Analyst ups AAPL estimates; says iPad killers ‘delayed, underwhelming or both’

Apple Online StorePhilip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune, “Stifel Nicolaus’ Doug Reid raised his Apple (AAPL) price target modestly Thursday — to $360 from $350 — in a note to clients that poured praise on the company and scorn on its competitors.”

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“Reid sharply increased his estimate for iPad unit sales in Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter to 5.4 million from 3.6 million, citing ‘robust demand'” in the U.S. and Europe and supplies adequate to meet it,” P.E.D. reports. “Although Apple’s competitors are rushing iPad look-alikes to market, he says, only one is available for sale and all are likely to be, in his words, ‘disadvantaged by unsuccessful attempts to integrate first generation tablet hardware with mobile OSes (Android 2.2/3.0, Chrome) that remain either nascent or entirely unproven relative to Apple’s nearly 4-year old iOS.'”

Read more in the full article, which includes Reid’s iPod and iPhone estimates, here.

MacDailyNews Take: “Any product that is essentially a copy of something else… there’s something inherently less interesting about them. Because the companies that make them don’t lead, they follow.” – Paul Thurrott, March 19, 2009

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]

50 Comments

  1. I am no fan of Google! And of course most Android apps are “calling home” maybe sending data back to Google. But that’s no problem, you can always make apps that block that. Personally I don’t believe in the tablet form, well, I have a netbook that runs ubuntu and it’s fantastic. But for the computer-illiterates I think a tablet will be a good solution, as long as it has two cores and a command line UI.

  2. I am no fan of Google! And of course most Android apps are “calling home” maybe sending data back to Google. But that’s no problem, you can always make apps that block that. Personally I don’t believe in the tablet form, well, I have a netbook that runs ubuntu and it’s fantastic. But for the computer-illiterates I think a tablet will be a good solution, as long as it has two cores and a command line UI.

  3. @Bizarro
    Google has not released a “tablet” version of the Android OS. When it does, then you may have something to talk about. Until then, it is typical Google betaware at best, and Microsoft vaporware, at worst.

    Manufacturers are, and will continue to use Android for two reasons – it’s free and it is just about the only alternative to iOS that isn’t locked up by someone else. That does not make it better. Neither does attempting to disparage iOS as a “walled garden.” Sound bites are not a valid argument.

    You really don’t get this forum, do you? Don’t you realize that the content in your posts is similar to preaching tax increases to teabaggers? Waste of time…

  4. @Bizarro
    Google has not released a “tablet” version of the Android OS. When it does, then you may have something to talk about. Until then, it is typical Google betaware at best, and Microsoft vaporware, at worst.

    Manufacturers are, and will continue to use Android for two reasons – it’s free and it is just about the only alternative to iOS that isn’t locked up by someone else. That does not make it better. Neither does attempting to disparage iOS as a “walled garden.” Sound bites are not a valid argument.

    You really don’t get this forum, do you? Don’t you realize that the content in your posts is similar to preaching tax increases to teabaggers? Waste of time…

  5. > disadvantaged by unsuccessful attempts to integrate first generation tablet hardware with mobile OSes (Android 2.2/3.0, Chrome) that remain either nascent or entirely unproven relative to Apple’s nearly 4-year old iOS.

    Wait… iPad is “first generation tablet hardware” too until the new ones are released. And “iPhone OS” (released closer to THREE years ago) was only enhanced to be iPad’s OS about six months ago. The version that is currently on iPads is still not even officially “iOS” yet. Despite what the marketing says, Apple does not have some MAGIC “time machine” that provided an instant head start with iPad (and other new product lines).

    The competition is “disadvantaged” because they are not Apple. Apple seems to be the only major tech company these days with the courage to take risks and intentionally make the “different” choices. Everyone else watches Apple and copies as fast as possible.

    And that’s the key “disadvantage” – By the time Apple’s rivals see the next “big thing” they have to frantically copy, Apple has been secretly working on it for the last two years.

  6. > disadvantaged by unsuccessful attempts to integrate first generation tablet hardware with mobile OSes (Android 2.2/3.0, Chrome) that remain either nascent or entirely unproven relative to Apple’s nearly 4-year old iOS.

    Wait… iPad is “first generation tablet hardware” too until the new ones are released. And “iPhone OS” (released closer to THREE years ago) was only enhanced to be iPad’s OS about six months ago. The version that is currently on iPads is still not even officially “iOS” yet. Despite what the marketing says, Apple does not have some MAGIC “time machine” that provided an instant head start with iPad (and other new product lines).

    The competition is “disadvantaged” because they are not Apple. Apple seems to be the only major tech company these days with the courage to take risks and intentionally make the “different” choices. Everyone else watches Apple and copies as fast as possible.

    And that’s the key “disadvantage” – By the time Apple’s rivals see the next “big thing” they have to frantically copy, Apple has been secretly working on it for the last two years.

  7. Up to this very moment for the past 6 months in every competitors’ labs, there are a number of iPads being torn apart and their innards put through intense scrutiny under the telescope in order to discover the secret ingredients for the success of the iPads. By this method of reverse engineering, it would probably save years of toil and despair for competitors to come out with their own tablets. However, most of them would still not get it and they will just take the lazy and easy way out by just adding redundant features that will demand users to jump through layers of hoops.

  8. Up to this very moment for the past 6 months in every competitors’ labs, there are a number of iPads being torn apart and their innards put through intense scrutiny under the telescope in order to discover the secret ingredients for the success of the iPads. By this method of reverse engineering, it would probably save years of toil and despair for competitors to come out with their own tablets. However, most of them would still not get it and they will just take the lazy and easy way out by just adding redundant features that will demand users to jump through layers of hoops.

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