The details of a Verizon iPhone have finally been released, but what impact will this long expected move actually have on U.S. wireless service providers and their subscribers?
A new ChangeWave survey of 4,050 consumers, completed just days before the announcement, focused on the impact of a Verizon iPhone on the major U.S. Wireless Service Providers.
First, ChangeWave asked survey respondents how likely they were to change their wireless service provider in the next 90 days. A total of 10% said they plan on switching providers – 2-pts higher than a previous ChangeWave survey in September and the highest churn level of the past 18 months. Importantly, when we compared the churn rates for the top wireless providers, we found major differences.
Only 4% of Verizon’s customers plan to switch in the next 90 days. In comparison, 10% of Sprint/Nextel’s customers say they plan to switch, as do 15% of both T-Mobile’s and AT&T’s. As the following chart shows, AT&T’s churn rate is its worst ever in a ChangeWave survey:
What’s behind the weakening loyalty of AT&T customers? First, better than two-in-five likely switchers from AT&T cite Poor Reception/Coverage (42%) as their top reason for leaving, followed by Dropped Calls (27%).
Secondly, the weakening loyalty of AT&T wireless customers is directly attributable to the upcoming release of a Verizon iPhone. To gauge how many AT&T customers are going to switch to Verizon when they begin offering the iPhone, ChangeWave asked: For those who currently use AT&T as your wireless service provider, do you plan to switch to Verizon if-and-when they begin offering the iPhone (This survey was conducted in late December prior to the Verizon iPhone announcement):
A total of 16% of AT&T subscribers say they’ll switch to Verizon once it begins offering the iPhone. Another 23% say they don’t know if they’ll switch
[MDN Ed. – The fact that there is now really a Verizon iPhone vs. just the idea of it will affect the results. Now that the Verizon iPhone is reality, we expect these numbers to shift as the word spreads, as Verizon subscribers begin to see friends and family with new Verizon iPhones, and as Verizon marketing takes effect.]
Importantly, current Apple iPhone owners are the most likely group of all to switch, with more than one-in-four (26%) saying they’ll leave AT&T for Verizon.
Note that among all AT&T subscribers planning to switch, two-in-five (41%) say they’ll do it within the first three months of the iPhone’s release – and another 31% within the first year.
Additional report details include:
• Customer Satisfaction ratings for the major Wireless Service Providers
• Dropped Calls Rates – Past 90 Days by Wireless Provider
• Most Important Reasons for Switching – By Provider
• Wireless Providers Best Positioned to Gain from Customer Switching
• What AT&T Can Do to Retain At-Risk Customers Who Plan on Switching
• Tiered Data Plan Trends in the U.S.
• A Look at the Corporate Market: Wireless Service Provider Trends
Full report (US$ $1,500.00) here.
Source: ChangeWave Research
Verizon ain’t GSM, which is the reason I started (with Cellular One) with cell phones in the first place. Unlock a GSM iPhone and you have the world available. Not so with CDMA. And, I live in an area that has excellent AT&T reception. Sue me.
I, for one, will be looking forward to 25+% of current ATT iPhone users placing their burden on Verizon’s unprepared network. Let em leave, more for me!
It appears that the AT&T overstressed wireless network and overtaxed cell towers might get a break starting in about a month…
To switch from AT&T to Verizon means buying a ew CDMA phone. Worth the cost? Perhaps if you had planned to switch to iPhone5 some time this year.
Oh, yeah, I’m plunkin’ down 15 large for this one!
I put up with 2 years of zero reception at my house, and begged for Verizon to get the iPhone. Then one day, I looked at my phone and it had 4 bars! They must have installed a tower! So– I’m set for a while with AT&T.
I like being able to google something while making a call.
How many will switch back to AT&T when they realize how much they really did use voice and text at the same time!?
Does this sound like “big talk” to anyone else? “oh yeah, screw AT&T, I’m leaving” is easy and fun to say, a moment of consumer empowerment for the people being surveyed. But in reality? Sure, those with chronically bad service at home or work will go, but the big talkers will not take the trouble to switch…
Good god, why does MDN persist in pushing Changewave’s garbage?
