Sure thing: Verizon iPhone is now fully baked into our 2011 Apple estimates, says Piper’s Munster

Apple Online Store“This morning, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster ratchets up his iPhone sales estimates, writing ‘we previously had Verizon partially baked into our model along with some cannibalization built in for iPhones sales at AT&T, but an early- or mid-[calendar year 2011] launch at Verizon is now fully baked into our CY11 estimates,'” The Wall Street Journal’s MarketBeat reports.

Our Take On The Timing Of iPhone At Verizon. Our model assumes Verizon launches the iPhone in early- or mid-CY11; while we do not know the timing of the launch we have modeled it to occur midway through the Mar-11 quarter. – Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster

MarketBeat reports, “Munster also moved his price target for the shares higher, to $438.”

Full article here.

28 Comments

  1. Yeah, the last time we had all this hullabaloo was with the amazing Verizon iPad – and what was that? Nothing special, nothing you couldn’t buy from the beginning on your own – now packaged up and sold to you with an expensive data plan.

    I’d be willing to bet that the new Verizon thing in the works, if anything, is an iPad that can use Verizon 3G/CDMA and perhaps LTE – an experiment if you will, a test. Gives them a year to prepare for 2012 when the AT&T exclusive iPhone contract expires to see how they can do with the traffic.

    But heck, it’s just a guess…

  2. I fall in the “it will be 2012” camp. But, the thing that bothers me about analysts including estimates for a Verizon iPhone is they are setting us up for a pullback when it doesn’t come out in 2011. It’s going to piss me off when Apple has record iPhone sales and the stock gets hammered because of no iPhone on Verizon.

  3. Anyone who would deny Apple the opportunity to expand the iPhone franchise is ignorant and myopic.

    I believe if Apple hadn’t sold out to AT&T with such a long-term contractual obligation, Verizon would have had their iPhone years ago.

    But let’s be clear, this isn’t about market share, money, or vengeance. Those are the soft targets, the low-hanging fruit, reserved for the Microsofts’ and the Androids’ of the world, and for those who measure success by head-counts and balance sheets.

    Apple’s expansion of the iPhone platform is all about mindshare; empowering their customers with tools, concepts, and services designed to grow with the user’s experience. Easter eggs aside, who here has experienced a serendipitous moment of discovery while using Apple products?

    That Apple’s products can do the kinds of things you’d expect from an item costing a premium is a given, but what many soon discover is, these products prove to be much more useful than we could have imagined. Not a day passes where we don’t read about some ingenious way of using Apple’s products for something other than its intended purpose. One wonders if Apple’s scientists had pondered the myriad uses and benefits of their products.

    As breeze said, it’s inevitable.

    Is it such a monumental endeavor that you can’t begin to fathom the possibilities of the iPhone on any domestic carrier except AT&T? The iPhone is available on just about every carrier on the planet except Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mo and Apple is to blame for that, not AT&T and their exclusive arrangement.

    Steve Jobs is credited with breaking the logjam that stymied innovation in mobile telecommunications for over a century, and it took someone with absolutely no experience in the field to do it. Jobs didn’t break down these barriers, only to create another self-imposed limitation, based on some emotionally misplaced sense of justice in the marketplace. He did it to sell phones.

    He not only embarrassed the so-called phone experts, he exposed their greedy game of withholding features and services and their selfish acts of collaboration between the carriers and the phone makers to restrict the flow of information.

    Steve Jobs didn’t do this because he’s a humanitarian, he did it in order to open up an untapped market for premium phones. Now that he’s conquered the world using AT&T as leverage, he’s ready to conquer America by opening up the iPhone franchise to anyone who wants it.

    Verizon will be next in line, because they’re the second largest carrier in the US and because Apple wants to sell at least another twenty-million phones by next Christmas. With each iPhone sold, Apple stands to gain much, much more than it’s share of the sale.

  4. Excuse me, but I wasn’t implying mobile telecommunications has been around for over a century. I went back and added “mobile” to that sentence without realizing I made a reference to time.

    However, I believe when historians look back on this moment in time, they will see Apple’s and Jobs’ contribution to telecommunications as the proverbial turning a corner, a paradigm shift in thinking about market forces, and the empowerment of consumers to the benefit of mankind.

    Perhaps it’s inevitable that, in a society who values money above all else, would make life sufferable to those who can afford to pay their way and that the majority of us will leave this world never knowing the possibilities.

    I can assure you though, it’ll be because of Apple’s pricey products, that appeal to the affluent, who in turn will insist that businesses cater to all of the features and benefits these products have to offer, that the masses too will benefit from their potential.

    One example is, the CEO and his minions, that adopt the iPhone, will be agreeable to allowing their employees to share the same experience. My daughter bought an iPhone but has been waiting for her Verizon contract to expire so she could move over to AT&T when her law firm decided to pick up the tab for her iPhone. So now she has two services and two phones. I guess she’ll probably let the Verizon contract expire.

    Anyway, hope you all have a merry Christmas and a happy new year.

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  5. Am I the only one who remembers that the original ‘5’ year contract with ATT was based on the first iPhone that had in the contract a split of the monthly fee as part of it since both Apple and ATT knew they had something great but didn’t know fore sure people would buy right away. They (both) reworked the contract away from that model with the intro of the 3G which internationally Apple was already exploring the multi-carrier deals the have today. If they redid the contract, that amendment could also have stipulated the agreements new termination date of Dec 31, 2010. Not that I know anything inside Apple or ATT but that’s how contracts work. If based on the agreed change to the money paid Apple, the could also have changed the term date of the agreement since the 5 year plan was to ensure ATT would be sufficiently rewarded for helping the iPhone we know today be (and it was already a smash hit when they reworked the payment agreement. The iPad could have been a final thank you from Jobs for the success ATT allowed by being open to how Apple wanted control, which is a part of why it was such a success. Verizon would have ruined the iPhone with the mandatory VCast store and their other controls.

  6. MacTony – I believe that Apple either has a clause in its contract with ATT which allows it to sell iPhones on another carrier if that carrier is using an advanced network OR Apple has the ability to buy its way out of exclusivity. Reason? Just as you explained and analysts have pointed out – the rumor of an impending Verizon iPhone is freezing their market, yet Verizon is mum about trying to dispel the rumor. Wouldn’t their p.r. people be going out of their way to dispel this? They would certainly have the right to. But they’re not, which indicates that they DON’T have the right to because of Apple’s secrecy clauses.

    I’m certainly not 100% sure, and I know people who have gone ahead and bought Android phones recently because they’re tired of waiting and Verizon works best for them, but it sure seems strange that not one person at Verizon is dispelling this rumor.

  7. Because if people are anxious to buy iPhones (and we know that 300,000 of them do it every day), Verizon would love to convince at least some of them that they should NOT buy an AT&T iPhone, but instead wait until Verizon gets one.

    You have to remember, when a customer walks into a Verizon store, they can easily convince them that the Android they’re selling is just as good, maybe even better, than the iPhone they came to buy. However, Verizon can’t do anything if that customer walks into an AT&T (or Apple) store. So, they keep kindling this rumour that they’re getting an iPhone soon.

    While it possibly freezes Android sales on Verizon, it also freezes iPhone sales on AT&T. All Verizon wants is to have people who were about to go to AT&T for an iPhone, come to their Verizon stores, in hopes of soon getting an iPhone. Once they get them into the store, they’ll likely get them to buy a Droid.

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