” Alpeyev and Miller report. “The iPad accounted for 75 percent of shipments in the period, down from about 95 percent, it said.”

Alpeyev and Miller report, “A wider range of cheaper devices with Google features like YouTube and Google Maps will probably erode the iPad’s market dominance, said Neil Mawston, director at Strategy Analytics. Its share of the global tablet market will probably drop to 67 percent this quarter, he said. ‘Apple’s volumes will continue to go up, but market share will inevitably go down,’ Mawston said in an interview… ‘If you were to ask me in two years time, will Apple have less than 50 percent of the global tablet market, I think that’s a certainty,’ Mawston said.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The only certainty we see is that Strategy Analytics doesn’t know how to and/or what to measure. In Strategy Analytics’ press release for their big report, Mawston himself states, “The Samsung Galaxy Tab was the main driver of Android’s success.” However Samsung VP Lee Young-hee admitted that the Galaxy Tab’s “sell-in was quite aggressive and this first quarterly result was quite, you know, fourth-quarter unit [figure] was around two million. Then, in terms of sell-out, we also believe it was quite small.”

In other words, Samsung stuffed the channel and Strategy Analytics is counting Galaxy Tabs that are sitting on retailers shelves the exact same way they are counting Apple iPads that are actually sold to end-users.

When you don’t know what you’re counting and/or what to count, it’s possible to come up with anything. We’ve iCal’ed Mawston and we’ll check back on January 31, 2013, on that you can bet. We’ll see if Strategy Analytics cleans up their mess by then and can come up with figures that actually mean something. We’ll also see if their numbers match those from other firms and if Apple has less than 50 percent of the global tablet market on that date.

26 Comments

  1. No matter how they count the numbers, it’s more revealing that 22% was a “10-fold” increase from 2.3%. That 2.3% for Android is going to closer to reality in 2013 than over 50%.

    These analysts should wait for a competing product that can actually compete with iPad, before making such predictions.

  2. “A wider range of cheaper devices with Google features like YouTube and Google Maps will probably erode the iPad’s market dominance,” said Neil Mawston, director at Strategy Analytics.

    Psst, Neil, don’t look now but my iPad also has “Google features like YouTube and Google Maps.”

  3. Competitors Tablets are not here yet – at least not working well copies and it will probably take at least another 2 years before they get close so saying 2013 Apple will have 1/2 market share is kinda on the stupid side …. But then there are a lot of dummies out there …

    90% of the world is run by 10% of the people – which is just about the number of Macs verses PCs …..

    I run our Company and I use Mac – Others people have PCs – every last one of them ….. Hum, wonder if there is any correlation??????

  4. If Apple can make 51% of the total profit off of just 4.2% of the market share on the iPhone, then so what if Apple is under 50% of the total market share for the iPad. If Apple is anywhere near 50% of the total market share for the iPad they will probably have 150% of the total profit in the bag. Math exaggerated to make a point.

    Others need to worry. Apple is unstoppable.

  5. If I was an Apple manager I would not be worried by this prediction. Let us say that in 2013 the Apple share in Tablet sales is 40% then that gives 60% to be taken by say three competitors. For example Android, Windows 7 and HP(Palm). For simplicity assume they each have a 20% share of the market. Apple would still be selling twice as many tablets and probably making even better profits. Apple should focus on staying one step ahead along with the bottom line and not worry about market share.

  6. The only certainty here is that we will be able to look at our posts 2 years from now when MDN revisits this article after this asswipe has been proven wrong.

    Woah!!! Freaky deaky, man!!!

  7. Android tablets pose far more of a threat to manufacturers adopting them than they pose a threat to Apple.

    Any manufacturer bringing an Android tablet to market will have to invest considerable a sum of money developing and launching the product. They will be faced by a massively successful incumbent ( iPad ) and countless alternatives offering their version of Android tablets. There will only be space for one or two alternatives to the iPad – if that. Any company making a many multi-million dollar investment needs to have a good chance of succeeding. With hundreds of tablets being announced recently, what is the likelihood that a given tablet is going to win ?

    My guess is that almost all of the companies attempting to get a slice of the action will end up losing money and those that don’t make a loss will only make slim margins, just as they did with PCs and netbooks.

    Apple have put together a very sophisticated operating system in a very attractive housing. They have thrown in speedy operation and long battery life and then by purchasing expensive components in advance and in massive quantities, are able to offer a product with a performance at the aspirational end of the market, but with a price tag that no truly equivalent product could hope to match and still make money on.

    It seems to me that the most likely scenario will be that nobody will offer a true equivalent of the iPad. What we will see is companies selling cheap touch computers at drastically lower selling prices. They won’t be in any way comparable to iPads, but will offer a form of touch computing for those who will settle for less. Clearly nobody will make much money from the razor slim margins that will be available, but that’s the only option available to most manufacturers. The alternative is to stay out of the game, but few companies will be able to resist trying their luck …. and losing.

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