Gruber writes, “The irony is that there’s more doubt today about the long-term prospects of the Mac than there has been at any time since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997… Here’s the short version of the ‘Mac is doomed’ scenario: iOS is the future, Mac OS X is the past, and Apple is strongly inclined to abandon the past in the name of the future.”
Gruber writes, “Long term—say, ten years out—well, all good things must come to an end. But in the short term, Mac OS X has an essential role in an iOS world: serving as the platform for complex, resource-intensive tasks.”
Full article here.
“Long term—say, ten years out—well, all good things must come to an end”
What the heck does THAT mean? He expects the Mac to disappear in 10 years or Windows? Or the traditional desktop altogether?
How can anyone predict what will happen in 10 years? Who imagine that a phone like the iPhone will exist just 3 years ago? May be even the iOS will be out in 10 years.
One thing is for sure though, if Steve is still in this earth in 10 years, it will be him who defines the times…
I don’t understand him either. Steve stated that odd Trucks vs. Cars scenario. Trucks (desktops) will always be around to do heavy tasks and complement the Cars (iOS devices). I don’t see this changing. 10.7 should help this tard out when he sees it. He should understand by then lets hope.
Hell, if Ray Kurzweil is to be believed, in 10 years we’ll all be waving our arms in a 3D nanobot field moving neuro-bits around, interacting directly with the borg-inspired monomind.
MacOS X will be at the root of it all though (of course).
iOS is a subset of OS X. It is part of OS X with a different GUI and multi gestures. OS X will always be there.
I read the full article. He sounds like an Apple hater who is still trying to put that message out, while hiding it in an Apple is good article. Rambling and pointless.
trolling?
Just a thought,
en
Seeing I’m a recent switcher, Steve Jobs’ RDF has reached the deepest depths of Redmond. Or should I say REF – reality enabling field. Get a Mac, you won’t go back.
A long time ago, Jobs in the wilderness had once lamented that he had one more computer left in him. I think with the iPad/iOS that has finally come to pass. He has played it exceptionally well this time around (a masterstroke), held back the tablet production/development and allowed the mass to get comfortable with the iOS via iPhone/iPod touches. Market for Tablet wasn’t there, just like the Macs, but phones, why not revolutionise that first. Created an App store echo system along the way, so history like with fewer apps on the Mac won’t repeat. iPad was a blockbuster before it was even announced.
I think, maybe it’s time for Mr. Jobs to take his leave while well on top. I envision him moving beyond anything tech. The man is gifted, and the world may demand something completely different (as opposed to Mike Jordan dreaming up baseball or golf stardom).
Steve can and HAS done better on various different fields.
OS X has a lot more flexibility than iOS. For one thing, we have bigger screens, more input devices, more output devices, more security.
I suppose if iOS becomes a replacement to OSX then sure. But I dont see a mobile device replace a desktop, workstation, laptop ANYTIME (sooner or later).
People are abondoning Windows because it is a pain. Is Mac OSX a pain? I dont think so. Will it ever become a pain? I dont think so.
I dont think OSX will EVER be plagued by viruses as so many predict it will when market share is significant.
My conspiracy theory is that Apple has a virus shop in the back generating Window viruses.
@ElderNorm Gruber is one of the premier Apple bloggers. His blog, Daring Fireball is a must read. He’s definitely not a hater or a troll.
In 10 years Mac OS X probably will be gone, but it will be replaced by the next Mac OS. In 10 years there will still be a definite need for powerful desktop systems, and their OS will be different from iOS or whatever Apple is using at that time.
We are not reducing the amount of data we are consuming, we’re exponentially increasing it. That goes for desktops too – 10 years ago, no one had gigabytes of movies, music, photos, etc. on their computers for casual use. As tools for manipulating this data get easier and easier to use, more and more power will be demanded of desktop systems.
We’ll probably see the desktop system morph into a home server system, the central depository for all your data, syncing with a cloud for backup and mobile use, and iPads or similar systems for accessing that data. Laptops will still be around, but much less favored than tablets, phones, etc.
Mac OS X isn’t yesterday’s news. It’s the bedrock that the future Mac OS will evolve from.
When Steve Jobs did his preview on the next iteration of OSX (for the desktop) he also included a graphic where the innovations in the desktop OS made the iPhone/iPad OS possible since the foundation is the same. And the graphic also made the point that some of the iOS innovation was being brought into the fold for the desktop OS typically referred to as OSX. He called it a virtuous circle. I think that asking if OSX will go away is the wrong question. The right question is how will innovation on one side of the OSX development (desktop or iOS) lead to innovation on the other. And in either case any improvements in the foundation are shared by both implicitly.
Mac OS Xi
Try developing on the iOS…
The synergy of OSX on these products is central.
The real issue is where the action occurs or where it will occur…
…increasingly it will move to the web as the file format and storage device.
This is a silly argument. Of course, things will change, they always change. How many out there are still using OS 9 or OS X 10.1…hands…hello…I thought so. Big deal things will change—I hope so.
