“Verizon is on the cusp of rolling out a next-generation 4G LTE network,” Gruber writes. “Wouldn’t it make sense for Apple to wait for LTE and skip CDMA altogether? That depends on the timing, I think. If Apple is willing to wait another year, or, if it simply takes another year to come to terms with Verizon, then sure, maybe the first Verizon iPhone will go straight to LTE. But if they want to start selling an iPhone on Verizon soon — meaning January — then CDMA is the only practical solution.”
“The whole point of expanding to Verizon is to gain market share in the U.S. It’s about high-volume iPhone sales, coast to coast,” Gruber writes. “A big part of the reason there’s so much demand for a Verizon iPhone is that so many people aren’t satisfied with AT&T’s coverage and quality. Even if their LTE rollout goes exactly as planned — a big “if” — LTE is going to be a niche technology in January, available in a few dozen cities. There may well be tens of million of Verizon customers in those cities, but Apple would want a Verizon iPhone to be aimed squarely at all Verizon customers. The message: ‘Everyone waiting for a Verizon iPhone: here it is.'”
“Which leads to the question of why launch a CDMA in January, rather than, say, waiting another six months and expanding to Verizon on the iPhone’s regular new-model-year schedule. In short: six months is a long time in this market,” Gruber writes. “I’m imagining a scenario like this. Release a CDMA iPhone 4 on Verizon in January. Sell it for six months, as a Verizon peer to the $199/299 iPhone 4 models at AT&T. Then, come June, unveil the fifth-generation iPhone during the WWDC keynote.”
There’s much more in the full article – recommended – here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “qka” for the heads up.]
Why would Apple bother making a special CDMA version of the iPhone, when they would not be able to sell it anywhere else in the world? It might make sense if you live in the USA, but it doesn”t make commercial sense if you are a multinational consumer electronics company.
It would still cost the same to develop a CDMA model as a 3G model, but would be much more expensive per unit to produce (due to the limited numbers, retooling, etc). Given the worldwide demand for the GSM/3G models, and given that Apple can’t make enough iPhone handsets to satisfy worldwide demand, surely it would be more profitable for Apple to just keep making the models they have, rather than waste time on what is a limited, dead end market?
Even when the next model is inevitably introduced next year, there is still no compelling economic incentive for Apple to make a CDMA iPhone 5.
@Gregg Thurman
SVDO over CDMA can do simultaneous voice/data, and it would be just a firmware update for most of the modern phones and cell sites out there – it’s just that most of them don’t have the user interface for it.
My take? Qualcomm has a LTE+CDMA chip. What I think of as the “iPhone 4.5” should function quite well with CDMA & SVDO, and should just roll onto LTE as it becomes available. It would not surprise me to also see the “iPhone 4.5” brought out in a LTE+GSM configuration at the same time, as Qualcomm has that configuration available as well.
Disclaimer: I’m one of those guys that originally thought that iPod was a TERRIBLE idea, so take my musings for what they’re worth.
First.
Apple will NOT do an LTE only iPhone for Verizon. As has been said, LTE roll out will take time. (Not 4-5 years, but most certainly more than 2.) Apple will not sell an iPhone that can only be used in 5% of the U.S. at any given time.
Second.
It is *extremely* unlikely that Apple will pick up both CDMA *and* WiMax going forward. The only thing supporting Apple creating an iPhone that supports CDMA is that Verison is going to LTE. An iPhone for Sprint (or other much lesser carriers) that supports WiMax is about as likely as Steve Jobs retiring by the end of this calendar year. The vast majority of carriers are going to LTE. Don’t ever expect Apple to do a WiMax iPhone.
Third.
An out of cycle CDMA/LTE iPhone that supports Verison to ship in calendar Q1 of 2011 announced days — or at most a few weeks — ahead of shipping makes sense. Ever heard of the “Osborne Effect”? Announcing in September that shipping will start in January will not happen. Announcing days in advance of shipping will not significantly impact sales of a GSM iPhone for AT&T and T-Mobile. (A T-Mobile announcement at the same time as the CDMA/LTE announcement might happen.) However, announcing a CDMA or CDMA/LTE iPhone months in advance of shipping WILL NOT HAPPEN. It would significantly impact sales of the GSM only iPhone. Apple wll not hurt itself like that.
Fourth.
A CDMA only iPhone shipping in caledar Q1 of 2011 does not make sense. Why ship a CDMA only iPhone then announce a CDMA/LTE iPhone in June/July? Also as has been noted, CDMA only iPhones will have severe limitations on their capabilities. A CDMA/LTE iPhone would get around these limitations for many users.
Fifth.
The optimum iPhone would be a CDMA/GSM/LTE iPhone. However, literally everything I have read points to such a chip being too power hungry and physically too large to fit into any of Apple’s current or near term designs. When you’re buying (as Apple does) these chips in quantities of millions, the cost differences in the chips is measured in pennies, not dollars. However, there are physical limitations on packing that much capability into one chip. Certainly, this will eventually happen. But with the current lithography nodes it is just not practical today.
