Why Apple’s revolutionary iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market

“The assumption that Android will overtake iOS in tablets is based on two mistaken ideas. The first is that Android has already taken over the smartphone market, and the second is that the tablet market is similar to the smartphone market,” Daniel Eran Dilger writes for RoughlyDrafted Magazine.

“Android is widely thought to have taken over smartphones (in a manner similar to how Windows took over the PC market) because there are now more phones being sold with Android in the US than there are iPhones being sold in the US,” Dilger writes. “To someone living in the US, this might seem very much like what occurred in the early 90s, when Apple’s market share in PCs was rapidly outpaced by the growth of rival Windows PCs from a variety of manufacturers.”

“However, there are tremendous differences between the two that make this simplistic comparison entirely useless in understanding what will happen over the next year or two in the mobile world,” Dilger writes. “First of all, the PC market of the 90s is nothing like the smartphone market of today. As I’ll point out afterward, the tablet market is unlike smartphones as well.”

Full article here.

21 Comments

  1. I can quite honestly say the Android UI sucks donkeys nuts. Why anyone would need widgets in a small form factor like a mobile phone is beyond me. In what sense can an app not do what a widget does. More evidence of the clunkiness of the Android UI that you have to have a shortcut to a shortcut. Junk.

  2. It’s an iPad. I’m typing on one now. I like it a bunch. I like my iPod Touch, Mac Mini,iPhone,Apple TV and Macbook Pro too. But it’s an iPad. Leave the commercials (revolutionary iPad) to Apple. Just present the news. How silly.

  3. The most important point that he doesn’t drive home is that while many are already assuming that, due to the sheer number of Android mobile phones available out there (over 20 in the US market), they must be collectively taking larger market share.

    Recent data from NPD claims disputes that assumption. Until recently RIM had the largest market share in the smartphone market, and has, a few weeks ago, been overtaken by the iPhone. Android is still in 3rd place, with all the different models out there (not to mention different OS versions and carriers), competing against essentially two models (and one single OS, and one single carrier) of iPhone (3GS and 4).

  4. Just like Windows. Windows SUCKED from the get go. Loaded on cheap boxes. Now they rule market share.
    Google Android is good enough loaded on good enough hardware. Also free. They already passed Apple. Tablet are next. Google is the new Microsoft!

  5. Very Good Article! Spot on.

    Android has had phenomenal growth by filling the vacuum left by RIM’s inability to innovate rapidly enough for the market. It’s ability to sustain this growth is overstated, much like RIM’s 2 summers ago when it was at the high water mark, fresh off a huge Verizon BOGO promotion.

    BAD UI is magnified in a small form factor and Android loyalty is fleeting, having gained most of their audience from former Blackberry and new users, while iPhone has a fiercely loyal customer base, unlikely to jump platforms because they are happy with their experience and have a library of apps and music that would be lost if they switched.

  6. Dec 02, 10 – 02:18 pmComment from: Md. Masud Rana
    Hi
    I don’t know whom should I write to discuss on it.
    Can anyone tell Steve Jobs to put less pressure on ‘Home Button’ on iPhone! Sensitivity of the Home Button of my iPhone is decreasing day by day, using more of it!!

    Like, to go from one app to another we have to push Home Button (once to twice). But if we could do that on the touch screen we could avoid hardware damage (i.e., sensitivity of the Home Button)

    How we can do that: 
    When we start an apps, there can be an exit/quit button where just pressing (touching) that twice we can go to home screen in stead of pressing the Home Button once. 

    When we start an apps, there can also be an ‘Multi-Apps’ button where just pressing (touching) once or twice we can go to Multi Apps menu (on the bottom of the screen) in stead of pressing the Home Button twice!

    This way we can make our hardware’s (i.e., iPhone) life longer!!!

    Steve, I am a user of all your iPhone models. Please reply to my idea.

    Md. Masud Rana
    Managing Director
    Asia Composite Mills Ltd. 

  7. My major take-away from the article is that for smartphones, iPhone is now (in only its fourth year) making most of the available profit in the industry. With this money, Apple has the resources to further innovate, enhance the user experience, and make iPhone’s market position stronger. Android is given away for free, and the only way for Google to profit from it is through related ad revenue (and whatever Google does with collected user data).

    The same thing is happening with iPad, except that iPad enjoys iPod-like dominance from Day One. Unlike iPhone when it released, iPad is the tablet market.

  8. @Masud Rana
    Switches are meant to be pressed. My light switches in my house are older than any computer I have ever owned.

    If you are experiencing problems with yours take it back.

    Now back to the thread. Great article, a bit biased but that’s OK. I am glad people are remembering that MS already lost the race with tablets when they started in 2000.

  9. The big things are:

    1. Apple can already count on selling 10s of millions of iPads. The Android/MS/RIM OEMs can’t make that bet. At all.

    2. And because the iPads share components with iPhones, iPod touches and AppleTVs, Apple has economies of scale that no one else can even touch. Price will be an issue in Apple’s favor this time.

    3. Apple isn’t playing the telco price subsidy shell game this time. Android/RIM/MS/HP can’t hide behind the BOGOF shenanigans.

    4. The Android OEMs have to first beat each others brains out for components, subsidies, unique apps, shelf space, marketing, telco favors, etc. before they even begin to face Apple.

    5. The app developers have to futz around with 7″ screens, 5″ screens and upcoming 10″ screens. Or do they just wait until Google has a “real” Android tablet OS? Or should they wait for Chrome?

    6. The only real lock-ins for cell phones/tablets so far have been been carefully crafted native apps. And guess who has the most custom, native apps, the most profitable app market and the most popular SDK?

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