Analyst: The next U.S. iPhone carrier will be T-Mobile, not Verizon

“Like most analysts, Kaufman Bros. Shaw Wu believes Apple will eventually end its exclusive relationship with AT&T and give the iPhone to other U.S. carriers — by 2011, most likely, and perhaps as early as this fall,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “But unlike most analysts, who are rooting for Verizon he believes T-Mobile will be the next carrier to get the device.”

In a note to clients, he ticks off the reasons:
• Like AT&T, T-Mobile runs a GSM network, although on different frequencies.
• Apple needs another carrier to compete with Google in the U.S.
• Verizon isn’t the only show in town

P.E.D. reports, “Says Wu: ‘It is notable that signing up both T-Mobile and Sprint would almost be the equivalent of signing Verizon.'”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “JES42” for the heads up.]

48 Comments

  1. Verizon doesn’t work in my house and they’re thugs- will never do business with them again. Sprint has been fine for us- Northeast, East Coast- even NYC!

    A friend visited our house with an iPhone, and AT & T worked. Sold!

  2. @ Eric LaRue

    It is highly doubtful that Apple is going to make a WiMax iPhone anytime soon (WiMax being the 4G tech Sprint is using.) Especially due to Apple’s affinity toward world standards. LTE is going to be the 4G standard when it is launched. AT&T;, Verizon, and the majority of the world’s carriers plan on adopting it for their 4G initiatives. Sprint more than likely will be left out in the cold unless Apple sees enough of a need to add WiMax ton the mix. Look at how long it has been and still no CDMA iPhone is available. LTE and WiMax will probably play out like GSM and CDMA.

    Apple likes standards. Standards give you a predicable outcome, a solid foundation to build your product. Reliability. Quality. These are things Apple strives for. These are things that make Apple’s products great.

    @ Lurker

    Steve Jobs did not just kill cellphones with FaceTime. He went with wifi basically for the reasons I stated in the above paragraph. He is all about quality and reliability and giving the user a great experience. It is obvious that he does not believe that currently AT&T;is going to be able to do that yet with their 3G network. At least not without significant testing to make sure they get it just right. Just like cut and paste, multi-tasking, etc. Besides, wifi is not as fully penetrated as one would like to think. I am remind of that every time I take my iPad out into the wild. Not to mention, the carriers would probably prefer you to make calls via wifi in the home as that takes a burden off of their networks and remedies a major complaint they all have trouble with at some time or other.

    Also getting into the cellular business is not the same as getting into the music business. The vast majority of people hate their cellphone company, and largely for things that are outside of the carriers ability to remedy either quickly or cheaply. Owning a cellphone company whether WiMax, LTE, GSM or CDMA would probably end up tarnishing Apple’s image. I will say this though, if someone could figure out how to do it right it would be Steve Jobs no matter what he said at D8.

    @G4Dualie

    I agree with your take on Apple and their CDMA initiative. I also believe this makes more of a case for the fact that we will not see a CDMA phone in the states until AT&T;’s contract has expired. By that point Apple will have the manufacturing and distribution set up for the CDMA phones and they will come hot and heavy with them, both barrels blazing. HTC, Google, Motorola, Samsung, Nokia, won’t know what hit them. Manufactures will be the biggest losers once the iPhone goes multi-carrier, not the carriers themselves.

    I don’t agree about the hybrid phone though. I think that goes against what Apple is. Do something and do it great. A great GSM version and a great CDMA version is better than a hybrid that may have to much going on under the hood to provide the customer with a consistent and reliable experience.

  3. Anyone know how the hardware for cdma compares to the micro sim in the iphone 4? It seems like they hard a hard time squeezing that in. I wonder if the additional hardware Is something that would fit the form factor.

  4. This is better news than anything Jobs said in the WWDC keynote !!!!!!!!

    @ renaldo”
    “T-Mobile’s 3G network is still very spotty and undeveloped, as far as I can see.”

    T-Mobile indeed does not cover significant swathes of rural areas. However, anyone who lives/works/plays within a few miles distance of an interstate is good to go on T-Mobile. That covers the vast majority of users. Stop looking at the misleading maps put out by Verizon and AT&T;and instead look around your local area where you spend most of your life.

    “The German parent company hasn’t invested near as much as the domestic carriers in their data network, and I don’t see how T-Mobile will ever pony up the investment capital to compete.”

    This is obvious – they are a smaller company, how can you expect them to outspend the big 2. Apple spends less on development than Microsoft, does that mean MS has better products? As far as i can see, Verizon and AT&T;are busy investing in ad wars rather that product quality and consumer value. Thanks for highlighting that T-Mobile is German. By virtue of necessity of competing on quality rather than price alone, I consider that usually German = better (and Chinese = frequently disposable junk not worth buying). Of course these aren’t hard rules, but national economic positions do tend to work that way.

