“Verizon is on the cusp of rolling out a next-generation 4G LTE network,” Gruber writes. “Wouldn’t it make sense for Apple to wait for LTE and skip CDMA altogether? That depends on the timing, I think. If Apple is willing to wait another year, or, if it simply takes another year to come to terms with Verizon, then sure, maybe the first Verizon iPhone will go straight to LTE. But if they want to start selling an iPhone on Verizon soon — meaning January — then CDMA is the only practical solution.”
“The whole point of expanding to Verizon is to gain market share in the U.S. It’s about high-volume iPhone sales, coast to coast,” Gruber writes. “A big part of the reason there’s so much demand for a Verizon iPhone is that so many people aren’t satisfied with AT&T’s coverage and quality. Even if their LTE rollout goes exactly as planned — a big “if” — LTE is going to be a niche technology in January, available in a few dozen cities. There may well be tens of million of Verizon customers in those cities, but Apple would want a Verizon iPhone to be aimed squarely at all Verizon customers. The message: ‘Everyone waiting for a Verizon iPhone: here it is.'”
“Which leads to the question of why launch a CDMA in January, rather than, say, waiting another six months and expanding to Verizon on the iPhone’s regular new-model-year schedule. In short: six months is a long time in this market,” Gruber writes. “I’m imagining a scenario like this. Release a CDMA iPhone 4 on Verizon in January. Sell it for six months, as a Verizon peer to the $199/299 iPhone 4 models at AT&T. Then, come June, unveil the fifth-generation iPhone during the WWDC keynote.”
There’s much more in the full article – recommended – here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “qka” for the heads up.]
Now that sounds more like it.
Which is what I’ve been saying all along.
Apple cannot afford to wait for LTE to become ubiquitous and CDMA will still be around for years to come, just as Edge was for 3G.
When Apple introduces a CDMA phone for Sprint and Verzion, it won’t make a bit of difference for anyone currently using AT&T. In other words, it won’t degrade your experience whatsoever.
Any features lacking on Sprint and Verizon’s part as far as iPhone is concerned won’t be Apple’s fault and the carriers will have to contend with those issues to bring it up to speed or suffer comparisons with AT&T’s feature set.
I would imagine anyone on the other carriers would love to have an iPhone on CDMA, even if they can’t do voice and data simultaneously. They can’t do it now, so it’s not like they’d be missing anything.
I am gonna Repeat What i have said here Before.
“Apple will not Make a CDMA only iPhone”
if anything, they may Produce a LTE iPhone with CDMA Fallback Capability.
I may be wrong, But time will Tell.
If Google is using CDMA in their Droid phones than Steve Jobs will want to reach out and touch Google. (By touch I mean, pound them into the ground.)
I think CDMA is used in other places around the world, so Apple would want to offer that AND POUND THE DROID INTO THE DIRT!
Is it so hard to make a world iPhone that houses both CDMA and GSM radios? I’ve been asking about this for years and we already have BlackBerries that have dual-network technology in them.
I don’t doubt this is true at this point. iPhone kills Android everywhere around the world except in the U.S. That is solely because of exclusivity with ATT. Apple may see margins decline by supporting CDMA with GSM, but the addition of Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile as new carriers will stifle the advancement of Googles Android. That is more important at this point than pure unit profit.
“six months is a long time in this market”
If six months was an onerous wait time Apple would not have given ATT a 5 year exclusive. Ordinarily I respect Gruber’s points, but this argument is just stupid, stupid, stupid.
Why on earth would Apple produce a limited utility, short lived CDMA version of the iPhone, when six months later Verizon’s crap CDMA network will be mostly LTE?
@rizzior & Gregg Thurman
I used to think like you do; this DF article convinced me otherwise.
I’m one of those people who lives & works where ATT still has only EDGE coverage, if they have coverage at all. (Even ATT voice is spotty.) Verizon coverage in my area is much better, and most of that area has their 3G. (Upstate NY)
As others above mentioned, Verizon CDMA isn’t going to shut down anytime soon – too many people are using it. LTE isn’t going to happen here in the hinterlands for years.
Going with Verizon would bring a lot of new customers to the iPhone. Unmentioned by Gruber, that would pull a lot of people away from Android.
Steve Jobs, as usual, is many moves ahead of the competition. The long contract with ATT was a necessary compromise to launch the iPhone in the US. Now Verizon is crawling back to Apple. The wanna-be master has been schooled, and now will do what Apple, the true master, bids.
Nothing more than media whores trying to stem the churn at verizon. When they thought that the droids were selling well this cdma phone news all but disappeared.
Now they really need to keep the – wait six months and the iPhone will be on verizon. It is obvious they choose a January date. The holiday quarter is critical. If tmobile gets the iPhone, VZ is kaput.
Does Steve want to do business with Ivan Seidenberg? Are you remembering the holiday ads where Ivan showed the iPhone on the island of misfit toys?
Do you think Steve remembers? I do.
I see T-mobile first, then Version LTE. I dont see Apple investing much on old tech.
A January release makes sense because till the end of the year Apple is busy to keep up with demand for their existing markets. With a Verizon release early next year they can preserve the high level of the holiday season.
Apple could surprise with the first 4G LTE capable smartphone and the easiest way to do that is take a regular CDMA receiver for a solid voice connection and add a 3G/4G SDR modem for a fast data connection. A Verizon mobile does not need a SIM card, so there is little board space left to add a second baseband chip.
I can’t wait for an iPhone on Verizon.
Don’t take that to mean something it doesn’t… I have no plans to switch carriers.