Sixth.
Everyone should expect Apple to announce a GSM/LTE iPhone in the summer of 2011. AT&T and many other international carriers will have gotten their LTE roll out well under way by then. LTE will still only be in the major metropolitan areas, but this will spread to most urban areas long before the summer of 2012. Apple won’t want to be THAT far behind the power curve.
With Apple, think long term strategy. CDMA+JAN launch makes sense. They can even debut the White iPhone 4 especially for it.
If you sell Verizon customers a CDMA phone early 2011, and then in 12-24 months a new LTE phone, they’ll lick it up.
Internally for Apple, breaking up 2 major technology releases by 6 months initially will be a good thing for production, until a future date when all the technology can roll into one.
A conversation you haven’t heard:
ATT–“Steve, since your iPhone hogs use all our bandwidth, we want to go to tiered pricing.”
Steve–“Sorry, our exclusive contract says you provide $30 unlimited data till January 2012.”
ATT–“We’ll let you out early if we can go tiered now.”
Steve–“Ok, you can charge tiered for iPhone 4 but we go Verizon Jan 2011.”
ATT–“You are such a ball-buster. “
Apple needs to launch the iPhone on Verizon to take away the oxygen from the Android market.
@ MediaXYZ
> Why would Apple bother making a special CDMA version of the iPhone, when they would not be able to sell it anywhere else in the world?
Because the U.S. market is Apple’s single largest market. And the Chinese market can supposedly also use a CDMA-based iPhone, and that is obviously a potentially VERY large market.
For the U.S. market, it will make a significant difference in the total number of iPhones sold, if iPhone was a choice at Verizon. A lot of consumers are looking to buy a smartphone, but not specifically an iPhone, or an Android phone, or a Blackberry… If they walk into one of the numerous Verizon stores, the salesperson cannot offer an iPhone as a choice, if there is no Verizon iPhone. That’s a lost sale simply because iPhone was not even on the list of choices.
That’s why, as long as Apple can increase production to supply both ATT and Verizon (without significant waiting lists), Apple will sell significantly more iPhones if there was a Verizon phone. If Apple cannot sufficiently increase production to meet the increased demand from adding Verizon, THEN they might as well NOT do it; it won’t help them sell any more iPhones if ATT by itself is selling every iPhone as soon as it is produced.
Just because an iPhone is available in the Verizon store, it doesn’t mean the salesperson is going to sell it to you. He’ll push whichever phone has the highest margin and spiffs.
But as soon as it does show up, we can expect price wars and better plans, not to mention a boost in customer service.
CDMA/LTE in January, sold in China and to Verizon. New plant to boost production.
Dear Steve,
My sister was at my house while visiting from Denver. She tried her AT and T phone in the house and it would not pick up a signal. My T-Mobile phone works just fine in my house, thank you. Would you please allow the iPhone for T-Mobile? I’ll buy one that same day.
Thank you, silverhawk.
1) Contracts are broken/bought out all the time
2) Why miss the Christmas buying season
3) T-mobile is simply a tweak bandwise
4) Apple could play a big role within T-mobile an cut a much better deal than Verizon.
5) See #1
6) See #3 beside FCC approval would be fast tracked, if
in fact it has not already been done.
7) Verizon loves all this press, and is probably planting a
rumor two themselves.
Apple’s first iPhone was EDGE only. Then once ATT had the 3G system available then they came out with the 3G phone a year later.
This time around I would expect Apple to have a CDMA and LTE capable phone for Verizon. It would also make sense to have T-Mobile.
I’m guessing that Verizon have finally agreed to Apple’s terms and will relinquished their control over apps and music for this product.
If you look at a map of CDMA coverage around the world, you’ll see that CDMA is present in almost every reasonably big country of the world. There are many, many carriers outside of the US that use CDMA technology. The total number subscribers, though, is barely 500 million, compared to about 4.5 billion on one of the GSM flavours.
It obviously could be beneficial for Apple to put that Qualcomm CDMA-EVDO chip into an iPhone, not for Verizon, but for all other carriers out there.
Apple will do all the promoting of the iPhone like it does now on AT&T. You don’t see AT&T having the iPhone in there advertisements and this will also be true if it goes on any other carrier. Apple do not like carrier to use there phone to promote it’s self or to battle other competing carriers.
Apple iPhone 4 Reviews – Not Just Rumour:
http://www.aneesoft.com/tutorials/iphone/apple-iphone-4g-reviews.html
Gruber knows nothing.
If he thinks that Apple will ship an LTE phone in January of 2011. I’m mean, that’s stupid.
2010 was perepararion for LTE, 2011 is the testing year for LTE, 2012 will be the roll out years. That’s what the industry is telling.
When Apple launched the original iPhone 3G was where LTE today, more or less. People complained that there was no 3G iPhone but it didn’t make any sense to launch one. There was like no city with 3G. To think that Apple will ship an LTE iPhone next year makes me question if Gruber knows nothing at all?
Don’t listen to wood heads like Gruber that does not know anything about the industry it seems.