At home, I can’t do better than sitting in the living room with
a MacBook Pro and 30″ Apple monitor to cruise the Net, do
Photoshop, watch videos, etc. But EVERYWHERE else
(on the can,front of the TV,in bed,on front porch,at work,
at the bar,in the car,etc.) it’s the iPad/iPhone combo
hands down.
“At home, a MacBook Pro and 30” Apple monitor. But EVERYWHERE else it’s the iPad/iPhone combo
hands down.”
Amen Brother (or Sister?) !!!
McGruber!!!!
Ridiculous speculation. SJ is not abandoning the Mac or Mac OS X, he is simply evolving it. iOS will be embedded/integrated with Mac OS X to bring iOS devices and the Mac even closer together. But the functionality that you currently enjoy on your Mac will not go away unless Apple goes away.
Why does this FUD regarding the demise of the Mac and Mac OS X continue to circulate? The only possible beneficiaries of this FUD are Apple’s competitors – Android devices, Microsoft, and Wintel computer vendors. Don’t contribute to it.
Don’t waste your time.
@daugav369pils
Yes! I use a Mac Pro with a 42″ monitor and 19″ monitor for the workstation in my home. All or most other computer-usage scenarios are great with the iPad, or the iPhone/IPod, etc. I used to believe that desktop computers would decrease in size in the near term. They won’t. But other computers will- and are. Desktops will, for the foreseeable future, be of importance for high-end pro work like cgi but laptops and the iPad will serve many very obvious purposes where size is as much a factor as their performance. The two platforms will peacefully coexist for many years to come and their own OSs might remain separate, they might merge, but that won’t matter- as long as the two platforms exist and perform to the level that they continue to meet the various types of needs different people have in different professions.
I will say this again. I am convinced that Steve Jobs will declare that the Lion is the last of the Mac OS X cats. As iOS continues to evolve and gain desktop-grade features, it will continue to attract development of more complex apps. The Mac line will slowly morph from keyboard-mouse-display Mac OS X to multi-touch display only iOS (with an optional keyboard for heavy typists). Very soon, Adobe, Microsoft and Avid will be announcing fully-featured versions of their flagship applications for iOS. And that will be the tipping point, after which Mac OS X will quickly go into end-of-life maintenance mode, until it is officially killed and iOS declared the single universal OS to run on all Apple hardware, from iPod Nano, all the way to Mac Pro. Mouse will take its rightful place in a computer museum (right next to those punch cards), and we will be asking ourselves how were we able to get ANYTHING meaningful done with that awkward, unintuitive and carpal-tunnel-inducing pointing device. Humans will go back to the most intuitive interface that had existed throughout the history of humanity: touching the actual object of our work. Computing will finally become intuitive, fast and efficient.
well some student buying his first computer would also be considered a “first time Mac buyer”…
Not that I dispute the claim… just that like anything in advertising…. there are ways of enhancing the truth.
Where do I begin? Do I have to go totally Moe Howard on you chowderheads and Gruber too? Okay, one more time, for those of you who refuse to pay attention:
1. OS-X lives at the center of iOS. It’s not either/or. While iOS is specialized for mobile devices and gesture-based computing, all this would not be possible without the core of OS-X as its base.
2. As Steve Jobs articulated in his “trucks versus cars” analogy, there is a place in this world for BOTH OS-X and iOS. It is reasonable to conjecture perhaps that features and user interface attributes from one will influence the other. But that does NOT mean that OS-X will go away. Except…
3. Things don’t stand still, especially when you are talking about Apple. OS-X will not be around forever, any more than OS-9, OS-8, ad nauseum. Though we sit here speculiatin’ (thanks, Snoop Dog), it is fairly safe to assume that some very smart people in Cupertino are daring to ponder about what is to come. While it is relatively easy to get hints from various sources on future Apple hardware, insight on Apple’s software side is nearly opaque, a well-guarded secret.
It would not surprise me if a Skunk Works team of sorts has been quietly working on the next evolution (OS-XI?) of the Mac operating system, most likely with a lot of thought on how desktop and laptop computing will evolve, the role of cloud-based computing, the need for pervasive security, ease of interconnectivity, wireless technologies (both those we use today and more advanced versions to come), and how all this relates with hand-size, tablet-size (and future devices) as well as appliance devices such as the Apple TV and possibly other devices in the future.
The point is, don’t worry. Many of you will crow that what you’re used to now might change. But it will change. It must. The reason that Apple continues to grow like an Internet start-up while being a gigantic corporation is because Apple’s leadership is not afraid of creative destruction, of neither being comfortable nor satisfied with the status quo, and being mindful that there will always be competitors who may have bold new ideas, or boldly be willing to copy and try to sell at a lower price.
Whatever you do however, please do not ASSUME. Don’t assume that OS-X is going away, and don’t assume that things will stay as they are. They won’t.
That concludes today’s lesson, children.