However, I do think that with another carrier (hopefully more) to help carry the burden of all the data-hungry iPhoners, network reliability will improve for all of us.
@kcwookie
wasn’t the first iPhone Edge exclusive? Old tech, huh?
Edge is still more ubiquitous than 3G and AT&T is still building out 3G.
LTE won’t be as prevalent as 3G for another four or five years. Major metro areas will be the first to get it and everyone else will be using CDMA until it arrives.
@BeyondTech
Qualcom has a hybrid chip, Snapdragon I believe, containing both radios, CDMA and GSM and it runs about ten cents a piece when bought in lots. If Apple used it, any iPhone could be carrier-agnostic.
Sprint’s 4G is exhibiting growing pains already and they can’t deploy it fast enough, so anyone who thinks Verizon will simply flip a switch to LTE overnight is going to be disappointed.
Wouldn’t it be just like Steve Jobs to announce at the special event in September, a hybrid iPhone coming to a network near you to bring in the New Year?
Freeze frame!
something still doesn’t make sense though…
Timing. It doesn’t make sense for Apple to start selling a model 6 months in January. It doesn’t make sense for them to have two different iPhone launches in one calendar year. I don’t people on Verizon would buy an iPhone in late january, early february knowing in 5 months they will be a newer even better iPhone, not even a calendar year to brag about their new phone. I know it’s about getting out there, but it kinda screws up their cycle. you know May introduce new iOS software, June introduce new model, June/July product launch. They have their groove and still are at least 2 years ahead of the competition which is huge in the industry.
I just don’t buy it. I believe it’s Verizon’s PR firm here trying to press Apple for a deal.
I know there reports about orders for the radio band, but don’t forget, some major companies dedicate a whole branch to China and china alone because of the different laws and regulations. It still doesn’t add up, the car salesman here is just finding new talking points.
It makes some sense to me given what was said above about Steve completely freezing the exodus to Android before the Christmas season and allowing people to preregister during December for a phone at the end of January. There are so many people who would be getting IOU’s for Christmas this year… would be devastating!
@peter.s.
I completely agree. Apple can’t make enough iPhone 4s right now. I think Apple is going to be selling every single iPhone 4 they can make for a few months.
Then the iPhone 4 demand (on AT&T) will let up around January. This is the perfect time for Apple to start cranking out CDMA phones. All those customers stuck on CDMA networks who want an iPhone will buy it, regardless if it’s in January.
Assuming Apple does come out with a CDMA phone in the next year, the only question is does the iPhone 5 support both GSM and CDMA next summer?
Apple can’t make enough GSM phones this summer. They’d have to make gazillions of them next summer if they’re also CDMA.
@ Vatdoro
I believe there is another rumor floating around that the CDMA iPhones will be manufactured at a different Foxconn-run factory. So that actually makes more sense than turning over part of the current production capacity to make CDMA iPhones. The current capacity will continue to make the current “ATT” iPhone while NEW capacity is added on top to make “Verizon” iPhones.
That’s really the only way it will work. Apple STILL has not matched iPhone supply to demand. Through the rest of this year, every bit production capacity is going to be needed, just to clear off those waiting lists. Apple is not going to open up a huge new distribution channel, unless there is an equivalent increase in production capacity (from that separate factory).
And all that is VERY exciting.
I agree that Apple is not going to wait until Verizon goes “4G.” Even if they wait until 2012, they will still have to offer an iPhone that can do CDMA, because an iPhone that only works in large metro areas (where the 4G network has been rolled out) will be unacceptable.
@blah
I agree. It doesn’t sound like Apple to embrace dying technology. They’ve usually been the first to kill off dying tech. The iPhone has the best ecosystem (sync, music store, app store, developer community) now whereas Google is trying to figure out how to make their app store work well without spreading malware or Trojans. There really is no real comparison out there. Why make a CDMA phone that can’t do data and voice simultaneously? It doesn’t make sense….
I can see if Apple rolls out a CDMA crap iPhone and then rolls out another 4G iPhone. Makes dollars and sense for Apple.
I don’t know if CDMA is the way to go at all for the iPhone. It will inhibit its ability to function like a GSM phone where it can transfer data while on a call. Not that it’s a big deal to most but I’ve done it before and it is really cool.
Make Verizon sweat longer and offer the iPhone to Sprint and T-Mobile first
“I see T-mobile first, then Version LTE. I dont see Apple investing much on old tech.”
Agreed. CDMA can’t match GSM, let alone LTE speeds. Nor can it do simultaneous voice/data processing. T-Mobile will happen long before Verizon.
US iPhone sales are growing as much because of those leaving Verizon as they are from within ATT’s network. iPhone sales are growing even more outside of the US. It would be nice if the Verizon rumor mongers looked beyond their noses, before writing another hit generating rumor. Unfortunately, we will have to endure more “iPhone coming to Verizon” rumors, before it actually happens, if ever.
my neighbor and close personal friend is a customer of Verizon wireless. He recently (within the last month) had to contact Verizon’s customer service about an issue. Before hanging up (the service was good), he asked the service rep when Verizon would be getting the iPhone. The answer was (paraphrasing):
“You already know that CDMA iPhones are being manufactured. you already know that Verizon is the largest CDMA carrier in North America. I can’t say any more than that, so you’ll have to connect the dots yourself…”
Not this again. The most free country and years later monopolizing, backroom agreements, and no iPhone on vzw. Why the ironclad black ops nature? Apple should just make a statement. Since they care about “each and every one of us”
The CDMA is for the China market. Enough with the hyped rumor mills.