What if Verizon never gets Apple’s iPhone?

RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky “is not surprised Apple and Verizon may be having trouble striking a deal,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

P.E.D. reports, “If the two companies don’t come to terms, what does it mean? According to Abramsky… The impact of on RBC’s estimates (currently assume 55 million iPhones fiscal 2011) is ‘nominal’ … He had previously assumed 6-8 million iPhones could come from Verizon in 2011, but some of that — perhaps up to 4-5 million — could be made up by T-Mobile and Sprint.”

“Given Apple shares has been rising recently largely on its fundamentals, Abramsky doesn’t expect this development to have a major negative impact on its share price,” P.E.D. reports.

Read more in the full article here.

84 Comments

  1. R2, the head Verizon iPhone cheerleader of MDN, has also pondered this very question in moments of self doubt.

    The answer is that I’d still want a CDMA iPhone, only on Sprint. I think it should be part of a strategy I call “everything-but-Verizon.” I would like the iPhone on ATT, Sprint and T-Mobile in the event that a deal can’t happen, particularly if it falls through due to odious demands from Verizon (like wanting any control over iOS). I’d rather no iPhone on Verizon than one where I can see their fingerprints after entering the unlock code on my iPhone.

    In the end, my beef is about carrier choice. Sprint has pretty good, reliable 3G coverage here in my part of town and I’d like to try a Sprint iPhone if I can’t have one with Verizon.

  2. R2, the head Verizon iPhone cheerleader of MDN, has also pondered this very question in moments of self doubt.

    The answer is that I’d still want a CDMA iPhone, only on Sprint. I think it should be part of a strategy I call “everything-but-Verizon.” I would like the iPhone on ATT, Sprint and T-Mobile in the event that a deal can’t happen, particularly if it falls through due to odious demands from Verizon (like wanting any control over iOS). I’d rather no iPhone on Verizon than one where I can see their fingerprints after entering the unlock code on my iPhone.

    In the end, my beef is about carrier choice. Sprint has pretty good, reliable 3G coverage here in my part of town and I’d like to try a Sprint iPhone if I can’t have one with Verizon.

  3. F**k Verizon.

    They had their chance and blew it. I think I’d rather see Apple give the iPhone to ALL OTHER carriers and see what happens.

    Personally, I’d prefer Sprint since I’ve always had great reception and never a problem with billing or customer service.

  4. F**k Verizon.

    They had their chance and blew it. I think I’d rather see Apple give the iPhone to ALL OTHER carriers and see what happens.

    Personally, I’d prefer Sprint since I’ve always had great reception and never a problem with billing or customer service.

  5. I have a feeling the iphone will go right to tmobile first since its just a small adjustment to software…. could just be a setting like with unlocked phones where you select carrier.. if you get it from tmobile then it is automatically set to tmobile.. though I think I heard they run on a different frequency….

    Sprint should get it next after them. They have a good data network and I never had issues with their coverage.

    Verizon should be last just so they can suffer a little from their bad decision to not get the iphone originally.

  6. I have a feeling the iphone will go right to tmobile first since its just a small adjustment to software…. could just be a setting like with unlocked phones where you select carrier.. if you get it from tmobile then it is automatically set to tmobile.. though I think I heard they run on a different frequency….

    Sprint should get it next after them. They have a good data network and I never had issues with their coverage.

    Verizon should be last just so they can suffer a little from their bad decision to not get the iphone originally.

  7. Gksmith I’ve had nothing but good service and great tech support w Verizon and I’m a techie and not easily mishandled and when I don’t get what I want from the first tech I get, I request Tier 2. I only have wireless so maybe your anger is with their land service? I have a Treo which has an inherent unfixable freeze issue and Verizon has given me free talk time refunds and even a discount toward my next phone upgrade which vie been hinge will be an iPhone. I on the other hand hate AT&T and have been waiting years for one of the rumors to come true. But I’m on my last leg now that I have an iPad. So if Verizon doesn’t get it, FINALLY after decades with them leaving to get an iPhone at the leaser of the alternative providers if Sprint and or TMobile get it. I may even go with ATT if they continue to improve their network. Bottomline is if Verizon doesn’t get the iPhone I predict it will hurt Verizon, not Apple, as I believe people will leave Verizon especially that many of us non iPhone owners have more than our toe in the water with the owning th iPad.

  8. Gksmith I’ve had nothing but good service and great tech support w Verizon and I’m a techie and not easily mishandled and when I don’t get what I want from the first tech I get, I request Tier 2. I only have wireless so maybe your anger is with their land service? I have a Treo which has an inherent unfixable freeze issue and Verizon has given me free talk time refunds and even a discount toward my next phone upgrade which vie been hinge will be an iPhone. I on the other hand hate AT&T and have been waiting years for one of the rumors to come true. But I’m on my last leg now that I have an iPad. So if Verizon doesn’t get it, FINALLY after decades with them leaving to get an iPhone at the leaser of the alternative providers if Sprint and or TMobile get it. I may even go with ATT if they continue to improve their network. Bottomline is if Verizon doesn’t get the iPhone I predict it will hurt Verizon, not Apple, as I believe people will leave Verizon especially that many of us non iPhone owners have more than our toe in the water with the owning th iPad.

  9. @Shmerls

    As gksmith, I despise Verizon, and would go without a cell phone before returning to them. My issue was with their wireless service. Their coverage was on par with others – but they ripped me off everytime they could. They made mistakes on my services, and I had to pay for correcting their mistakes each time; they charged fees for touching a wrong button – a very bad experience.

  10. @Shmerls

    As gksmith, I despise Verizon, and would go without a cell phone before returning to them. My issue was with their wireless service. Their coverage was on par with others – but they ripped me off everytime they could. They made mistakes on my services, and I had to pay for correcting their mistakes each time; they charged fees for touching a wrong button – a very bad experience.

  11. I still don’t get how a CDMA iPhone will work. Given that:

    1. You can have a 2-way signal on GSM/3G.

    2. Verizon is a jerk and they are on CDMA.

    I think it makes better sense to have a 3G/4G set-up like Sprint or T-mobile which can already work if they get the current iPhone.

  12. I still don’t get how a CDMA iPhone will work. Given that:

    1. You can have a 2-way signal on GSM/3G.

    2. Verizon is a jerk and they are on CDMA.

    I think it makes better sense to have a 3G/4G set-up like Sprint or T-mobile which can already work if they get the current iPhone.

  13. @MEES,

    It’s either going to be 2012 before we see a Verizon iPhone (which aligns with rumors about the contract) or the Verizon iPhone will 3G/4G by having a second model that’s Verizon’s or having both GSM and CDMA radios.

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