When Verizon iPhone doubles Apple’s market share, analysts will choke on their words

Apple Online Store“Almost no one is going to buy a Verizon iPhone unless they’re already using an iPhone, claim pundits who are clearly high on something,” Beatweek Magazine writes.

“Here’s what’s actually going to happen: Verizon customers, who’ve been stubbornly holding for the iPhone for as long as it’s existed, will line up in droves, literally, on the first day the Verizon iPhone is available,” Beatweek writes. “AT&T customers, who’ve been using the iPhone going back to 2007, will mostly stay put. With Verizon about as large as AT&T, it’s easily conceivable that the arrival of the iPhone on the other side of that impenetrable cellular wall will result in the iPhone seeing its U.S. marketshare double by the time it fully saturates itself among Verizon customers, leaving analysts who are predicting the converse to choke on their own words.”

Beatweek writes, “In the mean time, with what little time is left before the Verizon iPhone rolls, it’s worth analyzing why the analysts have got it so wrong.”

Full article here.

Also from Beatweek: Get a tent: Verizon iPhone 4 store lineups to dominate early 2011 tech

MacDailyNews Take: A useful reminder that, with most people adverse to paying significant early termination fees, it will take two years for all of Verizon’s customers to roll out of their contracts and upgrade to new iPhones (unless Verizon offers some sort of early iPhone upgrade deal to their customers).

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Dan K.” and “Brian A.” for the heads up.]

46 Comments

  1. I agree with the MDN Take. People already on Verizon have existing contracts with other devices. People with iPhones on ATT who want to switch to Verizon have existing contracts. The effect on iPhone market share and iPhone share balance (between Verizon and ATT) will be somewhat gradual.

    Also, Apple has been selling iPhone 4 as fast as they are being produced. Therefore, the #1 reason for Apple selling twice as many iPhones over time is not because there is a Verizon iPhone. It is because Apple is willing and able to produce iPhones at twice the current rate.

    NOW, if these Verizon iPhone “rumors” do not come true this time, THEN all of these “analysts will choke on their words.”

  2. “You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.” — Palm investor Roger McNamee, March 2009.

  3. “CDMA doesn’t work that way and verizon handles way more data in the last report, mainly due to corporate laptop cards. My building has about 200 people with them alone.”

    Doesn’t work what way? Like, get overwhelmed by data traffic. Please. It may, in fact, have more capacity and use it more efficiently, but that does not mean it cannot be troubled by traffic.

    Your laptop argument is useless without comparing the number of AT&T wireless cards and/or their relative data traffic. You anecdotal evidence is especially useless since it may or may not be representative of any other building.

    You may or may not be correct, but at least provide enough information to create a persuasive argument.

  4. The question about whether ATT customers will endure penalties to switch to Verizon will quickly be answered each time two iPhone users are trying to make calls/connect to the net and only one of them is able to do so.

    I live in a semi-rural area and the coverage for AT&T is so bad it’s kept me from getting an iPhone.

    I know a dozen people who will be getting the iPhone when it’s on Verizon.

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