When Verizon iPhone doubles Apple’s market share, analysts will choke on their words

Apple Online Store“Almost no one is going to buy a Verizon iPhone unless they’re already using an iPhone, claim pundits who are clearly high on something,” Beatweek Magazine writes.

“Here’s what’s actually going to happen: Verizon customers, who’ve been stubbornly holding for the iPhone for as long as it’s existed, will line up in droves, literally, on the first day the Verizon iPhone is available,” Beatweek writes. “AT&T customers, who’ve been using the iPhone going back to 2007, will mostly stay put. With Verizon about as large as AT&T, it’s easily conceivable that the arrival of the iPhone on the other side of that impenetrable cellular wall will result in the iPhone seeing its U.S. marketshare double by the time it fully saturates itself among Verizon customers, leaving analysts who are predicting the converse to choke on their own words.”

Beatweek writes, “In the mean time, with what little time is left before the Verizon iPhone rolls, it’s worth analyzing why the analysts have got it so wrong.”

Full article here.

Also from Beatweek: Get a tent: Verizon iPhone 4 store lineups to dominate early 2011 tech

MacDailyNews Take: A useful reminder that, with most people adverse to paying significant early termination fees, it will take two years for all of Verizon’s customers to roll out of their contracts and upgrade to new iPhones (unless Verizon offers some sort of early iPhone upgrade deal to their customers).

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Dan K.” and “Brian A.” for the heads up.]

46 Comments

  1. I agree with the MDN Take. People already on Verizon have existing contracts with other devices. People with iPhones on ATT who want to switch to Verizon have existing contracts. The effect on iPhone market share and iPhone share balance (between Verizon and ATT) will be somewhat gradual.

    Also, Apple has been selling iPhone 4 as fast as they are being produced. Therefore, the #1 reason for Apple selling twice as many iPhones over time is not because there is a Verizon iPhone. It is because Apple is willing and able to produce iPhones at twice the current rate.

    NOW, if these Verizon iPhone “rumors” do not come true this time, THEN all of these “analysts will choke on their words.”

  2. “You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.” — Palm investor Roger McNamee, March 2009.

  3. “CDMA doesn’t work that way and verizon handles way more data in the last report, mainly due to corporate laptop cards. My building has about 200 people with them alone.”

    Doesn’t work what way? Like, get overwhelmed by data traffic. Please. It may, in fact, have more capacity and use it more efficiently, but that does not mean it cannot be troubled by traffic.

    Your laptop argument is useless without comparing the number of AT&T wireless cards and/or their relative data traffic. You anecdotal evidence is especially useless since it may or may not be representative of any other building.

    You may or may not be correct, but at least provide enough information to create a persuasive argument.

  4. The question about whether ATT customers will endure penalties to switch to Verizon will quickly be answered each time two iPhone users are trying to make calls/connect to the net and only one of them is able to do so.

    I live in a semi-rural area and the coverage for AT&T is so bad it’s kept me from getting an iPhone.

    I know a dozen people who will be getting the iPhone when it’s on Verizon.

  5. I doubt if iPhone market share will double. 50% possibly. I’m guessing a lot of AT&T iPhone users might switch to Verizon which will cause them to buy new iPhones. Still, even 50% growth in a year could be considered good as it might make the iPhone get critical mass for FaceTime use and it will give corporations a little more flexibility in the way of carriers. It’ll be gravy for Apple whatever market share growth occurs.

    Yeah, the Palm Pre was supposed to crush the iPhone, but now it’s just a forgotten piece of plastic that probably hardly anyone remembers along with Palm itself.

  6. CDMA (more precisely here, EV-DO) has significant technical advantages for carriers over HSDPA/UMTS in that it allows more nodes per tower, and has greater penetration through obstacles (buildings). This is why AT&T must spent much more money in order to achieve similar coverage and network accessibility to Verizon’s.

    So, even though Verizon is now carrying more data than AT&T, this doesn’t impact their network load as much as it would AT&T, because of the technological differences that favour CDMA/EV-DO.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if, when the iPhone (eventually) appears on Verizon, the network load doesn’t adversely affect the performance there.

    As for early termination, I doubt any Android sufferers will pay it; they’ll just stick it out for another year or two. However, other (dumb)-phone users with cheap voice-only plans, who’ve been waiting for a chance to get a smartphone might be interested. And for those, I wouldn’t be surprised if Verizon had some sweet offer.

    All this when Verizon eventually does get the iPhone, which I continue to believe will happen in early 2012.

  7. …”Your laptop argument is useless without comparing the number of AT&T wireless cards and/or their relative data traffic. “

    The guy who signed with @whatever stated two things, one of which is a fact (Verizon has more data traffic than AT&T), the other an opinion (probably due to the large number of corporate MiFi cards).

    I’m not sure whether the MiFi devices are the main culprit (some data indicates that Verizon’s Android users siphon much more data than AT&T users — probably Google’s fault), but the stats remain accurate: overall, for months now, Verizon has been shouldering more data traffic, sans iPhone, than AT&T, complete with all those iPhones.

  8. Hope this stuff is finally right. I just got my first “you’re off contract and we want you back on contract” text message from Verizon.

    If no Verizon iPhone shows up by the summer of 2011, I’m swearing off the whole “information about Apple on the Internet” gossip circuit (yes, that includes you, MDN). I can make up my own rumors and save a lot of time.

  9. Wouldn’t it be fun to have the Verizon iPhone turn up just in time for CES? It’s always fun to see Apple suck all the oxygen away from the rest of the tech industry.

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