    “The only chance T-Mobile will ever have in the US with high-speed data is if it acquired Sprint.”

    Baloney. You have a very short-sighted crystal ball. Sprint = dead man walking.

    “Unless they offered give-away service plans, I don’t see how anyone would be tempted away from ATT to go to T-Mobile, especially with ATT working toward 4G. Having the iPhone on the T-Mobile network would be a joke.”

    I likely will be the very first in line to get an iPhone from T-Mobile. And no, it will not be a joke. T-Mobile has better pricing in general and vastly better customer service than any other wireless carrier in the USA. Their only major drawbacks are handset offerings and sheer network size — the first of which will be quickly remedied with the addition of the iPhone, the second of which doesn’t affect me whatsoever.

  5. @G4 Dualie,
    Apple is producing a CDMA for the Chinese market, NOT because of a pending deal with Verizon. Their deal with AT&T;runs out in 2012, so IF the iPhone was to appear on Verizon, it won’t be until then.

  6. Tmobile has been touting the iPhone on their network for years. At the local fair a tmobile rep tried to sell me his services. I said I liked tmobile but wanted the iPhone. He pulled out the iPhone and gold me that the iPhone works fine on their network.

  7. @nope: broadcasting on a different frequency is easy. Arguably, it means less interference (dropped calls) from competitors too. It is far less complicated than changing to a different packet encoding technology such as CDMA. T-Mobile does use the GSM technology — the GLOBAL STANDARD — that any qualcomm multi-frequency chip will support. I sincerely hope that Apple goes next to T-Mobile to expand its iPhone business. Solely from a technological standpoint, it’s the most logical step.

  8. You can analyze the reasons all you want, It all depends on . . .

    1. When the contract with ATT ends.

    2. How quickly carrier candidates realize that Apple is in-charge of the iPhone.

  9. 1- GSM 900/1800mhz is used not only in Europe, but also in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania
    2- GSM 850/1900Mhz is not only used in USA, but also in Canada and Latin America

    tmobile USA uses a radio frequency band (1700/2100 MHz)(AWS Band) for its 3G network

    iPhone supports UMTS/HSDPA/HSUPA (850, 900, 1900, 2100 MHz)
    GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz)

    see the problems here people. iPhone would need to support the 1700 frequency. There are technical facts that you must look at instead of just throwing shit around.

  10. When I called AT&T;last week to ask about the unlimited drop the service rep accidentally killed my unlimited plan. Looking at my usage page on the web I noticed a notation at the bottom of the page detailing this. When I phoned them to tell them I hadn’t dropped my unlimited plan, they apologized, fixed it back to unlimited and gave me a $30 credit for the inconvenience. That feels like world class customer service to me.

  11. My iphone works great on T-mobile. I don’t need data. The iphone does everything I need it to using wifi. Data is an added expense that, for me, isn’t needed. I’ve had my iphone on T-mobile for over a year and I’m running 3.1.2.

    I’ve got a 3gs sitting here to replace my 3g when iOS 4 comes out.

  12. Adding Verizon won’t “ease” the loan on ATT’s network for the following reasons:

    1. People are locked into 2 year ATT contracts, so no “mass exodus” would happen.
    2. Millions of Verizon users would buy iPhones, resulting in more sales and more traffic on Verizon’s network. That’s more iPhone data users overall, not less.
    3. Verizon would experience problems handling all those iPhone users just like ATT did.

    Verizon is not some “heaven on earth” that people will escape to, shedding the shackles of ATT. If anything, Verizon is more controlling and rigid in its policies. That’s one of the big reasons Apple did not partner with Verizon in the beginning – Verizon wanted to control everything, including iTunes, etc.

    I had a Moto RAZR before the iPhone came out, and if I wanted to download photos taken on the phone to my Mac I had to buy software from Verizon to do so. The same phone on Cingular, Sprint, T-Mobile had no such restrictions. Why? Because Verizon wanted to bilk its customers for everything it could. Nothing has changed here, either.

    Also note in the recent flap over ATT’s new data pricing structure that Verizon’s advertised “unlimited” data plan is actually limited to 5 GB. Yet Verizon calls it unlimited. At least ATT’s plan really was unlimited.

  13. @bizlaw

    Yes, you have the two year contracts that people are locked into. But those two year contracts do eventually expire. I suspect there would be some iPhone users, however small the number, who would be willing to pay the early termination fee the moment another provider becomes available. I’m also sure there will be a much larger number who will make that switch once their contract expires and they can make the switch without the fee. A mass exodus, no, but an exodus nonetheless (no matter who it’s to).

