Will Apple again blow away earnings expectations today, and is it time for an AAPL stock split?

SpiritHalloween.com“Apple is sitting in an unbelievable position to be a leader in Mobile. With over 50M iPhones sold and going on 20M iPads sold, and both numbers increasing by millions per month, you can’t ask for a better position to be in,” Mobile Guru writes for Seeking Alpha. “The key being the people who buy these high end devices are the ones you want to target for Mobile advertising. So you already have the infrastructure for Mobile in all the devices, you have the right audience who are likely to buy via mobile, so now all you need are Mobile applications to bring it all together. It will be interesting to see if Apple breaks out its Mobile revenues like Google did last week.”

“So where do I think Apple will come in when they report later today? I personally think they will blow away expectations, although it always seems like you can never do good enough for some people,” Mobile Guru writes. “I doubt the stock will do a Google but you never know.”

Mobile Guru writes, “Long term, Apple seems to be in the right place for Mobile and they have some key advantages to be very successful going forward. Stock price wise I think they would do better with a $30 stock instead of a $300 one. I know it all works out the same, but it’s just like IBM did 20 years ago – they would split every few years just so the average investor could buy shares. I really believe they would quickly go from $30 to $60 compared to how many years it would take to go from $300 to $600. This could be the peoples’ stock like IBM was years ago.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “GetMeOnTop” for the heads up.]

102 Comments

  1. He (?) may be a “Mobile Guru”, but he’s no Business Genius. “I really believe they would quickly go from $30 to $60 compared to how many years it would take to go from $300 to $600.” Really? Any of you folk recall the recent comment that 21X Forward Earnings seems a bit steep? The bigger your P/E (or your Forward Earnings) the more likely you are over-priced. The further your valuation is from where the rest of the market is, the greater the chance of a “correction”.
    You want the price of stocks you own to go up. You do NOT want the over-valued stocks you own to undergo a correction.Apple is the most valuable tech company today. The price of AAPL reflects that fact. Would I like to see a split? Sure. I’d like to buy back in. Will it raise the Market Cap of the company? Maybe briefly.

  2. “However, if Apple is more concerned with smoothing out volatility and avoiding a bubble that pops, those are not the kind of investors you want. In that case, better to keep the shares a little expensive, though they could go down to $200, maybe $175, without risking too much.”

    Yeah, because the high share price has worked so well preventing AAPL from being volatile in the past

  3. “However, if Apple is more concerned with smoothing out volatility and avoiding a bubble that pops, those are not the kind of investors you want. In that case, better to keep the shares a little expensive, though they could go down to $200, maybe $175, without risking too much.”

    Yeah, because the high share price has worked so well preventing AAPL from being volatile in the past

  4. @DLMEYER
    So you are saying that you would buy back in if it split? If so, then you completely contradict yourself in this paragraph. You first rag on Mobile Guru and then you support his argument in the end by saying that you would buy back in if the stock split because, I am assuming, you would see it as a better candidate to increase in price. Why do you need the split in order for you to buy back in?

  5. @DLMEYER
    So you are saying that you would buy back in if it split? If so, then you completely contradict yourself in this paragraph. You first rag on Mobile Guru and then you support his argument in the end by saying that you would buy back in if the stock split because, I am assuming, you would see it as a better candidate to increase in price. Why do you need the split in order for you to buy back in?

  6. Split is not the issue. Valuation is. If Apple stock value is to grow significantly then buyers need to feel that the company is outperforming to sustain an higher than average P/E or forward P/E.

    Given the recent increase in stock value we could be in a major growth phase for the stock. With all product lines apparently doing well hype about Apple may cause a continued surge in the stock price. This would be analogous to the surge when the iPod achieved really traction in the market.

    The problem with this hype is that the stock becomes very volatile. We’ve seen it go all the way up to 200 before tanking back down to 70. This was not due to any perceived weakness in Apple products but economic issues and potentially SJ’s health.

    I hope to see Macs reach the 4M mark in sales for last quarter. This will be a good sign that Apple is continuing to growth in its existing markets whilst continuing to expand in new markets with the iPhone and iPad.

  7. Split is not the issue. Valuation is. If Apple stock value is to grow significantly then buyers need to feel that the company is outperforming to sustain an higher than average P/E or forward P/E.

    Given the recent increase in stock value we could be in a major growth phase for the stock. With all product lines apparently doing well hype about Apple may cause a continued surge in the stock price. This would be analogous to the surge when the iPod achieved really traction in the market.

    The problem with this hype is that the stock becomes very volatile. We’ve seen it go all the way up to 200 before tanking back down to 70. This was not due to any perceived weakness in Apple products but economic issues and potentially SJ’s health.

    I hope to see Macs reach the 4M mark in sales for last quarter. This will be a good sign that Apple is continuing to growth in its existing markets whilst continuing to expand in new markets with the iPhone and iPad.

  8. The original purpose of the stock market was for companies and/or startups to find funding for growth, development, expansion, etc. And for those with money to invest, to find companies to invest in.

    The only reason for a stock split is to generate more revenue for growth; a situation Apple doesn’t need since they’re debt-free and already have almost $50 billion they can use.

    They’re doing fine as is… don’t try and fix what isn’t broken.

  9. The original purpose of the stock market was for companies and/or startups to find funding for growth, development, expansion, etc. And for those with money to invest, to find companies to invest in.

    The only reason for a stock split is to generate more revenue for growth; a situation Apple doesn’t need since they’re debt-free and already have almost $50 billion they can use.

    They’re doing fine as is… don’t try and fix what isn’t broken.

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