So, how’d the Apple analysts do?  The best and worst of Q4 2010

Apple Online Store“This one can be summarized succinctly: The amateurs took the top and bottom lines; the pros swept unit shares and gross margin,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“In our ranking of the best and worst Apple (AAPL) analysts for Q4 2010, which lists them based on how accurately they predicted revenue and earnings per share, the top three spots — and nine of the top 15 — were taken by bloggers,” P.E.D. reports. “In the more comprehensive Deagol Ranking (see below), which weighs analysts’ performances in all the categories we polled, the pros took the first seven spots.”

P.E.D. reports, “Hats off to three bloggers — Financial Alchemist’s Turley Muller, Apple Finance Board’s Alexis Cabot and Deagol’s AAPL Model Daniel Tello — who topped our list, with a tip of the hat to Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky, who predicted Apple’s EPS to within a penny. Everybody underestimated those blow-out iPhone sales, but special mention goes to RBC’s Mike Abramsky, who underestimated them less than anybody. Bernstein’s Toni Saccanaghi took the honors for Mac unit sales. Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Walkley nailed the iPod number.”

Check out the full analyst smackdown in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: We love some of the analysts’ concern over margins during yesterday’s conference call – even though Apple clearly and repeatedly told them that margins would decline during the previous conference call. In one ear and – whoosh! – right out the other.

36 Comments

  1. Apple is squeezing the competition on a few fronts:
    1) Buy up as much flash and screen capacity as they can in order to
    make access to the parts nigh impossible to get at any large quantity
    which forces them into the 7 inch category
    2) Price the iPad very competitively in order to squeeze the profit
    out of any competing tablets

    Apple is taking a slight hit in profitability so that they can make it impossible for competitors to compete on price. Sounds like a plan and not an accident. Apple is not playing checkers, they’re playing three-dimensional chess.

  2. Apple is squeezing the competition on a few fronts:
    1) Buy up as much flash and screen capacity as they can in order to
    make access to the parts nigh impossible to get at any large quantity
    which forces them into the 7 inch category
    2) Price the iPad very competitively in order to squeeze the profit
    out of any competing tablets

    Apple is taking a slight hit in profitability so that they can make it impossible for competitors to compete on price. Sounds like a plan and not an accident. Apple is not playing checkers, they’re playing three-dimensional chess.

  3. Suits them…now they have what to use as a FUD panic button to drive selling, so they can get in again after dropping AAAple…

    They want big headroom and bigger profits than the market offers going into Apple’s holiday quarter which will be a blowout of epic magnitudes, but they want a discount and that’s what they’re creating by voicing bogus concerns about a stellar quarter.

  4. Suits them…now they have what to use as a FUD panic button to drive selling, so they can get in again after dropping AAAple…

    They want big headroom and bigger profits than the market offers going into Apple’s holiday quarter which will be a blowout of epic magnitudes, but they want a discount and that’s what they’re creating by voicing bogus concerns about a stellar quarter.

  5. 4.19 million iPads sold and they are not happy. The thing is they want to be unhappy. They can drive the stock price down for a while, knowing it will come back up. This is what happens when the market allows people to make money going down as well as going up. The tragedy is that this money is made at the expense of others who have to lose money for it to happen. It is gambling, pure and simple.

    What would happen to the market for anything where people could make money from driving the price up and then make money from driving the price up? It would fluctuate widely.

    What a system for ownership of a capitalist democracy! Unstable. Screw the little guys.

  6. 4.19 million iPads sold and they are not happy. The thing is they want to be unhappy. They can drive the stock price down for a while, knowing it will come back up. This is what happens when the market allows people to make money going down as well as going up. The tragedy is that this money is made at the expense of others who have to lose money for it to happen. It is gambling, pure and simple.

    What would happen to the market for anything where people could make money from driving the price up and then make money from driving the price up? It would fluctuate widely.

    What a system for ownership of a capitalist democracy! Unstable. Screw the little guys.

  7. I read the Reuters article about the earnings call, and couldn’t believe how much negative spin they put on what in every sense was a remarkable corporate performance. They talked about “disappointing” iPad sales — and that’s talking about the fastest-adopted consumer electronics product in history. And they talked about falling margins as if Apple were in Dell territory.

    Sheesh. Wonder what hedge fund trader paid off THAT reporter!

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