Schwarz: The Apple (AAPL) death march continues; stock to dip below $300?

Parallels Desktop 6 for Mac “The Apple (AAPL) death march, mirroring the 2009 end-of-year action, continues,” Jason Schwarz writes for TheStreet. “All those investors who are loaded up on January out-of-the-money calls — in hopes that the Verizon, China, iPad/iPhone, MacBook Air, Apple TV and earnings catalysts will lift the stock — have failed to identify the current market trend and have failed to accurately interpret historical precedent. We are in a very difficult investment environment right now and must invest accordingly.”

Consider the following market moving news items of the day:
• WikiLeaks is set to release Enron-like internal documents from a major U.S. bank sometime early next year.
• European contagion fear increased after the Irish bailout.
• The market is no longer certain that U.S. tax cuts are coming in 2011. President Obama is meeting with both sides to discuss the issue. So far, we see Democrats taking a hard line stance against the pro-growth policies.

Schwarz writes, “Bad sentiment surrounding banks, Europe, and tax policy is not a good thing for the stock market… The 2009 Apple comparison could be setting up quite nicely. During that death march, the only productive time to own Apple was from the Dec. 7 low of $188 until it reached $209 on Dec. 24. If we can get an entry below $300 during the first 10 days of December, we will be compelled to buy.”

Read more in the full article here.

36 Comments

  1. Nothing to see here, folks. Just another ass-wipe anal-yst trying (in vain) to drive AAPL down before the company posts another quarter of record earnings in mid-January.

    Where is the SEC when you need them? (Answer: NOWHERE, that’s where. For the most part, the game definitely rigged.

  2. @Macdoc

    Street troll ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” /> haha nice terminology.

    Yeah, this is total BS. I’ve had some apple stock since when it was 78, and I’ve been making a killing so far… will i sell? hell no!

    MDN word: Decision… as in “keeping AAPL is the right one”

  3. As much as I am a fan of AAPL, you can’t discount many of the factors he is siting here as a possible drag on AAPL. The company has done well in this difficult time, but their stock is really driven by future growth, which I think long term is very bright, but in the near term, all of the factors he is mentioning could be a drag on the stock.

    In other words, if you are planning on cashing out AAPL soon, maybe its a good time to do it. If you are long on AAPL, then there’s nothing to see here folks.

    Look at any significant dips as a buy-in opportunity.

  4. Clueless Street Troll, what does WikiLeaks, U.S. banks, the Irish bailout or Obama have to do with Apple’s products or services. Any idiot can see that people are dumping the other iKiller IT Crap and choosing Apple. Apple is rapidly growing and the others are being crushed! Maybe that list of stupidity is taking the others down faster.

  5. @ Macromancer:

    Did you read what you wrote? You could replace the ticker symbol AAPL in your post with almost any other and it would still read true.

    Moreover, all of the factors worrying little Schwartz are completely dwarfed by the upside potential in Asia and Brazil. We’ve had over a year of continuous growth completely carried by the expanding new markets while Europe and the USA sleep. That isn’t going to change. If anything, wise companies will find new ways to serve these emerging markets.

    … and moreover, all of us would be very happy to see another “too big to fail” bank get the thrashing it deserves rather than another free handout. That would be the best way to clear the books of toxic assets that these banks created themselves!

  6. Dear Mr. Schwarz,

    Trying to time any stock with day trades is stupid. Just hold on to Apple stock for the long run and let Mr. SJ and his team do their magic. You wont regret it.

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