MDN will bash Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley for downgrading Apple twice in one week back at the end of September in 2008, which started Apple’s big slide from $180 to under $100. But, they forget what caused Katy to do it. It was a Changewave survey that said Mac sales buying sentiment showed the biggest weakness in 2 and a half years. By November, the next Changewave survey showed that their September numbers were garbage; however, noone retracted their nonsense, not Changewave and not Katy.
Why is MDN pushing Changewave’s nonsense?
I’m sticking with ATT …… No good reason to leave. Mark my words… Verizon WILL have major problems with dropped service.. They have NEVER had any device on their network that consumes as much as iPhone. Verizon also has HORRIBLE customer service.
Dat cool. Strain relief for us AT&T users.
I’m stoked for people to leave AT&T. I’ve got great service. Less subscribers = less traffic. It will also force AT&T to make some plan price changes. Competition is GOOD.
It would be interesting to see how the people planning to switch correlate to the volume of data they use. If the most eager switchers are those that really suck data then AT&T might be happy to see them go to an extent, and obviously they will lessen the load on the network as a whole more than an occasional user.
I use an AT&T Microcell now (which they “thoughtfully” gave to me) and now after like about 15 years I get decent cell phone reception at home up in the hills of SoCal. I am going to San Francisco in a few months on a 2 year gig and worry about AT&T’s reception there downtown, especially in the Mission District (but more for the 3G for my iPad reception). I got my iP4 on AT&T last summer so I’m locked in for the moment. AT&T seems to have some advantages Verizon doesn’t. None of which are all that important to me.
It’s going to be REAL interesting, as in we live in interesting times, to see what happens to the hordes once they get the choice to bail.
Speaking as a foreigner who therefore doesn’t give a shit about CDMA, I’m confused. Won’t these switchers need to buy a second phone? The iPhone is expensive enough as it is, without having to shell out for two of them, surely?
And what about when a Verizon customer travels overseas? Must buy an AT&T phone in order to use an overseas network. Sounds like a silly circus to me.
NTSC then CDMA. What prompts America to adopt second-rate technology?
There are lies, blatant lies and then there are statistics. MDN hates Att and would spite his face by cutting his nose. The shysters need to low-ball apple and what better way than to say that net-net there won’t be as big a gain to apple since everyone on Att are jumping ship.
I dare MDN to iCal this changewave fabrication.
We, http://www.SellYourCell.com, have already seen an uptick of people selling us their AT&T iPhones. Companies like ours really reduce the pain of switching carriers. For example, if you bought a 32 GB iPhone 4G you could currently sell it to us for $450 which would give you money to help walk away from AT&T with money left over to buy your new Verizon iPhone. We currently pay $215 for the 32 GB iPhone 3Gs. Most people don’t know they can sell their old phones easily and get good money. We are trying to get the word out and are looking forward to buying those AT&T iPhones!
I’ll make the switch the day AT&T tells me that I can’t use my original unlimited data plan. Until then I’m staying where I’m at.
These people who think ATT is evil and switch to Verizon… they have no idea what evil is muah-ha-ha-ha-haaaaaaa!
I tend to think when push comes to shove and people actually see what they will be giving up to move to Verizon they will not switch. Giving up network speed and use of Phone and Data at the same time is a big problem for switchers.
I need GSM for travel.
I need voice & data.
I saved a ton on rollover minutes.
Data is *significantly* faster on AT&T in most places where I am.
My customer service experience is better with AT&T.
AT&T has also been great at allowing me to upgrade my iPhone every year. I’m not sure how the experience will be in regards to that with Verizon.
no data while on call, no rollover mintues = no VZ
How much does Verizon pay you to always put down AT&T. Verizon is the worst customer service I have ever dealt with. Your site has lost a lot of credibility we me with your constant stupid remarks, talk about monkey boy, just look in the mirror. I have taken all my stuff away from Verizon, they just plain suck!!!. I have had 3 encounters with AT&T customer service and all have been top notch not like Verizon, for my small troubles they have given me credits and the last time 1000 extra roll over minutes. With verizon if you can through everything is always you fault. So monkey boys keep smoking what your smoking, my be its time for a drug test.
go take long walk off a short pier verizon >:|