  14. @ the unnamed person who posted as “@mike”:

    let’s get even more specific: we’re speculating future iPhone 4G possibilities. Nobody’s come forward and confirmed the capability of the chip in the new iPhone, they’re just going off the current Apple disclosures. (And we all know Apple doesn’t have to reveal all its cards).

    Apple has disclosed that the iPhone 4G supports GSM/EDGE at 850/900/1800/1900 MHz as well as UMTS/HSDPA/HSUPA 850/900/1900/2100 MHz.

    ATT offers UMTS or 3G at 850mhz (the old TDMA band) and 1900mhz.

    T-Mobile offers HSDPA (3.5g part of the UMTS specification) at 1700MHz for upload and 2100MHz download.

    Let’s all hope that Apple did toss in support for T-Mobile’s network at 1700 MHz. There is no technical reason to assume it is not possible _yet_. The truth will be revealed when iP4G is released to the wild. Why else would Apple offer 2100 MHz???

  15. @Mike
    Well said my Friend, Plus all this Confusion & Misleading statements about T-Mobile Bands is Pure Garbage.
    The iPhone 4 Has the same 3G “Penta Bands” as the Nokia N8.
    These are the only two Phones that we know of, as of today that has
    2G Network
    GSM 850 / 900 / 1800 / 1900
    3G Network
    HSDPA 850 / 900 / 1700 / 2100 /1900

    T-Mobile USA uses (850 / 1700 / 2100)
    The iPhone 4 is truly a World Phone, so lets hope it happens Sooner than Later, and for those who thinks Magenta’s 3G Network Sucks needs to Read this,
    ( http://www.intomobile.com/2010/06/04/data-speed-showdown-sprint-4g-vs-t-mobile-hspa.html ) & this ( http://androinica.com/2010/03/24/t-mobiles-3g-network-is-faster-than-sprints-4g-network-huh/ ) & be informed.

  16. This is what I’ve been waiting for. And I don’t care if 3G is Spotty and that it’s mostly an edge network.

    Besides, when want to use the internet, I’m usually near a WiFi hotspot. So Edge is no big deal.

    I use my 4+ Y/O Moto RAZR and when I plan to use the net, I bring my ipod touch along. iPhone on t-mobile will eliminate me have to bring 2 device along.

  17. It’s me from early. the original @mike

    http://www.engadget.com/2010/06/07/iphone-4-hits-fcc-becomes-worlds-second-announced-pentaband-3g/

    I’m just tired of the rumors for T-Mobile and Verizon/Sprint. the highlight of that article is
    “…five bands of 3G internet compatibility: UMTS I/II/V/VI/VIII. Which is all sorts of interesting, since Apple omits one of them — the 800MHz band VI, most commonly used in JAPAN– on the iPhone 4’s specs page…”

    I know T-mobile is good in some big cities, but it is shit nationally. The reason for being number 4. But the iPhone won’t be coming to Tmobile officially due to them trying to go against the flow of accepted standard that their European branch even uses, which is weird that wouldn’t use the same bands here. They probably omitted the 800hz from the penta chip because we don’t use it in the states, but Japan does, i am sure in Japan’s FCC or whatever it is listed. We dunno, i just know what the chip limitations are and 1700hz is not on the iPhone. and this iPhone4G is a whole year away, that’s even IF Apple adopts LTE that early.

    I understand some people are upset with at&t;’s performance, but right now they are the only one who can play with Apple and with what Apple is trying to produce.

  18. I understand the GSM commonality factor as a rationale to speculate that the iPhone will come to T-Mobile, but what about customer numbers? T-Mobile has 33 million customers, approximately, compared with over 100 million on Verizon’s CDMA network. Sprint, which also runs a CDMA network, and despite losing some customers of late, has 48 million or so. Apple should want to get the phone into the hands of as many potential customers as possible and grow the iOS user base. Releasing a CDMA version of the iPhone at some point in the future makes sound business sense.

  19. its easy to say, just make the phone for CDMA customers, but once again that isn’t where the puck is. CDMA is an old technology at its crossroads. It doesn’t offer the same capabilities as GSM(voice and data at the same time) This has been a huge difference between the two companies. Steve jobs said it. there was so much about the cell phone game that needed to be understood. You can’t just change the chip and boom big hit. Apple would have to RnD the signal, they would have to create a whole new customer service duo with verizon and tmobile and sprint to give that amazing customer service they have. There are too many factors that weigh against it here in the US. Europe is easy to give multiple providers, they all use the same standard wavebands, things are more complicated in the States unfortunately.

    But remember Apple is about to sell it’s 100millionth iOS device. I think they are happy. Look apple owns 28% market share with 1 phone and 1 carrier. I think they are doing something right.

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